Bitcoin is one step away from its next crash

First of all, I want to discuss a question with you. In the Bitcoin trading market, should we use futures or spot as a reference when studying prices? At present, Bitcoin futures trading is a minefield that many analysts dare not touch. The reason is that futures trading itself does not create profits, it belongs to a zero-sum market, and the risk is too high. Another point is that in the Bitcoin disaster in 2014, many people lost money on futures, and futures took the blame. Traders kept scolding and irrationally believed that futures were the culprit. Bitcoin futures are not well received in public opinion, so many analysts ignore it.
However, I believe that the analysis of Bitcoin price trends should start from the futures market. It would be incomplete to analyze the trends without considering either the futures or spot markets.
Old coins explained from two aspects
1. Conceptually
Baidu Encyclopedia - Futures
Since futures trading is a contract transaction for forward delivery of commodities that is conducted publicly, a large amount of market supply and demand information is concentrated in this market. Different people from different locations have different understandings of various information, and they have different views on forward prices through public bidding. The futures trading process actually comprehensively reflects the expectations of both supply and demand parties on the changes in supply and demand relations and price trends at a certain time in the future . This kind of price information is continuous, open and predictable , which is conducive to increasing market transparency and improving resource allocation efficiency.
This is the price discovery function of futures. The concept is very clear and I will not elaborate on it.
2. In objective facts
You can review the K-line and you will find that no matter whether it goes up or down, the time when the big market appears is the change of the market, which is mostly concentrated from Thursday afternoon to Saturday morning. There is rarely a smooth transition. The reason is obvious, that is, the delivery. The delivery time of the bitvc weekly contract is 12:00 noon every Friday, the OKCoin weekly contract is 16:00 on Friday afternoon, and the 796 weekly contract is 10:00 on Saturday morning. There is no doubt that before the contract delivery, both the long and short sides will fight to the death and launch fierce offense and defense. This battle will start from Thursday afternoon to Saturday morning.
As for the battlefield, Laobi, who likes conspiracy theories, believes that small investors may only trade on one of the platforms, while the dealer will choose three or at least two of them, one for concealment and the other for the winning rate.
Bitcoin is one step away from its next crash

If you agree with what Laobi said before - to analyze the trend of Bitcoin price, we should start from the futures market. It is incomplete to analyze the trend without analyzing the futures or spot market . Then let's get back to the point and see why "Bitcoin is one step away from the next plunge".

Please look at the daily time-sharing chart of the quarterly contract of Bitcoin futures, at the golden section line of 50%. In the past month, the price has rebounded several times when testing the 50% position, leaving a lower shadow line, indicating that this support line is very strong and has great reference value. However, the 0.618 above cannot be broken through, indicating that the bulls and bears are very entangled.

Coincidentally, in the Bitcoin spot market, the price fell to 0.618, and it also rebounded after several attempts, with the shadow line not ending. Some friends may wonder, "Didn't you say that the analysis should start from the futures market? What are you looking at now?" Laobi wants to emphasize that the analysis of Bitcoin price trends should be based on futures, but it is not comprehensive to analyze the trend without analyzing either futures or spot . Then why is the futures price 0.5 and the spot price 0.618? Futures have a premium, and futures will be liquidated. Once a liquidation occurs, it is normal for the price to move a few dozen points in the direction of the trend.
That is to say, as long as Bitcoin falls below this support line, what awaits us is a sharp drop, the futures price may reach 2190 in the quarter, and the spot price may reach 2150. It is also possible that they may not reach at the same time. When the futures price reaches the position, it may cause a rebound, and then the spot price will be worse.
Sandwiched between support and resistance, why is it more likely to fall?

Since it has failed several times at the support level and has also turned back several times at the resistance level, why is it more likely to fall?

There are two aspects. One is that the daily trading volume is decreasing, and the other is that there is more downward demand on the weekly time-sharing chart.
Recommendations
Aggressive friends can short with a small position, but they must have sufficient margin and set a stop loss. Here is a reminder that the stop loss must be set automatically. Don’t think about closing the position manually when you reach the position. Believe me, when you reach that point, you will not close it.
Conservative friends may continue to wait and follow up after the daily line is confirmed to have broken the support line, and beware of the previous multiple attempts to retrace.

The possibility of an increase is not ruled out here, it is just a possibility.

Text/Laobi More Discussion