Lao Mao said: Ethereum is becoming more and more dangerous!

Starting today, I will make a new assessment of the future of Ethereum . If the previous assessment of Ethereum conflicts with this one, this one shall prevail!

Even the theft of the DAO didn’t worry me that much;

Even if the soft fork fails, it doesn’t worry me that much;

But after the "successful" hard fork, now I'm really a little worried...

Here are the reasons why I am concerned about ETH and ETC:

Replay attacks will cause a large amount of ETH and ETC to be lost!

As Yunbi.com’s announcement states:

ETH and ETC have the same origin and are in fact the same species. Therefore, except for the safe isolation of ETC and ETH when ETC assets have no value, they will be very susceptible to "replay attacks" due to the same reasons as blockchains .

To solve the replay problem, our exchange has professionals who have spent a lot of time thinking about and solving it. For ordinary users, they may not even understand the concept, let alone solve it. What’s more frightening is that this is not a bug, and no team has the ability or obligation to solve it. This is an unavoidable problem for blockchains that share the same roots. This problem will be like an unavoidable curse that will plague the entire process of ETH. At least before ETH changes to POS, it is hopeless to solve it. And this loss will not only happen on ETC, but also on ETH, which is chilling.

The fear of zombies following you everywhere!

The ETHC team claims that they will FORK ETH forever. Well, it is just a zombie that follows you forever. Not to mention whether this zombie will devour its original owner, it is impossible to predict how much damage these two identical blockchains will cause. If a normal project is always followed by a zombie, it will become an abnormal project, which will scare people to the point of losing interest in participating.

Buy one get one free is not sustainable!

Some people say that the current market is a rights-filling market, which is a joke. In fact, there is no rights filling. At best, it is a split, and it is the result of a large amount of capital speculation. In the future, "rights-filling" is almost inevitable. The current situation of continuous speculation of large amounts of funds is unsustainable. How big is the current capital? On the hottest day, the transaction volume of ETC on P network is equivalent to the total transaction volume of Bitcoin in all trading markets around the world . Don't you think it's scary? The tide comes fast and retreats fast. We must have awe of the market.

Risk aversion under the law of the jungle.

P Network released a statement yesterday about the launch of ETC trading, which included a sentence:

To those who object, we want to say: This is cryptocurrency after all!

The subtext of this sentence is: If we master the technology, we master everything. Don't talk nonsense. It's our business to do what we want. This is the typical law of the jungle, where the strong have the final say. Real investors will be very disgusted by such a jungle philosophy without rules and warmth. Once a large number of investors flee because of this uncertainty, the price of Ethereum will naturally collapse.

The large amount of ETC in the hands of hackers is a time bomb!

Don't forget why ETC exists. That is the reason for the fork. The fork was carried out to turn the original ETH in the hands of hackers into worthless ETC. However, when ETC became valuable, things became weird. The 11 million ETC in the hands of hackers could be dumped into the market at any time. This number is equivalent to 50% of the daily trading volume of P network during its peak period. This is a very scary number, and this time bomb will definitely explode when you least expect it. If you are trapped at this time, you will basically never be able to turn around. Therefore, everyone should be very cautious about participating in ETC and must control the risks. This thing is not an idealistic trading product, but a product of pure speculation. This speculation started with P network and will eventually end with retail investors taking over after the hackers sell off.

Without enough nodes, the connection isn't just slow!

Since ETC is an abandoned old chain, it can only rely on copying and updating the code, and it has no ideological system of its own. Therefore, it is impossible for it to become something great. Its reasonable price is at most 10% of Ethereum. The part exceeding this is caused by speculative factors. Once the price enters a stable range, the income from mining will be greatly reduced. Due to the copycat nature of this coin, the selling pressure is stable, but the price will tend to zero. There will be fewer and fewer miners, fewer and fewer nodes, and the connection will become slower and more difficult, eventually dying.

Big investors will quietly leave the market for any of the above reasons, leaving retail investors to enjoy their dreams.

This point is the same as the previous one, it just emphasizes that real big investors are afraid of risks. If they figure out any of the above points, they will be willing to leave. From what I know, some big investors have already quietly withdrawn, and no one will be left behind. Finally, when the tide recedes, a bunch of ignorant and fearless small investors will be left swimming naked, and it is almost inevitable that they will be beaten to death on the beach.

Operation suggestions:

Please reduce your position! Please reduce your position! Please reduce your position!

Important things should be said three times!

It may take a very long time until Ethereum has been tested for a long time and is confirmed to be safe.

For something so risky, just miss it. Not everyone needs to climb to the summit of the Himalayas.

As for ETC, it is a purely speculative product. It is hard to imagine that any reliable project will run on it. There is room for speculation in the short term, but it is bearish in the long term. This view is for reference only.

In the world of investment, being alive is more respectable than being brave.

Overview of other varieties (omitted)