Trump wins big, global markets oscillate, Bitcoin surges

The results of the US election, which attracted worldwide attention, were announced today. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump defeated Democratic candidate and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to win the presidential election and will become the 45th president of the United States.

On November 9th, Beijing time, as the US election vote count continued to be released, global markets fluctuated, and many assets recorded the largest amplitude since Brexit:

The S&P and Nasdaq circuit breakers were triggered, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 800 points; the situation in emerging market stocks was not optimistic, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling 3.2%, the biggest drop since June 24; the Mexican peso fell 13%, a record low; the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 4.0%, and the Nikkei index fell more than 1,000 points.

Global stock markets "flash crashed", and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.6% at one point. However, a stock called "Sichuan University Zhisheng" in the A-share market miraculously rose by more than 6%. Another stock, "Xiyi Shares", fell nearly 9% as the election results were announced one after another.

While the stock market fell, Bitcoin, gold and other currencies rose sharply. Gold rose by 4.3%, breaking through $1,330 per ounce. Many investors see Hillary as a presidential candidate who "continues the status quo" and whose policies are unlikely to inject too much volatility into the market. On the contrary, the Oxford Economics Institute in the UK once released a report saying that if Trump is eventually elected as the US president, the size of the US economy in 2021 will be about $100 billion less than if Hillary is elected. At the same time, analysts generally believe that the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policy proposals will push up the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold.

The price of Bitcoin rose by nearly 3%, approaching RMB 5,000 again. According to CoinMarketCap.com, a large number of Bitcoin transactions were conducted in US dollars, which means that American investors drove the rise of Bitcoin. Compared with the expectation that Trump will win the presidential election, the news that "the People's Bank of China is studying measures to restrict disguised exchange of Bitcoin" has limited impact on the market.

As people's risk aversion sentiment rises, Bitcoin's risk aversion characteristics are highlighted again. According to the CEO of a Bitcoin futures trading platform:

“Uncertainty will cause more harm to the market. During this period, I expect Bitcoin and gold to have a big performance. Add the threat of the Fed raising interest rates and the depreciation of the RMB, and you may see Bitcoin rise to $1,000.”