Bitcoin has experienced a strong breakthrough. Where does the confidence for its rise come from?

On the last day of November, Bitcoin, which had been sideways for four days, experienced a strong breakthrough. According to OKCoin data, the opening price today was 5169.38 yuan. At 15:41 in the afternoon, the price of the currency reached a high of 5259.1 yuan, an increase of 89.72 yuan, accounting for 1.7%.

Tomorrow we will enter the last month of 2016. Let's look back rationally and look forward to the future. At the same time, as a Bitcoin player, you should pay more attention to the rise and fall of Bitcoin. Should you give it a try or hold on to your wallet tightly? OKCoin analysts have compiled the following news analysis that is worth reading.

Real estate speculation funds move in large numbers, hot money flows into Bitcoin

The intensive regulation of the property market during the National Day holiday triggered policy changes in the real estate market in many places. However, under the influence of intensive regulation, combined with the subsequent release of a series of supporting measures, the pressure of this real estate regulation has also increased, which is also a fatal blow to the high-leverage speculators in the early stage.

It is undeniable that in the past decade or so, the value preservation and appreciation effect of real estate, especially first-tier real estate, has been quite significant, which has led to the argument that the first-tier real estate market "can only rise but not fall". However, in this world, it is difficult for a product to "only rise but not fall" to exist for a long time, and when the price far exceeds its value, it is still inseparable from the process of price return.

The real estate market is shrouded in dark clouds and may cool down sharply

At present, the real estate market has cooled down slightly, but it is still not enough to establish a real turning point. While the lethal heavy-duty policies have not yet been officially implemented, the expectation of value preservation and appreciation in the real estate market is still favored by many investors. However, the recent cooling performance of the real estate market has more or less guided some liquidity to other investment channels, and Bitcoin, as the best safe-haven asset, has undoubtedly become the focus of this hot money.

Funds are essentially profit-seeking, that is, they will go wherever there is a sustainable money-making effect. Therefore, once Bitcoin, which has been dormant for a long time, gradually becomes active and forms a sustainable money-making effect, various funds are expected to accelerate their entry into Bitcoin to seek better value-added effects.

Remember the Brexit referendum in June this year? This event brought the biggest black swan event in the international financial history in recent years: international oil prices plummeted by 6%, global stock prices fell by varying degrees, the British pound fell by 10.47% on the same day, and the US 10-year Treasury bond yield plummeted by 12.5%. Almost all of them plummeted, except for Bitcoin, which soared by 50%.

The impact of Brexit has not yet faded, and Italy will hold a constitutional referendum this Sunday, the result of which will determine whether Italy will leave the EU. This Italian constitutional referendum is seen as the biggest single risk to the European political landscape in the second half of the year, because the political fate of Italian centrist Prime Minister Renzi may depend on the result of the referendum.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi

If the Five Star Movement wins this referendum, we will witness the largest financial crisis in history. Italy's referendum to leave the EU may become the biggest risk point in European politics this year. Under the influence of the butterfly effect, its lethality will far exceed that of the British referendum.

However, this financial turmoil will inevitably cause more people to enter the Bitcoin market to seek asset refuge. Therefore, as the news is gradually released and the referendum approaches, compared with the surge in Bitcoin caused by Brexit, I believe that with the development of Italy's Brexit, the initial estimate of Bitcoin's market is relatively optimistic.

Currently, the market generally expects the Fed to raise interest rates again in December. The market speculates that Trump's reflationary policy will mean faster monetary tightening. Bloomberg's calculations based on federal funds futures contracts show that the market implies that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates at the December 13-14 meeting has reached 100% for the first time.

Of course, as mentioned before, the December rate hike also depends on two other factors: first, the strength of various U.S. economic indicators supports the Fed's interest rate hike policy; second, the Fed's monetary policy must reserve space and leeway.

Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve

Recently, the US dollar has continued to rise and entered a strong range. This will inevitably lead to a sharp depreciation of other countries' currencies, especially the euro, pound, yen, and renminbi in the SDR. Once the Fed raises interest rates in December, the US dollar will continue to strengthen from now until the Fed's interest rate meeting on December 12, and the exchange rates of other countries' fiat currencies will continue to fall. The price of Bitcoin may rise passively.

On December 17 last year, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, the first rate hike by the Federal Reserve since June 2006. As a result, the price of Bitcoin rose from 1,500 yuan to 2,800 yuan in two months, almost doubling.

In general, with the cooling of the property market, the Italian referendum, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, Bitcoin may usher in another climax before the end of the year.