It is absolutely impossible for Ethereum to surpass Bitcoin

Recently many people have said that Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin. I think this is impossible. Not only do I say this, I also do it. I decided to short Ethereum with Bitcoin myself.

1. Ether Riding the Bull, Soaring Up:

On January 1, 2017, the opening price of Ethereum was 57. In the following 5 months, the price of this coin rose by nearly 11 times to 620, and it is still rising. Investing is actually very simple. Form the right values ​​- wait for opportunities - invest heavily - hold firmly. Investing is actually difficult, because it is rare to form the right values, and it is also difficult to make judgments. If the values ​​are deviated, it will be counterproductive.

Second, the bearish logic has not changed:

In June 2016, TheDAO, the largest crowdfunding project on Ethereum, was attacked. The project, which raised more than 150 million US dollars, lost more than 3.6 million ether. In July 2016, the Ethereum team modified the code of the Ethereum software and forcibly transferred all the funds of TheDAO to a specific refund contract address in block 1920000. In this way, the coins controlled by the hacker were obtained, thus forming two paths, one for the original chain (ETC) and the other for the new fork (ETH). This is incredible. It is like the bitcoins of Bitfinx were stolen by hackers, and then Bitcoin took a rollback transaction for a hard fork. If such a thing happened, it would mean that Bitcoin's credit would be bankrupt. Fortunately, such a thing has never happened to Bitcoin. However, the Ethereum Foundation chose such a way to take back their assets. What is even more ironic is that TheDAO project itself is a decentralized organization project. In the absence of a consensus in the community, even the central bank would not take the approach of changing the blockchain to recover the coins lost due to its own negligence. We also saw a series of events that followed. The price of ETH plummeted, falling to a low of more than 40. Of course, it rose to more than 600 today.

3. Start to be bearish

Many people may have the same idea as me. After this incident, they began to be skeptical and hostile to Ethereum. First, they were worried that the foundation of blockchain (which cannot be tampered with) would be shaken; second, they were worried that the foundation would be arbitrary and might continue to make mistakes. According to my personality habits, I began to study this. After continuous analysis and collation, I came to a firm conclusion.

In October 2016, ETCWIN, the first application of ETC, was established. Subsequently, ETC rose from a low of more than 5 yuan to 50 yuan, which was more than 10 times. The ETC I bought rose 10 times in an instant. In the same year, the boss of FACTCOIN personally flew to Shanghai to sponsor the ETC hackathon. Unfortunately, the event did not take place in the end. Factcoin is a company that records data on the Bitcoin blockchain to achieve fairness. The result is recognized by the US government. For safety reasons, he also recorded the data on the Ethereum blockchain. After the The dao incident, his client and regulator had doubts about it and no longer recognized the fairness of ETH, because ETH proved that it was a blockchain controlled by the foundation and could be changed for profit. Therefore, FACTCOIN is likely to record the data on ETC.

4. The road is bumpy. When the bull market comes, the price of the currency rises every day, which tests your determination.

The bull market is definitely a big blow to those who are bearish on Ethereum. Those who are shorting Ethereum must have been hit many times. Moreover, we have discovered a new problem: Microsoft and a group of bigwigs have begun to support Ethereum. The participation of these bigwigs will greatly promote the implementation of Ethereum. As for Bitcoin, which we have always been optimistic about, there is also a huge uncertainty because of the quarrel between BU and CORE. Then, many people have heavy positions. If they easily say that they are bearish on Ethereum, someone will immediately refute and ridicule them, and they will even be kicked out of the group. Bearishness and short-selling are condemned by everyone. The first difficulty of shorting Ethereum is approaching.

Yesterday, I wrote "M-head established, ETH can't escape a cliff-like plunge", expressing my determination in words. I have decided to hold on. Since the reasons for being bearish have not changed, and the price has risen more than 10 times, it may be a good choice to take a left-side trade to short Ethereum now, waiting for time to turn into money.

2017 is a year of rapid development of Bitcoin. First, Japan recognized Bitcoin as a legal means of payment, and then big players such as Bitcame quickly followed suit. In the Roppongi area of ​​Japan, it is easier to find merchants that support Bitcoin than those that support UnionPay. The reasons for holding Bitcoin are getting stronger and stronger, because the uncertainty is getting less and less. The news of Bitcoin ETFs has also made people full of reverie about whether Bitcoin can enter the mainstream capital market: there is light at the end of the tunnel, and it is not impossible.

5. Start shorting

On May 4, 2016, which is Youth Day as we all know it, the price of Ethereum rose by 17% in one day. And the trend is still rising, which is a crazy market. It means that more and more people in the market accept that Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin, and it also represents the expectation that perhaps good things are coming.

Yesterday, I started to short Ethereum, and my position was not light, about 1/4 of it was used. I don’t believe that Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin. In other words, the day Ethereum surpasses Bitcoin is also the day my position is liquidated. Can the alliance chain ETH, which is disguised as a public chain, surpass Bitcoin? Too optimistic, right? We know that it is very rare for the first place to surpass the second place. At least all the combined reasons of the second place must be 10 times stronger than the first place. Now I can tell you clearly that it is absolutely impossible for Ethereum to surpass Bitcoin. Ethereum’s credit has long been bankrupt, and credit is the core of the blockchain. The alliance chain, just like the local area network, has no future. The Ethereum alliance chain is the biggest bubble in the blockchain.

6. Some thoughts

When Ethereum plummeted, everyone could not accept the fork of Ethereum. Now that the price of the currency has risen, the situation has reversed. However, I wonder, if this bull market had not come and the price of Ethereum had not exploded so fiercely, would everyone still be so determined to believe that Ethereum would surpass Bitcoin? Would holding Ethereum also face huge confusion of uncertainty? We can review the past, but the future is always unknown. What I hope most at present is to find that Bitcoin has a broad future prospect. The current valuation base is seriously underestimated and can be held for the long term. I will not miss such a short-selling opportunity.

I first came into contact with Bitcoin in 2011. At that time, I did not expect that my position would be so heavy (especially after I went to Japan in 2017), nor did I expect that the process would be so bumpy. Today, although Bitcoin is still a niche, I can already discuss it calmly. So I would like to share my thoughts with my friends who are fighting on the front line.