‘Bitcoin Independence Day’: Can Users Turn the Tables in the Scaling Debate on August 1 with BIP 148?

While a number of proposals have emerged in recent years aimed at improving the digital currency’s protocol, few have attracted as many followers as BIP 148.

BIP 148 was drafted to unite the community behind a User Activated Soft Fork (UASF), a proposal that differs from the others in that it is much less dependent on the support of Bitcoin network miners. In fact, BIP 148 is the UASF with the shortest implementation timeline — BIP 148 will be activated on August 1.

Some dismiss BIP 148’s growing support as a kind of populist uprising, while others argue that BIP 148 will give users more control over the direction of the Bitcoin protocol. As always, the Bitcoin community remains divided.

Because BIP 148 is a change designed to circumvent the need for miner signaling to activate SegWit, this scaling solution has been favored by Bitcoin Core developers, with some even calling the BIP 148 upgrade date “ Bitcoin Independence Day .”

BIP 148 developer and supporter Alphonse Pace told CoinDesk:

“There is no way to put BIP 148 back into Pandora’s box today. The code is out; the economic nodes are already running it. Either we split on August 1st or we activate SegWit .

What we know and don’t know

So what exactly does BIP 148 do?

BIP 148 is an atypical user-activated soft fork (UASF) that attempts to encourage users to push miners to upgrade to the SegWit version - some miners have been running SegWit in their Bitcoin software since November last year. According to calculations, more than 80% of Bitcoin nodes are ready to activate SegWit.

BIP 148 will take effect on August 1, 2017, at which point miners will have to signal to the Bitcoin network that they are ready for SegWit by creating blocks using the "bit 1" version. Nodes compatible with BIP 148 will reject blocks from miners who have not signaled the upgrade.

But it’s hard to say what will happen after that.

If the majority of hashrate signals support BIP 148, then the entire Bitcoin network is expected to follow the BIP 148 chain. Otherwise, the Bitcoin network may split, resulting in two separate blockchains, two different transaction histories, and two different tradable Bitcoin assets.

Some have released guidelines to prepare for these situations, detailing how users can keep their funds safe if this were to happen.

Bitcoin Split Risk

Given the potential risk of a split in the Bitcoin network, some people are not enthusiastic about the BIP 148 proposal.

First, BIP 148 is more controversial than a "traditional" UASF. If users want to push for a protocol change, there are many safer ways to do it. Bitcoin developers who have always emphasized and promoted user security have also had mixed reviews on this proposal.

“I personally do not support this proposal,” said Bitcoin Core contributor Jonas Schnelli, adding that the change will likely not be incorporated into the Bitcoin Core codebase.

Schnelli pointed to a different proposal, saying:

“BIP149 seems to be a more sensible UASF.”

BIP 149 is also a UASF, but unlike BIP 148, miners don’t need to do much to upgrade to SegWit. Instead of signaling support for SegWit, miners only need to avoid using blocks that the network deems invalid.

BIP 149 will begin after the current SegWit deployment expires in November this year. Some developers believe that it is safer to wait until the existing SegWit expires before creating a new deployment, otherwise it may be incompatible with old nodes. BIP 149 is tentatively scheduled for July 4, 2018, but the schedule is still under discussion.

In addition, BIP 148 currently has some other problems.

Developer Greg Slepak said the “whole idea is stupid because of the lack of replay protection,” citing an issue that arose last year when an ethereum software upgrade caused the bitcoin network to split in two, resulting in two coins that could be spent on both chains.

Others believe that while UASF may be necessary at some point, the time may not be right for it.

Chris Pacia, lead backend developer at OpenBazaar, said he would only support a UASF that had near-unanimous support from miners.

He said:

“But from what I understand about the community, there is no consensus on SegWit and UASF poses a real risk of a blockchain split.”

Pacia said the best option is SegWit2x, a recent proposal led by the Digital Currency Group (DCG) that has the support of most large bitcoin companies and 80% of miners.

The risk of procrastination

For some, like Pace, there is also the risk of waiting too long to activate SegWit.

He said:

“A lot of people are saying, ‘We should adopt BIP 149 instead of 148,’ and that’s really wrong. Why wait for 149 which may never be implemented when we can easily switch to Litecoin where their community is willing to support something they believe in and get more functionality.

Litecoin, a relatively unknown cryptocurrency, has attracted a lot of attention recently for activating SegWit. The decision to activate SegWit was reached after a closed-door meeting between Litecoin network miners and developers.

Pace also said he believes BIP 148 will find a lot of support.

“I feel like a lot of people are underestimating BIP 148, just like they underestimated Ethereum Classic, and they’re going to be caught off guard.”

Many people, including the original Ethereum blockchain developers, predicted that the original Ethereum chain would die as the community transitioned to a new blockchain. However, this did not happen, and today ETH and ETC are two competing tokens.

Currently, 33 Bitcoin companies have signaled their support for BIP 148.

But what really matters in terms of driving miner support is whether there is an “economic majority” behind it. In other words, large exchanges and wallets are key, but many large players, such as Coinbase, Blockchain, and Kraken, have yet to pledge their allegiance to the effort.

Drivers

However, there are further complicating factors.

Some claim that UASF, if done well, can have more than just a psychological impact.

Shaolinfry, the anonymous developer who rekindled the idea of ​​UASF, believes that the only expectation of UASF is to push Litecoin mining pools to support the activation of SegWit. Similarly, some people believe that UASF is also intended to push these Bitcoin mining pools to support SegWit2x.

Moreover, there are some who believe that BIP 148 is now coming and the safest option for users is to accept it.

For example, Bitcoin Core contributor Nicolas Dorier believes that those not running BIP 148 software would be at higher risk in the event of a network split due to the potential for a reorganization.

Dorier wrote:

“Personally, I think BIP 148 will work. I would have preferred to keep it as is, but I think the safest way for my service is to upgrade to BIP 148.”

However, it’s unclear whether other bitcoin service providers will make the same decision. If they don’t, Coinkite CEO and co-founder Novak Rodolfo said BIP 148 isn’t the only option for those who are gathering to change the network’s rules.

He told CoinDesk:

“Support for BIPs is indeed growing; BIP 148 does have a good chance of success on August 1st. If it fails, we still have BIP 149.”