Bitcoin investor predicts that Bitcoin price will surge to over $27,000 in the next four months

(Original title: Bitcoin investors predict: In four months, the price of Bitcoin will reach $27,395)

Trace Mayer tweeted that he believes Bitcoin is currently undervalued, and that he sees a price target of $27,395 per Bitcoin in February of next year (just 4 months from now). He based this prediction on the steady rise of Bitcoin's 200-day moving average. Mayer is extrapolating the rise of the 200-day moving average, assuming that it will reach $27,395 by February of next year. If this is the case, he asserts that a price of 4.75 times the moving average per par value, or $27,395, would be a "normal" price.

who is he?

Follow Mayer, JD His website states that he was "the first blogger to publicly recommend blockchain technology." At the time, Mayer advised his followers to buy Bitcoin when each coin cost just $0.25.

Like most early adopters of Bitcoin, Mayer is extremely wealthy and recently challenged Roger Ver for 25,000 BTC. Only a few people in this world can make $1.21 million mln. In addition to being an early adopter and Bitcoin recommender, Mayer has provided seed funding for Kraken, BitPay, and Armory.

On his website, Mayer describes himself as:

Entrepreneur, investor, journalist, monetary scientist, and staunch defender of free speech. Trace Mayer holds degrees in accounting and law. He has studied Austrian economics with a focus on Murray Rothbard and Ludwig von Mises.

Mayer has long been concerned about privacy and regulation, worrying that IRS actions and AML/KYC laws could hinder growth and incentivize bad behavior.

Moving Average

Technical analysis is the art of determining future price movements of an asset based on its history. Although many people scoff at it as a pseudoscience, others argue that technical analysis has its roots in human psychology. Analysts clearly state that their work is based on probability, so it is possible to say that prices may rise or fall, but the unpredictability of the market makes it impossible to be certain.

According to Investopedia, a moving average is:

"A simple technical analysis tool that smooths price data by creating a continually updating average price..." Moving averages can help reduce "noise" on a price chart. Or act as support or resistance.

The 200-day moving average cited by Mayer is simply the average price of Bitcoin over the past 200 days. Every day, the oldest day’s data is removed, the most recent day’s closing price is added, and the measure is recalculated. Because the 200-day moving average is weighted with this old price data, in a bull market it lags far behind current prices. The purpose of the measure is to show the general trend of price movement.

In the case of Bitcoin, the 200-day moving average continues to rise, which suggests that we are still in a bull market (bullish bullish momentum). If the moving average were to decline, it would be a sign of weakness and a possible reversal. The current price should remain within a certain range of the moving average. If the price rises too high, then the gains may be unsustainable.

Mayer predicts that the 200-day moving average will continue to rise and Bitcoin will remain above reasonable levels. Only time will tell if Mayer is right or wrong, but history seems to be on his side. After all, I don't want to bet against a guy who has made at least $1.2 million on Bitcoin.