Ethereum fork and production reduction are imminent, will it rise against the trend or will miners shut down?

According to a previous report by Coindesk, Ethereum will activate a hard fork at block height 7080000. It is reported that after this fork, the transaction processing speed of Ethereum will be greatly improved. At the same time, some analysts said that the output of Ethereum will be reduced after the fork, which will help its price rise.
It is reported that this Ethereum upgrade is called the "Constantinople" upgrade, which is a fork in the Ethereum "Metropolis" stage. As early as the beginning of the release of Ethereum, the team announced that the release of the project would be divided into four stages: Frontier, Homestead, Metropolis and Serenity. The conversion between each stage will be carried out in the form of a hard fork. At present, Ethereum has reached the third stage Metropolis, and Metropolis consists of two parts, "Byzantium" and "Constantinople". The reason why it is named "Byzantium" and "Constantinople" is because the founder Vitalik is Russian. Russia has inherited the mantle of the Byzantine Empire in history, so the Ethereum team used this to name the two hard forks.
In July 2015, Ethereum launched the Frontier beta version, in March 2016 the Homestead release version, and on October 9, 2017, Metropolis was launched. Metropolis was upgraded in two phases: Byzantium and Constantinople. Among them, the Byzantium hard fork was completed at block 4370000 in October last year, deploying ZK-Snarks, postponing the difficulty bomb, adjusting the block reward from 5 Ethereum to 3 Ethereum (EIP-649), and a total of 8 updates were completed.
ZK-Snarks is the biggest and most important feature of Ethereum in the Metropolis stage. zk-Snarks stands for Zero-Knowledge Succinct Non-Interactive Argument of Knowledge, which is also a kind of "zero-knowledge proof". "Zero-knowledge proof" means that the prover can convince the verifier that a certain assertion is correct without providing any useful information to the verifier.
The combination of zk-Snarks and Ethereum can hide some content in transactions, including senders, recipients, amounts and data, to improve privacy. The so-called "difficulty bomb" is that in the mining algorithm, it is becoming increasingly difficult to reward miners on the blockchain using Ethereum.
The "Constantinople" hard fork is an upgrade of the previous hard fork. Its main feature is to smoothly handle all the problems caused by "Byzantine", further reduce the cost, introduce a hybrid chain mode of PoW and PoS, and complete the smooth transition from PoW to PoS. V God calls the Metropolis "Constantinople" stage and the final Serenity version Ethereum 2.0.
It is reported that the "Constantinople" hard fork includes five update plans, namely EIP-145, EIP-1052, EIP-1283, EIP-1014 and EIP-1234, which aim to improve the operating efficiency of Ethereum and remove or postpone the difficulty bomb. Among them, EIP-1234 proposes to reduce the block reward after the Byzantium hard fork from 3 Ethereum to 2 Ethereum. It is also the most watched and controversial update project of this upgrade.
At the same time, this is also the measure that is most likely to have an impact on the current price of Ethereum. With the current market price of Ethereum, the remaining Ethereum miners after the shutdown wave barely break even. If the output is directly reduced by 33% now, excluding the efficiency improvement brought by the "Constantinople" hard fork, Ethereum needs to rise by 50% to make up for the loss of miners' production reduction. If Ethereum cannot rise sharply after the production reduction, a large number of miners may choose to shut down again.