Why I don’t recommend investing in Grin and Beam

In fact, regarding the recent popular Grin and Beam, I believe that those who care about them have already learned about these two projects, and they must have known that their only common point is the MimbleWimble protocol, and they have a certain understanding of this "magic protocol" named after Voldemort in Harry Potter. Friends who don't care about them probably have no interest in learning about them, so I won't introduce these two projects here. I will briefly summarize them and get to the point. The MimbleWimble protocol focuses on anonymity and privacy. It has the same goal as Monero and BigZero, that is, they believe that Bitcoin is still too transparent. Although it is an anonymous transaction, after all, the address is publicly available, the transaction records are available, and the historical records are available. This degree of anonymity is far from enough. The MimbleWimble protocol can achieve: transaction records cannot be checked, transfers cannot be checked, that is, which address transferred how many coins to which other address at what time, these cannot be checked. The most attractive thing about these two projects is their clean origins: technical geeks, no ICOs and private placements, and no pre-mining. All of this makes people feel that even if this is not the next Bitcoin, it is at least the next Monero, right? In addition, there has been no hot spot in the bear market for a long time, so it is rare that a hot spot that can stimulate people's nerves will naturally cause people to chase it crazily. In the early morning of January 17, Grin will officially start trading on the exchange. At that time, there should be a big price fluctuation. Before starting, I hope everyone will calm down and read my analysis. However, although many people hope that I will be optimistic and lead everyone to buy and wait for a fortune, after all, the bear market has lasted too long. Those who lose money want to get their money back, those who are short want to buy coins, and those who make money have been idle for a long time. They are all eager to try and wait for the market, which can be said to be imminent.
But unfortunately, I am here to pour cold water on you. I do not recommend you to invest in Grin and Beam. I will explain it in several points, and the main data and reference object is Grin.
I. Monetary Policy
Grin’s monetary policy is the most unsustainable reason in my opinion. Grin is very special, it generates one block per minute, and the reward for one block is (60+x) Grin, and it never decays and has no upper limit.

That is to say, one coin per second, more than 80,000 Grin can be produced in a day, and more than 30 million Grin can be produced in the first year. Of course, the fixed issuance rate also means the decay of inflation rate:

That is to say, after many years, this additional issuance will be insignificant, and the inflation rate will be close to 0. But that will be many years later. Although no one has mentioned the saying that one day in the cryptocurrency world is like one year in the real world for a long time, it still exists, because the cycle of the cryptocurrency world is too fast, and discussing things one year later feels full of variables, let alone many years later. So let's talk about it, if the price of Grin can be maintained at twice the current price of Beam (assuming that there is a consensus price mentioned in the community), that is, 10-15 RMB, about 2 US dollars, it will enter the top 100 of the market value of coinmarketcap in half a year:

That is to say, it will exceed the market value of GX in half a year. (You wouldn’t know it if you didn’t read it, but it turns out that Elastos, THETA, GX, and other old friends in the bull market are all in such a bad situation. I don’t care about the price of the coins I don’t hold.)
So, as long as it can maintain the not-so-high price of $2, what will Grin’s market value be in a year? About 60th place.

That is to say, it will surpass Huobi’s HT, Loopring Protocol, Martian’s HC and other coins to this position. I won’t go into details, but to put it simply, as long as Grin can maintain a price of $2, before the Bitcoin halving (which is what most people think is the turning point of the bear market), Grin’s market value ranking will be in the top 50.
Those who expect Grin to double in value basically think that before the bear market ends, Grin's market value will appear in the top 20 or even top 10. Of course, this is not impossible. It's just unlikely. If this really becomes a reality, Grin's price will reach tens of dollars, and its market value will reach trillions of dollars in three years. What will the market value of Bitcoin be by then? So if I get slapped in the face, I feel pretty comfortable. After all, it's exciting to think about it.
2. Has it been popular abroad for a long time?
When many people first heard about this project, they noticed it, or they paid attention to it because of this, that is, "this project is very popular abroad and has been popular for a long time." Is it true? Maybe not. First of all, from Google Trends, because the word Grin means "smile", it is too popular, and it is meaningless to search for this word, so I collected the name of the mimblewimble protocol:

It can be seen that the popularity has skyrocketed during this period, and this trend is actually similar to the domestic trend:

So perhaps there is no such thing as these two projects and the mimblewimble protocol being "popular from abroad to China". If they are going to be popular, they will become popular together.
In addition, Grin’s official Twitter account doesn’t seem to be that popular:

All kinds of clues also made the deeply hurt leeks comment below: "Is it another export-to-domestic sales?" "It must be another project started by Chinese people" "It's all routine, trying to trick me into taking over?" "......." Of course, there is no sign that this is a "domestic project", but because the founder is completely anonymous and did not make a lot of money from this project (on the contrary, I think it's not decent that the beam team took 20 coins per block, although it has nothing to do with my interests), I am more inclined to think that Grin is not a domestic project. But it is indeed not a project that "explodes abroad and follows in China". However, it is really sad that domestic projects have such a bad reputation.
3. Arrangements for miners?
Many people believe that the fire of this bear market was ignited by miners, and they believe that this is a "self-rescue project" for graphics card miners. Compared with the media and exchanges that are generally "fast-moving", miners and mining pools that represent miners do have a more obvious enthusiasm this time, an enthusiasm that has not been seen for a long time. Bitcoin mining pool leader BTC.COM, Ethereum mining pool leader Spark Mining Pool, Fish Pool and other well-known mining pools all announced their support for Grin's mining at the first time. This grand occasion can be said to have not been seen for a long time. When was the last time such a grand occasion was seen when the currency was launched? And the evidence of this statement is the well-known upcoming key upgrade of Ethereum, Constantinople. The most critical upgrade in this fork is to reduce miners' income by 1/3. Everyone with a discerning eye knows that mining machines are not doing well after the arrival of Ethereum's Constantinople. A new gold mine is needed to satisfy their shovels. Otherwise, a reduction of 1/3 in income is not something that all miners/mining farms can bear. (Currently, due to vulnerabilities, the upgrade may be postponed)

The fact that the two projects happened at the same time (Ethereum upgrade and Grin launch), the long-lost enthusiasm in the mining industry, and the lessons learned from Zcash and other coins, etc., all make people think, is this really a self-rescue action by miners? Of course, conspiracy theories are meaningless. If the Grin and Beam projects can take off, that is, if the price consensus can be maintained, then the large amount of graphics card computing power overflow caused by the Ethereum upgrade will be released, which is definitely a good thing for miners (mines, mining pools, mining machine manufacturers). In the absence of private placements, ICOs, pre-mining, team reservations, etc., which are completely from scratch mining projects, the status of miners is very high. After all, they can be regarded as "half of the project party". In fact, it is the same as Bitcoin. Although the "project party" has no way to sell and cash out, the mining cost needs to be borne by everyone, that is, the electricity bill needs to be paid by all coin holders. Like Bitcoin, miners are always short sellers, whether it is hedging or selling after mining to pay the electricity bill.
4. Large exchanges are more cautious about anonymous coins. Because exchanges are becoming more and more cautious about regulation, they are always more cautious about anonymous coins. (In fact, they are also equally cautious about coins suspected of being securities). Just as Coinbase has listed a large number of coins, it has also tried to avoid anonymous coins (except for its own son ZEC). Therefore, exchanges that are busy whitewashing and landing, and exchanges that are born compliant, including Gemini, Bakkt, and Coinbase, which has listed a large number of coins, and of course the most popular Binance, are all afraid of being accused because of one or two coins, so anonymous coins should be avoided as much as possible, especially for coins like Grin that are very anonymous. So anonymous coins are just like Wang Xin's anonymous social networking. In the traditional world, they are born disadvantageous.
Besides, the project owner doesn’t seem to be interested in paying the “listing fee”, right? (Laughs) That’s about it, let me just summarize it briefly. Is Grin a good project? It’s definitely a good project. It has excellent technology and a cool founding team. It has no marketing at all, but it has won a lot of attention. And it’s a project that was considered in 2016, but it was launched in the cold winter of 2019 instead of the big bull market in 2017. And it has such good resources but has no behavior of cutting leeks. All these can be described in four words:
Worthy of respect.
Therefore, it is necessary to buy some after the price stabilizes (please note that this is after the price stabilizes). If I don’t buy any, I will probably be worried that it will suddenly soar in the next few years, and I can only smile bitterly and say that I missed it. Just like many people missed Ethereum. If it returns to zero, forget it. People always have to pay for FOMO costs. As the saying goes, buy peace of mind. But as analyzed above, it may be difficult to expect Grin to become a new miracle.
Finally, because of the poisonous milk and so on... so friends who have such thoughts, please be calm: