TAMC Research Institute丨Mining Market Revenue Report in February 2019

Mining market revenue report for February 2019 tell

Key points of this report:

• Coin price: The overall market rose by 15.71%, and the average increase of the top ten mining coins was 16%.

• The total network computing power: The average change of the top ten currencies' computing power is +10%, and the computing power rebounds

• Mining machine cost: The prices of the three major mining machine manufacturers remain stable, and the prices of graphics cards remain basically stable

• Mining Revenue Analysis

• Summarize

Details of this report:

1. Introduction

This report provides mining revenues for mainstream mining currencies. Factors that affect the payback period for miners mainly include currency prices, network computing power, and mining machine prices. A shorter payback period indicates that the profitability of the mining market has increased, and the possibility of potential large capital entering the mining market will also increase; when mining revenues cannot cover their costs for a long time, a large number of miners will choose to shut down their mining machines, which may lead to "mining accidents".

2. Coin price: The overall market rose by 15.71% , and the average increase of the top ten mining coins was 16%.

In February ( February 1 , 2019 - February 28, 2018 ), the total market value of global blockchain digital assets showed a trend of rising and falling. The market fluctuated sideways on the eve of the Spring Festival and then broke upward, successively regaining the 120 billion US dollars and 130 billion US dollars, and once broke through 140 billion US dollars. The market trading volume increased, large, medium and small market value currencies rebounded across the board, and market sentiment rebounded. Then it was blocked and fell back at the previous high point of the rebound, and the 130 billion US dollars mark was barely maintained at the end of the day. The closing price of the market in February was 131.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 17.8 billion US dollars from the opening price of 113.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 15.71% .

Figure 1 Market trends in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap , TokenMania

Figure 2: Rise and fall of mainstream mining currencies in February

Source: CoinMarketCap , TokenMania

Compared with the price decline of 90% of mining coins in January, the top ten mainstream mining coins rose in February, with an average price increase of 16% ; among them, LTC price stood out, with an increase of 50% . Among the top ten mining coins , LTC , ETH , DASH , and BCH outperformed the market, while BSV and DCR ranked last, with increases of 5% and 6% respectively . Generally speaking, the rise in coin prices will shorten the payback period of mining machines.

3. Total network computing power: The average change of the top ten currencies’ computing power is +10% , and the computing power rebounds

In theory, the proportion of computing power controlled by miners in the entire network determines the success rate of their mining. The higher the proportion, the greater the possibility of miners receiving rewards. At the same time, the increase in the computing power of the entire network will lead to a relative increase in the difficulty of mining for miners.

Table 1: Computing power of mainstream mining currencies in the past three months

Source: Block Explorer, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the computing power of mainstream mining currencies in February

Source: Block Explorer, TokenMania

In February 2019 , the total computing power of the top ten mining currencies continued the upward trend in January. Among them, XMR 's computing power rebounded the most, with an increase of 51% , and a sharp increase for two consecutive months; DCR followed closely, with a computing power increase of 28% . Among the top ten currencies, only two currencies' computing power is still declining; ETH's total computing power is still at a low level due to the Constantinople upgrade, but it has rebounded compared with January. The average change in the total computing power of the top ten mining currencies in February was +10% , a decrease of 3 percentage points from the previous month.

Figure 4 : Changes in the growth rate of computing power of mainstream mining currencies in the past six months

Source: Block Explorer, TokenMania

[Note]: 1M=10^6Hash/s, 1G=10^9Hash/s, 1T=10^12Hash/s, 1P=10^15Hash/s, 1E=10^18Hash/s

4. Mining machine cost

Due to the different encryption algorithms of various currencies, the current types of mining machines are mainly divided into ASIC mining machines and graphics card mining machines. Due to the specificity of the former, the price of its mining machines is more obviously affected by the currency price. Among the top ten mainstream mining currencies, only ETH , ETC and XMR use graphics card mining machines, and the rest of the currencies have been completely occupied by ASIC mining machines.

Table 2 Mainstream mining currency encryption algorithms

Source: TokenMania

4.1. ASIC Mining Machines: Prices of the three major mining machine manufacturers remain stable

In February 2019 , the prices of ASIC mining machines from the three major mining machine manufacturers remained basically stable, and the phenomenon of large-scale discount sales no longer appeared. The prices of mining machines from the three major mining machine manufacturers, Bitmain, Canaan Creative, and Ebang International, remained basically the same as in January. In addition, Canaan Creative officially launched an A911 Avalon mining machine on January 24 , with a rated computing power of 19.5T and a price of 1,790 yuan. At the same time, the price of Ebang International's Yibit mining machine has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, making it a mining machine manufacturer with relatively strong prices in the bear market.

Table 3 Price changes of mainstream ASIC mining machines

Source: Bitmain , Avalonminer , Ebit , TokenMania

4.2. Graphics card price: basically the same as the previous period

Due to different encryption algorithms, ETH and other cryptocurrencies currently use GPU mining machines, whose core components are customized mining motherboards equipped with 6 to 12 graphics cards. The current mainstream graphics cards are AMD 's RX series and NVIDIA 's GTX series graphics cards. Due to the large number of sales channels for graphics cards, prices in different regions will vary. The following is for reference only.

Figure 5 Price changes of various graphics cards in February

Source: Tmall, JD.com, Amazon, TokenMania

Figure 6 Graphics card price changes in the past six months

Source: Tmall, JD.com, Amazon, TokenMania

As the secondary market cools down, the motivation for incremental miners to enter the market has declined, and the impact of miners on the demand side of graphics card prices has weakened. The decline in graphics card prices has also slowed down significantly in recent months. Among the eight graphics cards this month, more than half of the graphics card prices have not changed compared to January, and only three graphics cards have fallen in price, namely RX580 ( -7% ), GTX1060 ( -1% ) and GTX1080Ti ( -3% ). The average price change of the eight graphics cards is -1.3% .

5. Mining revenue analysis

5.1. Unit computing power income: The average daily income of the top ten currencies fell by 1%

Unit computing power income refers to the daily mining income calculated based on the proportion of unit computing power of different currencies in the entire network and the fluctuation of currency prices, excluding the impact of mining machine costs. Taking Bitcoin as an example, the unit computing power income refers to the RMB income that can be obtained from 1THash/s computing power in a single day. In theory, the computing power controlled by miners is proportional to the daily income.

Table 4 Daily revenue per unit of computing power of mainstream mining currencies (unit: yuan)

Source: TokenMania

[Note] There are differences in the minimum unit computing power between different currencies: BTC is 1THash/s , ETH is 1MHash/s , BCH is 1THash/s , BSV is 1THash/s , LTC is 1MHash/s , XMR is 1KSol/s , Dash is 1GHash/s , ETC is 1MHash/s , ZEC is 1KHash/s , and DCR is 1THash/s .

Figure 7 Changes in unit computing power income of mainstream mining currencies this month

Source: TokenMania

Affected by the rebound in computing power, the unit computing power income of six of the top ten mainstream mining currencies fell this month, and the average daily income of the top ten currencies fell by 1% . Among them , LTC 's unit computing power income increased by 22% compared with last month due to a sharp increase in prices this month , the highest increase among all currencies; the top three currencies with the largest decrease in income among the top ten mainstream mining currencies are XMR ( -28% ), DCR ( -18% ), and ETH ( -8% ).

Figure 8: Changes in the unit computing power income of mainstream mining currencies in the past six months

Source: TokenMania

5.2. Mining machine payback period: Overall slightly shortened, BTC , BCH and DASH payback period extended

As of the statistical date of the report, March 13, 2019 , based on the full network data of each currency, assuming that the electricity fee is uniformly 0.45 yuan, the static payback period of mining for each currency is calculated.

Table 5 Payback period of mainstream currency mining machines

Source: Public data, TokenMania

Figure 9 Comparison of the return on investment of mainstream currency mining machines in the past three months

Source: TokenMania

Affected by factors such as computing power and coin prices, the payback period of major currency mining machines this month has been shortened to varying degrees, except for BTC , BCH and DASH , which have been extended compared with last month. In a horizontal comparison of the payback period, among the mining machines of the top ten mining currencies this month, the payback period of LTC mining machines this month is the shortest, which is 291 days, followed by ZEC mining machines and DCR mining machines, which are 337 days and 379 days respectively . The payback periods of other mining machines are generally longer.

As for ASIC mining machines, Bitmain's S9 series mining machines, which were once "money printing machines" in the bull market, have now been declared dead. The payback period of the new mining machine S15 varies greatly for different currencies. The payback period of BTC is basically the same as in January. For the forked currencies BCH and BSV, the payback period of S15 for BCH has been significantly extended by 68.9% to 1037 days this month, and the payback period for BSV has been significantly shortened by 41.8% to 601 days compared with last month . The payback period of LTC mining machine L3++ , ZEC mining machine Z9 and DCR mining machine DR5 has been shortened. The payback period this month has been shortened by 8 days, 37 days and 135 days respectively compared with last month, with a reduction ratio of 2.7% , 9.9% and 26.3% respectively . In addition, the payback period of DASH mining machine D5 this month has been significantly extended by 3.39 times to 817 days compared with last month.

In terms of graphics card mining machines, the payback period for mining ETH and ETC with 6 RX570-4G mining machines has been reduced by 3.8% and 20.8% from last month to 1249 days and 1214 days respectively. The payback period is still long, and the short-term risks of graphics card mining are relatively large, and the situation is not optimistic.

[Note] The above payback period is a static theoretical payback period. There is a certain deviation between this payback period and the actual payback period. It does not take into account the changes in mining costs and electricity prices and is for reference only.

6. Summary

In February ( February 1 , 2019 - February 28, 2018 ), the total market value of global blockchain digital assets showed a trend of rising and falling. The market fluctuated sideways on the eve of the Spring Festival and then broke upward, successively regaining the 120 billion US dollars and 130 billion US dollars, and once broke through 140 billion US dollars. The market trading volume increased, large, medium and small market value currencies rebounded across the board, and market sentiment rebounded. Then it was blocked and fell back at the previous high point of the rebound, and the 130 billion US dollars mark was barely maintained at the end of the day. The closing price of the market in February was 131.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 17.8 billion US dollars from the opening price of 113.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 15.71% . Compared with the price decline of 90% of mining currencies in January , the top ten mainstream mining currencies rose in February, with an average price increase of 16% ; among them , LTC price stood out, with an increase of 50% . Among the top ten mining currencies, LTC , ETH , DASH , and BCH outperformed the market, while BSV and DCR ranked at the bottom, with increases of 5% and 6% respectively .

In February 2019 , the total computing power of the top ten mining currencies continued the upward trend in January. Among them, XMR 's computing power rebounded the most, with an increase of 51% , and a sharp increase for two consecutive months; DCR followed closely, with a computing power increase of 28% . Among the top ten currencies, only two currencies' computing power is still declining; ETH's total computing power is still at a low level due to the Constantinople upgrade, but it has rebounded from the previous month. The average change in the total computing power of the top ten mining currencies in February was +10% , and the increase was 3 percentage points lower than the previous month.

In February 2019 , the prices of ASIC mining machines from the three major mining machine manufacturers remained basically stable, and the phenomenon of large-scale discount sales no longer appeared . The prices of mining machines from the three major mining machine manufacturers, Bitmain, Canaan Creative, and Ebang International, remained basically unchanged from January. In addition, Canaan Creative officially released an A911 Avalon mining machine on January 24 , with a rated computing power of 19.5T and a price of 1,790 yuan. The price of Ebang International's Yibit mining machine has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, making it a mining machine manufacturer with relatively strong mining machine prices in the bear market. As the secondary market cools, the motivation for incremental miners to enter the market has declined, and the price of graphics cards has tended to weaken on the demand side due to the influence of the miners. The decline in graphics card prices has also slowed down significantly in recent months. Among the eight graphics cards this month, the prices of more than half of them have not changed compared with January, and only three graphics cards have dropped in price, namely RX580 ( -7% ), GTX1060 ( -1% ) and GTX1080Ti ( -3% ). The average price change of the eight graphics cards is -1.3% .

Affected by the rebound in computing power, the unit computing power income of six of the top ten mainstream mining currencies fell this month, and the average daily income of the top ten currencies fell by 1% . Among them , LTC 's unit computing power income increased by 22% compared with last month due to a sharp increase in prices this month , the highest increase among all currencies; the top three currencies with the largest decrease in income among the top ten mainstream mining currencies are XMR ( -28% ), DCR ( -18% ), and ETH ( -8% ).

Overall, affected by factors such as computing power and coin prices, the payback period of major currency mining machines this month has been shortened to varying degrees, except for BTC , BCH and DASH . Comparing the payback period horizontally, among the top ten mining currencies this month, the payback period of LTC mining machines is the shortest, which is 291 days, followed by ZEC mining machines and DCR mining machines, which are 337 days and 379 days respectively. The payback periods of other mining machines are generally longer.

In terms of ASIC mining machines, the payback period of Bitmain's new mining machine S15 varies greatly for different currencies. The payback period of BTC is basically the same as in January. In terms of forked currencies BCH and BSV , the payback period of S15 for BCH has been significantly extended by 68.9% to 1037 days this month, and the payback period for BSV has been significantly shortened by 41.8% to 601 days compared with last month . The payback period of LTC mining machine L3++ , ZEC mining machine Z9 and DCR mining machine DR5 has been shortened. The payback period this month has been shortened by 8 days, 37 days and 135 days respectively compared with last month, with a reduction ratio of 2.7% , 9.9% and 26.3% respectively . In addition, the payback period of DASH mining machine D5 this month has been significantly extended by 3.39 times to 817 days compared with last month. In terms of graphics card mining machines, the payback period for mining ETH and ETC with 6 RX570-4G mining machines has been reduced by 3.8% and 20.8% from the previous month to 1249 days and 1214 days respectively . Graphics card mining has relatively high short-term risks and a long payback period, and the situation is not optimistic.

It is worth mentioning that in the early morning of March 1 , the Ethereum Constantinople and St. Petersburg upgrades were successfully completed, the network was operating normally, no abnormalities occurred, and the Ethereum blockchain had been completely transferred to the new fork; the current market sentiment is stable, and there has been no directional investment choice due to the upgrade event. Affected by the Constantinople upgrade, the total computing power of Ethereum was at a low level in February; after the Constantinople upgrade, the difficulty of Ethereum mining decreased, the block time decreased, and the block reward was reduced from 3ETH to 2ETH. This upgrade also prepared for Ethereum to switch from PoW to PoS.

Author : Yao Huawei, TAMC Research Institute