After Bitcoin rose to $8,000, the bigwigs who retired from the circle were furious

Several memories were revived.

Dazzlingly intertwined,

Soon it became a first-class one.

Keigo Higashino: White Night Walk

| Is a new round of bull market about to start? |

| Some people with bad intentions have already started to make moves|

As the temperature gradually rises, the crypto market seems to be waking up from hibernation. After a year-long downward trend, Bitcoin has finally ushered in a strong counterattack recently.

As of May 15, Bitcoin has been rising for 14 consecutive days. The current price of Bitcoin is $8,011, having previously climbed to $8,198.

Although the growth has slowed down compared with the previous few days, Bitcoin's year-to-date increase is still as high as 112.1%, which has doubled.

Many media have to admit that Bitcoin has become the best performing asset of the year.

Driven by the positive impact of rising Bitcoin prices, the entire crypto market has shown signs of recovery, with many mainstream currencies seeing double-digit increases in the past seven days.

According to CoinMarketcap data, the cryptocurrency market trading volume on May 1 was only US$45.029 billion, and the current trading volume has reached US$104.636 billion.

Investors have also been flocking into the crypto market.

According to the Alternative.me sentiment survey, as of May 15, the trading sentiment in the crypto market was "extremely greedy", while the market sentiment last week was only "greedy" and the sentiment remained "neutral" last month.

1

Looking back at the previous rounds of bull-bear transitions in Bitcoin, we will find that each bull market was initiated by major positive factors.

From April to June 2011, with the launch of the UK's first Bitcoin-to-pound exchange trading platform, Bitcoin increased more than 40 times in just two months.

Reports on Bitcoin by mainstream media such as Time Magazine and Forbes have also brought Bitcoin into the public eye.

However, this round of gains was instantly wiped out due to speculators' selling and the hacker attack on Mt.Gox, the largest cryptocurrency exchange at the time.

Subsequently, Bitcoin became the "legal currency" circulating in the dark web world.

In order to evade regulation, all "goods" on the black market "Amazon" Silk Road that are expressly prohibited by laws of various countries are settled in Bitcoin.

The re-launch of Silk Road 2.0 has also become a major positive factor for the second round of bull market.

Bitcoin experienced a strong rise of more than 86 times in 2013, even climbing to over $1,000.

This outbreak benefited not only from the trust crisis of traditional financial institutions caused by the Cyprus debt crisis, but also from the friendly policies of European countries towards Bitcoin.

The world's largest open source blogging program WordPress and the well-known social news website Reddit have begun to accept Bitcoin payments, which has further spread the popularity of Bitcoin.

However, the “Notice on Preventing Bitcoin Risks” issued by the People’s Bank of China and five ministries also caused Bitcoin to fall by nearly 85%, and the market remained sluggish in the following year.

With the impact of events such as Brexit, Bitcoin became a safe-haven asset comparable to gold in 2015.

Bitcoin also soared from three digits to five digits in 2017, reaching a high of $19,896.8, an increase of more than 25 times. Compared with the initial $0.07, it has increased by more than 280,000 times.

The explosion of Ethereum ICO projects has become a major positive factor in this round of price increases.

Many project parties can easily obtain tens of millions of dollars in financing by relying on the so-called "big boss's support" and a white paper.

However, these funds cannot create new value, and the useless "air coins" also drag down the performance of Bitcoin. The stricter supervision of various governments has also seriously affected investors' value judgment and confidence.

2

This round of surge is closely related to the current turbulent global political situation.

On May 1, US President Trump suddenly attacked China and imposed a 25% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. China and the United States, which had been in a truce, were plunged into a new round of trade conflict.

As the RMB broke through the 6.9 mark against the US dollar, the market's risk aversion sentiment has become increasingly strong, and Bitcoin has become a safe-haven asset that surpasses gold.

In addition, since the beginning of this year, Wall Street financial institutions and technology companies have been deploying in the cryptocurrency market, which has also injected a shot in the arm for the crypto market.

Earlier this year, Virginia Fairfax's pension management agency in the United States invested a total of US$10 million from two pension plans it managed into a cryptocurrency fund.

It is understood that the underlying assets of this fund will include cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin.

JPMorgan Chase and Facebook have successively announced that they will issue stablecoins to solve problems such as cross-border payments, which is enough to prove the influence of blockchain technology on traditional institutions.

Just last week, Bloomberg reported that Fidelity Digital Assets, a subsidiary of Fidelity Investments, the world's largest asset management company, announced that it would launch a Bitcoin trading service that will be aimed at institutional investors.

In fact, a questionnaire survey conducted by Fidelity Investments on 441 institutional investors at the end of last year showed that 72% of the institutions surveyed tended to purchase investment products that hold crypto assets, and 57% of the institutions surveyed tended to purchase crypto assets directly.

The entry of professional asset management companies and institutional investors will inevitably further expand the scale of the cryptocurrency market.

It is worth noting that every halving of Bitcoin production in history has caused the price of the currency to rise.

It is understood that the Bitcoin block will undergo the third halving in May 2020, when the number of bitcoins mined from each block will be reduced from 12.5 to 6.25. This may also be one of the important reasons for the rise in Bitcoin prices.

3

Many industry insiders remain cautious about this round of market conditions. After all, negative news has been reported on many exchanges including Bitfinex and Binance.

People familiar with the matter have analyzed that the negative news about Bitfinex and Binance is likely to be fabricated by someone in order to cooperate with short selling.

The exchange is most likely the mastermind behind the manipulation of prices and profits.

Liang Dong, director of the Zhongguancun Internet of Things Blockchain Laboratory, said in an interview that Bitcoin's sudden rise reflects "irrational expectations in the market."

Cryptocurrency analyst Joseph Young also said on Twitter that there is no large influx of funds into the cryptocurrency market, but rather a return of existing funds due to increased confidence or comfort.

In addition, the "big guys" who once chose to withdraw in the bear market also began to return to the cryptocurrency circle after the situation improved.

On May 14, Li Xiaolai sent an email to Yunbi.com users, inviting them to become the first batch of seed users of the one-stop investment research community b.watch.

This mass email was sent less than nine months after he announced on his official account that he would permanently withdraw from the cryptocurrency industry.

It is understood that to apply for entry into the community, one needs to hold at least RMB 500,000 to 1 million in cryptocurrency, and proof of holding is also required.

Li Xiaolai said that b.watch solved the "information asymmetry" problem he once faced, by aggregating information through the community and providing investors with correct information. He will completely "screen" the members of the community.

However, investors do not seem to buy it. Previous plummeting projects such as Candy and PRS have seriously eroded investors' trust in Li Xiaolai.

Many investors questioned the purpose of returning to the industry when the virtual currency market was rising under his Weibo, and said that they were "really scared" of the projects related to it.

In addition to Li Xiaolai, early Bitcoin player "Bao Erye" and founder of Bitcoin China Yang Linke and others initiated the establishment of a Bitcoin consensus community called "One Person, One Coin".

Bao Erye also called for every family to own a Bitcoin.

Human nature is always greedy. In the face of interests and traffic, the so-called "quit the circle" promise is not worth mentioning at all.

However, I believe that after experiencing the bear market, investors will maintain a cautious and rational attitude towards these so-called "cryptocurrency giants".