Is the bull market really coming? We asked 10 industry insiders for you

Is the bull market really coming?

It broke through $8,000, fell below $6,200, and returned to $8,000.

In just one week, Bitcoin was on the hot search list on Weibo twice, experiencing ups and downs from "surge" to "collapse".

As Bitcoin fluctuates, discussions about whether the bull market is coming are also extremely heated.

Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, tweeted that the BTC bear market is finally over and the cryptocurrency winter is over.

Mati Greenspan, senior market analyst at eToro, said that Bitcoin is currently in a bull cycle and is expected to maintain strong momentum in the medium and long term.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin remains around $8,000, with a market value of more than $140 billion, the highest point in the past 11 months.

Regarding whether the cryptocurrency bull market has arrived and what the subsequent trends will be, DeepChain Finance interviewed 10 big names in the industry. Let’s hear what they say.

Hong Shuning, former president of Jinqiu Blockchain Research Institute and well-known blockchain expert:

It is undoubtedly the early days of the bull market

There is no doubt that we are in the early stages of a bull market.

Judging from the price trend, it rises quickly and does not fall. Each round of rise sets a new high and the decline is limited, which shows that the rise is driven by new funds. Half a year has passed since the bottom of the Bitcoin price, and the resistance level of $6,500 has been easily broken. These are all signs of a bull market.

From the perspective of asset allocation, pessimistic expectations for the global economic situation have led many wealthy people to choose Bitcoin for asset allocation.

Bitcoin ETF will be approved in the future, there is no reason why it cannot be approved, but the SEC is now clearly inclined to do nothing and deliberately delay, and it is still unknown whether it can be approved within the year. Once approved, Wall Street funds will inevitably enter the market in large quantities, quickly pulling the price of Bitcoin to a reasonable level.

The current price of Bitcoin is undervalued, which is also the fundamental reason for the sharp fluctuations in the currency price, because its size is too small.

I think the reasonable price of Bitcoin is above $100,000, which is based on the international gold reserves. Bitcoin will replace gold and become the new international reserve currency.

BiXin CMO Xiong Yue:

It’s not a bull market yet. The next bull market will be even crazier.

What we can be sure of now is not that we have entered a bull market, but that the bear market is over.

In the next bull run, the market will be crazy and the price of Bitcoin may reach an exaggerated height, such as $100,000.

For investors, what they need to do now is to hoard as much currency as possible within their affordability, and the largest position can only be Bitcoin.

Zhu Yu, co-founder of Biyin Mining Pool:

It has been clearly reversed

One picture illustrates the problem. This is the logarithmic monthly line. Referring to the process of the last round of bull-bear conversion, it has clearly reversed.

Liu Changyong, founder of Zhimi University and PhD in Economics from Peking University:

The bear market is over, and the bull market will depend on the Bitcoin halving in May 2020

The recent rise has indeed made many people think that the bull market similar to that in 2017 has returned. I have reservations about this.

I think it is certain that the bear market for crypto assets ended around the Spring Festival. The bear market produced an excessive underestimation of value.

Currently, the market is in a stage of value return, and 2019 should generally be a process of volatile recovery.

It will take time for market sentiment to recover, and it will also take time for the society to increase its recognition and scale of crypto assets by an order of magnitude. Therefore, it is not appropriate to be overly optimistic about the return of the bull market in 2019. Excessive optimism is prone to huge investment risks brought about by chasing high prices and leverage.

Overall, the bear market is over and the price will continue to fluctuate upward in 2019, but the crazy bull market should not come so soon. We are more optimistic about the Bitcoin halving in May 2020.

Yi Lihua, founder of Xiongbing Capital:

The market is developing in a positive direction

I don’t know how to define a bull market, but at the moment, the market is moving in a good direction.

The main manifestations are that the consensus is more extensive, mainstream funds are gradually entering the market, there are more valuable investments in blockchain, and high-quality projects are beginning to stand out.

The big bull market in 2017 was a bubble bull market. This time it should be healthier and more stable. Not all projects will explode. It mainly depends on the growth of mainstream currencies and some truly powerful and consensus-recognized projects. Some uncompetitive projects will be eliminated even if the market grows.

For mainstream currencies, we cannot predict whether the speed of price increase will be considered as better performance, but I believe that there will be healthier growth, and the market and investors will be more mature.

Gu Shi, founder of EOS Force:

The entire market has become active, and the application value of blockchain has been truly valued

From the intuitive feeling of our development team, the entire market has become active.

In particular, the team acquired by Facebook developed a stable currency and hired professionals to handle compliance, which led traditional financial institutions to truly pay attention to blockchain.

At the same time, social giants such as Line and KakaoTalk are also making plans. Therefore, it is not a difference between bull and bear markets, but the application value of the entire blockchain is truly valued.

In the past six months, we have found that the level of practitioners has begun to undergo a qualitative change, and professional teams that are ALL in the blockchain industry have emerged.

The current development of public chains and decentralized applications is far from meeting market demand, and we need more.

Bitcoin investor Xu Wenjie:

You can no longer buy Bitcoin at $4,500

Because the market has been suppressed for too long, the current increase in Bitcoin only needs to return to the original range of 45,000-55,000 RMB, but we can no longer buy Bitcoin at 4,500 US dollars.

The bull market will most likely start next year and last for a whole year.

Due to the lag effect of the market, everyone will rush to buy Bitcoin one month after the halving, while miners will be reluctant to sell due to the decrease in income. Under the double pressure, it will definitely break through the high point of 120,000 yuan, and there is a high probability of reaching 500,000 yuan, and then it will enter a long bear market.

Song Shuangjie, founder of Tongzhengtong Research Institute and China's best macro analyst in 2016:

BTC's fourth price up cycle officially begins, Bitcoin price will reach $50,000

It is already a bull market, and as previously predicted, BTC’s fourth price up cycle may begin around May 2019. The entry of mainstream institutions and the approval of ETFs may become the core trend of BTC’s fourth price cycle.

From the supply perspective, BTC's third halving will begin around May 21, 2020, and the price upward cycle will begin about a year before each halving.

From this perspective, the BTC price upward cycle may start around May 2019.

From the perspective of price, the maximum drop of BTC in the third price cycle was 84%, which is the same as the maximum drop in the second price cycle, and the adjustment range is sufficient. According to the fluctuation law of asset prices, the maximum increase of BTC in the fourth price upward cycle will become smaller.

From the perspective of risk, after a year of continuous adjustments, the BTC price has fallen sufficiently, the risks have been gradually released, and the recovery in investors’ risk appetite has created favorable conditions for the BTC price to stabilize and rise.

Finally, from the perspective of funds, mainstream institutions are accelerating their entry into the market, and many positive signals are being released. With the continuous improvement of relevant infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of accelerating since 2018.

Considering that BTC still has a lot of room for growth in terms of market capitalization and investor base, I believe that BTC can still achieve a 10-fold increase in this cycle, with a target price of around $50,000.

HelloEOS founder Zi Cen:

The moving average that has been suppressed for a whole year has finally been broken

A month ago, in an interview with DeepChain Finance, I made it clear that the bear market was over.

From the technical indicators, we can see that the weekly indicators are in a bottom trend, and the price is above the 90-day moving average and the 60-day moving average. The most obvious thing is that this moving average, which has been suppressed for a whole year, has finally broken through.

Zhao Dong, founder of DGroup:

I don’t know either.