For cryptocurrency investors, 2018 was a disastrous year. After the crazy bull market in 2017, people were shouting "all in blockchain". Unfortunately, after hitting a record high in January 2018, the price of coins quickly fell to a low point, with many coins falling by more than 95%. In the past year, the media announced the death of Bitcoin more than 100 times. Fortunately, the Bitcoin market has started to pick up, and many people have missed the best time to get on board, and are wondering if there will be a correction. Let's put it this way, the short-term market is unpredictable, and those who make a definite judgment on how the market will go tomorrow or next week are all charlatans, but in the long run, the market trend has begun to become clear, especially the five major events in the second half of the year are crucial. Bakkt Launch Bakkt is one of the most discussed and promising projects in the cryptocurrency circle. Bakkt aims to be a comprehensive cryptocurrency platform where users can not only trade cryptocurrencies and assets, but also use them for real consumption. The platform was founded by Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), and built in partnership with Microsoft and Starbucks, with the participation of some important organizations and individuals. Starbucks' participation is significant because most payments in the United States are currently made through Starbucks' application, even more than Apple Pay. Customers can make Bitcoin payments through the Bakkt payment software installed by Starbucks in its stores. In addition, regulated trading on a transparent platform and the solutions it provides to traders have attracted the attention of many large institutional investors, which could bring about a sea change in the market. Unfortunately, the launch of the platform has been postponed twice because more time is needed to streamline the customer registration process and obtain approval from the US government. However, many authoritative experts in the industry say that this situation will not last long. Bitcoin ETF Approval Although Bakkt is ready to go public, it is still unclear when the first ETFs will be approved. An exchange-traded open-end index fund (ETF) is a so-called "index tracking tool" that tracks the official price of an asset without requiring the owner to hold real Bitcoin. When investors buy and sell an ETF, it is equivalent to buying and selling the index it tracks, and they can obtain returns that are basically consistent with the index. ETFs allow investors to easily trade Bitcoin without owning it . This provides a solution for many investors who do not want to encounter some security issues and unnecessary troubles when buying Bitcoin. The approval of the first ETF is expected to bring a flood of institutional investors with large amounts of money to invest. It is often compared to the first gold ETFs , which saw a surge in prices after they were launched. There have been dozens of ETF proposals, but all have been rejected by the SEC because they believe that the market is not yet adequately regulated and developed. According to the SEC, there is still insufficient evidence to prove the size and volume of the market, and the potential for manipulation and fraud is too great. The most likely candidate for success is the ETF application from VanEck, best known for its gold ETFs, but unfortunately, the decision on this application has been delayed several times. Many experts do not expect the bill to be approved in 2019 due to the lack of a practical solution to combat fraud. This would be a pity, as the approval of an ETF would be exactly the “stamp of approval” that many institutional investors are waiting for to invest in cryptocurrencies. Institutional Wave In addition to Bakkt and ETFs, there are many other projects that can facilitate the influx of institutional funds into the cryptocurrency market. This is one of the most important developments in terms of market confidence and price impact. Many companies are eager to invest in cryptocurrencies, but they are hesitant due to the lack of appropriate infrastructure and regulation. Various ETF-like products are already active. BinckBank offers a bitcoin ETN, and Zurich-based SIX Swiss Exchange has received approval to list cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) that allow investors to hold a basket of various cryptocurrencies. In the coming years, several of the largest companies in the global financial market are also expected to launch various crypto platforms. For example, Fidelity, one of the world's largest asset management companies, will offer its own services from the beginning of 2019, allowing large investors to invest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Nasdaq in the United States will also offer Bitcoin futures. Germany’s second-largest exchange , the Stuttgart Stock Exchange , and ErisX are also expected to start offering services this year to enable institutional investors to trade cryptocurrencies. Breakthrough in the project One positive aspect of the cryptocurrency crash last year was its ability to self-clean. Almost all predictions predict that 90-95% of projects will fail. So-called "dead" projects are marked as "dead" if they show at least one of the following characteristics: "abandoned, deceived, dead website, no nodes, wallet problems, no social updates, weak presence, or developers have left the project." According to data from the Deadcoins website, more than 1,000 cryptocurrency projects have "died." The bear market is a screening machine, and scams and junk projects are washed out, which is crucial for the industry. Projects that have withstood the test of "survival of the fittest" in the bear market have been working hard to develop the products they promised in the past year. Therefore, it is expected that there will be many technical breakthroughs in the coming year, which will certainly have a positive impact on the long-term market. Regulation and Compliance The rapid emergence of cryptocurrencies has left governments lagging far behind in terms of regulation. Fraud has and will continue to occur in a variety of ways, and there are still things that need to be prohibited and punished in everyday regular transactions. That is why some governments have banned such transactions. We urgently need good regulation to make the market more trustworthy, stable and enable it to realize the true potential of blockchain. The relevant departments are working hard to establish a set of regulatory frameworks as soon as possible. For example, there are high expectations for the release of guidelines by the G7 Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in June, and the U.S. government has several proposed frameworks ready for release. In China, we can see that due to the non-compliance of exchanges, many problems have arisen, such as the huge risks of over-the-counter transactions. Investors in my community often encounter situations where they receive black money from over-the-counter transactions on exchange platforms, which leads to bank cards being frozen. As long as exchanges are not compliant, these risks will always be with us. Summarize It can be seen that there are still many major positive factors that may be released in the cryptocurrency circle in the second half of this year. Looking around, I can clearly see positive emotions among many investors and experts, which makes me full of expectations for the future of the cryptocurrency circle. I also wish everyone can realize their wealth wishes in the cryptocurrency circle. At the same time, I also want to remind everyone to never ignore the existence of risks. Original source: Medium Compiled by: Xiaoyan Source: Blockwave |
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