Why Bitcoin's bear market is about to begin in the second half of the year

As we mentioned in our last BTC/USD analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) has broken out of the falling wedge. This has made a lot of people very excited, but if we look at the big picture, I assure you that if you are a bull, then it is probably too early to get excited right now. If you are a bear, then this could be a good opportunity for a short-term turnaround. If we look at the chart, we can see that BTC/USD has broken out of the falling wedge area and has encountered a pullback after hitting the horizontal resistance level. Now, this is not a very strong resistance and a breakout could occur in the coming days, but the price is still rebounding from a critical level breakout at $13,000, which is why it is unlikely to happen according to the probability analysis.
Now, the overall trend looks fine. But we still expect the price to fall in the short term, even though this is contrary to what many people on Twitter are predicting. In fact, if we look at the tweets of some of the so-called Kols: they are very eager to see the price rise to previous historical highs. In some cases, I think they are not rational enough to understand that there are many other underlying factors behind the price, and I think they have a serious lack of understanding of the market. If we look at the analysis chart of Willy Woo, who is a well-respected analyst and chartist, we can see that it is a good representation of the current trend of Bitcoin, but unfortunately, it is not a good explanation of the trend of Bitcoin.
If we look at the chart, we can see that it has some fundamental flaws, as it anticipates that the ongoing cycle is shorter than the previous one, while there are certainly other potential crises based on past experience. If we look at the past price action of stocks or financial assets, we can see that when the market is growing, it takes more time to go up and down, as it takes more time to enter and exit the market. Furthermore, Bitcoin (BTC) trading history tells us that there are some factors that affect BTC/USD that I think are more important than the price performance on the BTC/USD chart.
This is the EUR/USD exchange rate. It has been in a downtrend for many years. It is behaving like we would expect in the short and long term, the ECB wants a weaker Euro and Trump wants a stronger USD. Therefore, their policies are as expected and there is no reason to expect a trend reversal at this time, especially with the conflict heating up in the Middle East and the situation in China, both of which would benefit the USD and hurt Bitcoin (BTC). Many people do not take this into account and listen to CNBC telling them to buy Bitcoin (BTC) now, but past experience has taught us that whenever the mainstream media starts saying these things, it is best to flee the market (network)