A girl from Beijing invests in Bitcoin: After adding 200,000 yuan to her position, she is ready to borrow another 1 million yuan

Will Bitcoin reach $20,000 by the end of this year?

Wang Qingqing is sure she will.

She has been exposed to cryptocurrency for two years, but she is really ready to enter the market recently. At the price of $10,800, she took out 200,000 yuan to increase her Bitcoin holdings. At the same time, Wang Qingqing also prepared four bank cards, each of which can be loaned about 200,000 yuan. She hopes to borrow as much as possible so that she can buy more Bitcoin.

Wang Qingqing, who has been trading in cryptocurrencies for only half a year, believes that Bitcoin will have another big rally in the second half of this year, with the price reaching around US$20,000 by the end of the year.

Bitcoin fluctuates repeatedly at the $10,000 mark. Those who are bullish on it to $20,000 choose to build positions, while those who are bearish on it to $7,000 are still waiting. Different psychological expectations lead people to make different position building behaviors.

4 bank card loans to increase positions

A week ago, Wang Qingqing, who had learned about cryptocurrency trading in an exchange group for nearly half a month, took out all her savings from her years in Beijing - 200,000 yuan, and increased her holdings of Bitcoin at the price of 10,800 US dollars.

After adding positions, Wang Qingqing first sold the coins at a price of $11,400, and then bought them back at a price of $10,800.

What Wang Qingqing did not expect was that on July 16, before David Marcus, head of Facebook Libra, had finished his “war of words” in the U.S. Senate, Bitcoin once again entered waterfall mode, falling from $10,844 to a low of $9,217 in one breath, a drop of 15% in 10 hours.

Wang Qingqing originally planned to short Bitcoin again at 13,000 points, but missed the best opportunity. Fortunately, at 22:30 on July 18, Bitcoin was quickly pulled above $10,000.

Wang Qingqing said happily: "I knew it would definitely go up, but I missed the 9,000-point wave, which made me feel a little sad."

Wang Qingqing claimed that she was investing long-term and would only do short-term trading occasionally. In order to "heavily invest" in Bitcoin, she prepared four bank cards from China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China to apply for a loan.

Wang Qingqing has her own expectations for such a radical investment method. "I actually plan to play the long-term for about half a year, and pay it off in one lump sum by the middle of next year at the latest. There will be another big wave of Bitcoin prices in the second half of this year, and the price is expected to reach $20,000 by the end of the year."

Wang Qingqing estimated that each bank could only lend her 200,000 to 300,000 yuan at most, but she hoped the loan amount would be as large as possible.

As early as the beginning of 2017, Wang Qingqing had already entered the cryptocurrency circle. In the two and a half years of the cryptocurrency circle's bull and bear cycles, Wang Qingqing has always been "chaste" and never thought of becoming a leek.

It was not until early May this year that Wang Qingqing saw the market beginning to pick up and decided to study the market. She took out 20,000 yuan and bought Bitcoin when the price was US$5,800.

(When Wang Qingqing entered the cryptocurrency circle, the price of Bitcoin was $819)

“At that time, I had not studied the market, was completely confused about cryptocurrency trading, and had no investment logic of my own.” This was the only time Wang Qingqing built a position before Bitcoin broke through $10,000.

At 5:15 a.m. on June 23, Bitcoin rose from $11,434, and by 1:30 p.m. on the same day, its price quickly approached $12,907.96; as of 2:45 a.m. the next day, after four stages of increase, Bitcoin broke through a new high of $13,781.38, an increase of 137.6% compared to the beginning of May.

This stimulated Wang Qingqing.

In early July, she formally learned to trade with a trader and studied the dealer. Wang Qingqing believes that many amateur cryptocurrency traders do not understand the market and buy and sell based on their personal feelings.

"Bitcoin plummeted from $14,000 to $10,000 because many new money dealers came in and wanted to sweep the old coins into their own hands, so it will continue to fluctuate around $10,000. New money built positions at 10,000 points, and their ambition should be to pull it to $20,000." This is the logic behind Wang Qingqing's choice to build a position at $10,800.

Now, Wang Qingqing wakes up around 5 o'clock every day. Wang Qingqing told Shenlian Finance: "Because morning is a good time for market makers to smash or pull the market. The fluctuation is too big, my heart can't bear it, and I really can't sleep well."

"Since I went all in on Bitcoin, I feel energetic every day." Wang Qingqing was a little excited.

Bitcoin has fallen below $10,000 and can finally be bought back

The Bitcoin market is unpredictable. At the same point in time, different people have different expectations for Bitcoin. Those who are bullish are willing to take over, while those who miss out are forced to take over.

Wang Qingqing belongs to the former, while Ho Hung belongs to the latter.

Bitcoin began to fluctuate downward from $13,781, and Stanley Ho finally got the opportunity to increase his holdings and bought 5 more bitcoins at a price of $9,700.

He Hong told Shenlian Finance that the last time he invested in Bitcoin was on May 3 when Bitcoin was priced at US$5,800.

At that time, in the past 31 days, Bitcoin had risen by more than 40%. After breaking through $5,800, Bitcoin continued to rise, breaking through $6,900, $8,000, and $10,000, and was on the Weibo hot search list many times, until it reached $13,781.

At the beginning of almost every month, Ho Hung would buy a fixed amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Ho Hung made four fixed investments at the prices of BTC/3200 USD, ETH/90 USD; BTC/3800 USD, ETH/130 USD; BTC/4700 USD, ETH/160 USD; BTC/5800 USD, ETH/177 USD.

“In fact, I think the market trend came too early, and I still had some positions that I hadn’t added. After missing out on a few waves, I finally reacted.” He Hong said that he should have bought more Bitcoin when it was at $4,000. $5,000 and $5,800 were two points where he missed out.

Faced with the sudden bull market, Justin Sun once said on Twitter: "I have no clue."

Other industry insiders have different opinions: "IEOs of the three major exchanges have driven the market", "VDS has accelerated the upward trend of Bitcoin prices", "Asset management company Fidelity Investments has deployed cryptocurrency business, and Facebook has issued the stable currency Libra. These old money and giants are the most critical factors driving the market."

But in any case, Ho Hung could no longer buy Bitcoin at $4,000. He described his feelings at the time: "At that time, many people were influenced by the bear market theory and missed the opportunity like me. They rose after a wave and waited for a fall, but in the end, it only rose and never fell."

"I don't want to say more. It's all tears if I say too much." When Bitcoin surged to $12,480, the old investor Wang Yaobin collapsed.

On December 15, 2018, the price of Bitcoin dropped to its lowest point, $3,155. The number of TokenFunds dropped sharply, project owners almost lost their voices, mining machine manufacturers suffered losses, and the blockchain industry began to cut salaries and layoffs on a large scale, and the entire market was shrouded in pessimism.

Wang Yaobin has always felt that the bear market should not end so soon and Bitcoin should fall to $2,000.

On March 20, Bitcoin broke through $4,000. Wang Yaobin was caught off guard and began to gradually and passively increase his positions, cautiously increasing his positions when Bitcoin reached $6,000.

After Bitcoin broke through $6,000, Wang Yaobin regretted adding to his positions too slowly.

Wang Yaobin, who only added 20% of his positions, told Shenlian Finance: "I missed so many opportunities because I was too greedy and not skilled enough. I got the small cycle right but missed the big cycle."

He started hoarding coins in 2013 and kept hoarding them for five years. He broke the habit and started selling coins in 2018. Looking back, Wang Yaobin feels that he still has not outperformed Bitcoin.

“I later learned that at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the price of Bitcoin reached the price of the shutdown coin, which was actually the bottom. At that time, everyone thought that the bear market was not over yet, but in fact, they paid for their cognition.”

Although Bitcoin has fallen below $10,000 several times, Wang Yaobin still did not choose to increase his position. "If it does not fall below $8,000, I will not increase my position," Wang Yaobin said.

Hoard coins by time

"You're as fierce as a tiger when you operate, but you look back and find yourself an idiot" is a true portrayal of most cryptocurrency traders.

Wang Yang, the initiator of the "One Person, One Coin Consensus Community", has a method of hoarding coins: hoard by time, not by price.

“People who hoard coins based on price will never be able to hoard them all. For example, they can set a time and sell them directly after five years regardless of the price. This way they can hoard them and not miss out.” The reason why Wang Yang has such experience in hoarding coins is that he once sold more than 10,000 bitcoins at 1,400 yuan.

In 2011, Wang Yang, who was working on foreign games, saw that there was a demand for Bitcoin exchange and that the exchange was convenient. Some people also took advantage of this feature to hype it up. The potential value of Bitcoin made Wang Yang decide to mine.

(Wang Yang’s graphics card purchase order in 2011)

Three graphics cards are equipped with one machine. Wang Yang got a total of 120 graphics cards and mined more than 10,000 bitcoins at an average cost of less than 10 yuan.

In September 2013, when the price of Bitcoin began to rise sharply for the first time and reached 1,400 yuan, Wang Yang sold these Bitcoins for a total of nearly 14 million yuan. If these Bitcoins were sold at the highest point in December 2017 at $19,535.7, they would have sold for at least $195.357 million.

By November 30 of that year, Bitcoin had risen to $1,149, and Wang Yang was washed out. Wang Yang did not expect that the time he sold the coins was right at the "foot of the mountain" in the rising band of Bitcoin prices. After selling the coins, Wang Yang decided not to touch Bitcoin again.

(In 2013, Wang Yang sold nearly 15,000 bitcoins)

"I was very pleased with myself at the time. The cost of mining and buying was only a few yuan, and I sold it for about 1,400 yuan. Then Bitcoin dropped to 400 yuan, rose to more than 8,000 yuan, dropped back to more than 900 yuan, and rose to 130,000 yuan. After two cycles, I knew everything. I got back on board in 2016 and never moved again."

Talking about this experience, Wang Yang said with emotion: "There will always be obstacles that cannot be overcome, but we only have one life. To be honest, I don't even have the urge to sell Bitcoin now, because Bitcoin is the real private property."

Bitcoin has been around for 10 years. From personal graphics card mining to companies participating in mining with nano-level chips, from individuals buying Bitcoin to large institutions entering the market, Bitcoin has become a consensus among more and more people, and the factors affecting Bitcoin prices have become increasingly complex.

Previously, Fu Dekun, co-founder of Symbol Capital, told Shenlian Finance that this market is not a bull market, but the main force is preparing for the halving in 2020.

Because of the big bull market in 2017, the range between 8,000 and 13,000 USD was the most concentrated range for main players and institutions to flee. After the big bear market in 2018, the leeks and the unsteady ones cut their losses and left the market, but there are still more than 200 billion USD of asset allocation types and stubborn leeks holding on to this range. If this congestion is not cleared, the market will not be able to be boosted by the halving in March next year.

Fu Dekun believes that the consensus price of $5,600 is the natural support price of the market, and there is a high probability that Bitcoin will return to between $6,000 and $7,000 before the end of August.

But Wang Qingqing disagrees with this statement: "Bitcoin will never go back to $6,800. I dare to say this. Because many major players entered the market at 8,000 points, they will not let Bitcoin fall to $6,800."

Wang Qingqing analyzed that, in fact, it can be seen from the overall market that at around 8,000 points, the trading volume of Bitcoin is very high, and it is a buy order. There are many dealers in the currency circle at present, so I think the most important thing for currency speculation is to study human nature thoroughly and play against the dealers.

(In this article, Wang Qingqing, He Hong, and Wang Yaobin are all pseudonyms.)

[Deepchain Original] Text丨Wu Yan