Litecoin halving is imminent. Can it start an independent trend again?

There are less than 5 days left until the Litecoin halving. Can this concept, which has been hyped since the beginning of the year, really bring a different market situation to LTC?

Since the beginning of this year, LTC has soared from a bottom of $30.5 to a high of $143.5, an increase of more than 370%. As for the reason for the rise, some analysts believe that it is the impact of the halving, while others believe that in the case of a high correlation in the digital currency market, the reason for the rise of LTC is largely due to the driving effect of BTC.

It is undeniable that LTC did have a different trend in the first half of the year. From the beginning of the year to early April, Litecoin rose from a bottom of $30 to $90, an increase of about 200%. After half a year, could this be an early release of the benefits of halving?
Comparing with the last Litecoin market, perhaps we can get some clues from it.
As a test field for Bitcoin, Litecoin has only experienced one halving since its birth, which occurred on August 26, 2015. As can be seen from the chart, at the beginning of 2015, the price of Litecoin was still at $1.34, and then it soared to a high of $8.48 in July, an increase of about 532%. Since then, Litecoin has been falling, and the price returned to a low of $2.7 on the day of the halving, and has been fluctuating between $2.5 and $5 for the next six months.

From this perspective, this year’s Litecoin halving has a highly similar trend to the last time. It also reached a high point more than a month before the halving, and then continued to decline. If this trend continues, Litecoin will be in a volatile market for the next six months until the next bull market arrives.
History will have similarities, but it will not simply repeat itself. Many analysts have different views on the halving of Litecoin this year.
Coindesk analysis pointed out that the halving of Litecoin will reduce the current mining reward from 25LTC to 12.5LTC. The reduction in output will disrupt the current supply and demand in the market, and the inflation rate will also drop from the original 8.4% to 4%, which will stimulate users' desire to buy Litecoin and push the price of Litecoin to further increase.
Miles, an analyst at CoinNess, believes that since Litecoin has already experienced a wave of market this year, it is unlikely to experience another independent market after the halving. In addition, due to the strong correlation between Litecoin and Bitcoin, the rise and fall of Litecoin will be affected by Bitcoin. Litecoin is likely to follow Bitcoin in the future, and will not give rise to an independent market. (Coin World)
Seattle startup Strix Leviathan pointed out more directly that the Litecoin halving will not affect the market. It said, "We found that the return distribution of the asset during the halving period and outside the halving period showed that they were statistically the same at a 99% confidence level. No evidence was found that cryptocurrency assets outperformed the market after the halving."
In fact, for the price of Litecoin, its founder Charlie Lee is also not optimistic. He once said: "The price situation of LTC will not improve, especially in August."
At present, the hash value of Litecoin continues to rise and has reached 459.949T, an increase of 170% compared to 170.5T at the beginning of the year, and the difficulty of mining continues to rise.