After Ethereum celebrated its fourth birthday, where will it go in the next four years?

On July 30 , Ethereum celebrated its fourth birthday!

(Image source: Coindesk)

On July 30, 2015, the world's first general-purpose blockchain platform, Ethereum, was born. It is the first platform featuring a Turing-complete virtual machine and a native programming language, and developers can deploy algorithmic codes of any complexity on the Ethereum platform.

Mariano Conti, director of smart contracts at the MakerDAO Foundation, told CoinDesk:

Before Ethereum, developers had to design and write extremely complex software. Ethereum introduced a universal programmable layer that abstracts the entire programming process, allowing developers to build decentralized applications by writing the core logic of the application.

The latest data from investment firm Electric Capital shows that there are currently 800 monthly active developers on the Ethereum blockchain platform.

Avichal Garg, Founder of Electric Capital, said:

This means that the Ethereum ecosystem is larger than any other blockchain ecosystem.

Ethereum is no longer the only general-purpose blockchain platform, and it is not even the most active blockchain by some metrics. The latest quarterly report from Dapp.com shows that while Ethereum is still the first choice for developers, other decentralized application (Dapp) platforms such as Tron and EOS have surpassed Ethereum in the number of active Dapp users.

The continuous emergence of new platforms has made many players curious about what Ethereum will look like in four years. Faced with increasingly fierce competition, can Ethereum, as a general blockchain platform, still maintain its leading position?

Eric Conner, founder of information website ETHHub and product researcher at blockchain startup Gnosis, said:

I believe that Ethereum will overcome the difficult phases of its upgrade plan (transition to proof-of-stake and scaling), and by then, the Ethereum network will be able to onboard more users and its commercial use cases will increase significantly.

Proof of stake (a greener version of ethereum’s current consensus algorithm) and scalability are both being bundled into an ambitious upgrade dubbed ethereum 2.0, which many hope will take place in ethereum’s next four years.

Anthony Sassano, head of marketing and growth at Ethereum-based startup Set Protocol, said:

I believe that Ethereum will realize the vision of the ‘world computer’ that was originally proposed in the next four years, as the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade will be gradually completed. We will have mature solutions, and we will also have proper privacy solutions.

Is the future of Ethereum a platform or a currency?

Meanwhile, experts say Ethereum will have to address more than just its core problem of technical bottlenecks that limit transaction throughput and efficiency in the coming years. Ethereum must also overcome challenges related to its currency identity.

Yaz Khoury, lead developer at the Ethereum Classic Cooperative, which helps build the ETC protocol, said:

There is still a lot of controversy about whether Ethereum has currency attributes. Rather than being a cryptocurrency, it is more of a Dapp market and network.

Ryan Sean Adams, founder of Mythos Capital, a crypto investment company, believes that Ethereum will become a digital currency within four years:

It is clear that ETH will not be a utility token in four years, but a currency, a programmable value storage system. Lending, trading, and savings will all become public protocols in the Ethereum economy.

MakerDAO’s Conti believes that from a near-term development perspective, people should focus on the continued growth of decentralized financial applications rather than Ethereum 2.0 and its scalability challenges.

Conti said via email:

I believe that even if the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade is delayed, Ethereum's current capabilities will allow decentralized finance (DeFi) to develop well. I expect more companies to use DAI to pay their employees' stream wages. I also expect the first large-scale DeFi hack will happen soon, which will be something worth paying attention to.

What do Ethereum investors think on its fourth birthday?

Ethereum’s major investors say they are not concerned about how the platform will transform in the coming years, as the progress Ethereum has made in the past four years is enough to prove its ability to consolidate its leading position in the field of blockchain technology.

Linda Xie, founder of Scalar Capital, said:

Ethereum has made significant progress in making it easier for developers to build applications. The language, tools, and infrastructure in the Ethereum platform have all improved. While this is still a work in progress, it is much easier to build applications now than in the early days.

Mythos Capital’s Adams estimates that Ethereum has generated nearly $15 billion worth of token assets so far, and these assets will continue to snowball and create even greater value for the Ethereum platform in the coming years.

Adams said in an email:

We have also seen the first generation of decentralized finance protocols on Ethereum, with $500 million locked in lending and trading protocols in the last 18 months. These protocols will form the banking layer of this new open financial system.

Pantera Capital is the oldest Bitcoin investment firm in the United States, which has invested in more than 20 different Ethereum-based startups to date. Paul Veradittakit, a partner at Pantera Capital, said that 2019 was an inspiring year for Ethereum.

Veradittakit says:

The Ethereum community has maintained a constant focus on Ethereum during the bull market and has maintained great confidence in Ethereum during the bear market. This continuous construction of Ethereum has indeed paid off, and the Ethereum ecosystem has become healthier and richer. There are many great Ethereum projects that will be launched this year, let us wait and see.