A Grin mining machine costs 20,000 US dollars, earning thousands of dollars a day. The battle for Asic mining machines is about to begin.

Grin was most popular in early 2019. With no ICO, no pre-mining, and no investors, its “three-no” record made it a dazzling star for a while.

Since January 16, Grin’s price has experienced three peaks, namely US$14.7, US$13.3 and US$6.4, with the lowest price being US$1.9. The current price is US$3.2, with a market value of approximately US$54.3 million.

Grin uses the Cuckoo Cycle algorithm in the POW consensus mechanism for block generation. This algorithm is initially divided into two types: C29, which is ASIC-resistant, and C31, which is ASIC-friendly. According to the design, the C29 algorithm will generate 90% of the blocks in the early stage, and C31 will only generate 10% of the blocks. Every 8 days, the block generation rate of the former decreases by 1%, while the latter increases by 1%. After 2 years (January 2021), the block generation rate of the ASIC-friendly algorithm will rise to 100%.

▲Grin algorithm adjustment diagram (from TonkenInsight)

This design ensures that GPU mining is the main method in the early stage, thereby attracting more people's attention with a low threshold. In the later stage, it will switch to ASIC mining to pursue scale and strive for recognition from miners, mining machine manufacturers, exchanges and other parties.

Currently, Spark Pool and F2Pool are the main battlegrounds for Grin computing power, accounting for about 50% of the computing power of the entire network. According to Qiu Xiaodong, the head of the Chinese market of Spark Pool, Grin is currently the currency with the highest N card income (except for currencies that have skyrocketed and plummeted).

The project has a halo, is Asic-friendly, and has high returns. This is naturally what mining machine manufacturers want. Previously, Vidtoo, Innosilicon, and Obelisk all announced that they would launch Grin Asic mining machines, and the expected launch time is summer 2019.

Now, the news has come.

In early August, Zhejiang Microcomputer Technology’s official account published an article stating that (the legal representative of Microcomputer Technology is Kong Jianping, co-chairman of Canaan Creative) it will release the GrinAsic mining machine G1 series, which will be divided into two versions, MINI and PLUS, both supporting C31 and C32 (C31 iterative algorithm) two algorithm models.

▲Screenshot of Zhejiang Microcomputer Technology WeChat public account

According to public data, the computing power of G1MINI is 50Gps, and the computing power of G1PLUS is 500Gps. The prices vary depending on the delivery time (October-December 2019), with the former selling for a maximum of $1,950 (RMB 13,650) and the latter for a staggering $19,500 (RMB 136,500).

In April, Innosilicon also announced the preliminary parameters of the Grin mining machine. There are three models, namely G32-Mini, G32-500 and G32-1800, which are also compatible with C31 and C32 algorithms. The computing power of G32-Mini is 21.5Gps for C31 and 4.5Gps for C32, and the pre-order price is US$799. The computing power of C32-500 is 100Gps for C31 and 20Gps for C32, and the pre-order price is US$2,888. The computing power of G32-1800 is 328Gps for C31 and 65.6Gps for C32, and the pre-order price is US$9,388 (RMB 65,716). Pre-orders will start in April, and it is expected to start shipping in August 2019.

It is not difficult to find that Grin mining machines are really expensive. Is it reasonable to be so expensive? Let's do the math.

▲Data from F2Pool

At present, the total network computing power of C31 is 133.84Kg. Taking G1PLUS as an example, its computing power is 500g, which means that the GPU computing power currently mined by C31 is almost equal to 274 G1PLUS units. For G1MINI, it is almost 2740 units.

This shows that once the Grin mining machine is launched, the C31 algorithm will immediately dominate the Asic mining machine world. Moreover, the initial profit is extremely high.

Grin produces 60 blocks per minute, and 86,400 blocks are produced in 24 hours. In September, the ratio of C29 and C31 algorithms was adjusted to 6:4. That is to say, the C31 algorithm can produce about 34,560 blocks in September. Based on the current Grin unit price of $3.14, the output value is $108,518.4. Assuming there are only 274 G1PLUS in the market, the average profit per unit is $396 (2772RMB). From this point of view, it is not surprising that the unit price of G1PULS is nearly 136,000 RMB. After all, it seems to have paid back in 50 days. You know, the first shot of Asic mining machines always makes a lot of money.

However, you must think there is something wrong. That's right. The problem is that there cannot be only 274 mining machines in the market. Assuming the price of the currency does not rise, if many mining machines are put into the market at once, the computing power will increase greatly, and there will be too many people and too little porridge, and the income will be greatly reduced, and the payback period will also be extended.

In July, Obelisk publicly announced that it had given up on developing Grin mining machines and refunded the subscription price in full. The reason was a lack of development funds and a lack of interest in Grin. This more or less reflects the fierce competition in the Grin mining machine market and the market concerns caused by Grin not soaring as expected.

Qiu Xiaodong told Babbitt that the development of Grin ASIC mining machines is not technically difficult, but more of a concern about market expectations. Previously, mining machine manufacturers have achieved successful laboratory production, but the costs involved in the sale of ASIC mining machines include R&D, tape-out, marketing, warehousing and logistics, etc. The current inflation rate, total market value, and coin price of Grin cannot support large-scale distribution by multiple manufacturers, so basically manufacturers are in a wait-and-see state.

When will Grin welcome its first ASIC mining machine? How many machines will be used for mining? This is a market game question. Babbitt consulted both Innosilicon and Microcomputer but did not get a definite answer. However, Innosilicon Technology previously announced that the expected delivery time is August, while Microcomputer Technology is October. We believe that we are not far from the time node for the launch of Grin mining machines.

▲Grin price trend chart (from Feixiaohao)

Here is a story about a disaster caused by a huge increase in computing power in the past.

DCR, Dexincoin, had an independent trend in early 2018. In April, the first Asic mining machine was launched. According to Toneninsight, its payback period was only one month. However, after May, the price of DCR began to fall. Not only that, as of April 2019, 13 mining machines were launched in turn, and the computing power skyrocketed. DCR miners who entered the market at a bad time experienced an unforgettable experience of life and death.

Weng Ziyao, co-founder of Maoqiu Technology, once said that the Dash mining machine Antminer D3 was sold for 13,000 yuan when it first came out, and then it was hyped up to 26,000, 28,000, and 30,000 yuan. At the beginning, the machine made a daily profit of 1,800 to 2,000 yuan. The manufacturer advertised: This is not a mining machine, it is a small home money printing machine. As a result, mining machines continued to be launched, the computing power soared, and the daily income dropped from 1,800 to 24 yuan. "A machine bought for more than 50,000 yuan has a daily profit of 24 yuan. Do you know how long it will take to get back the money?" He complained about the sad past at a roundtable forum.

In 2019, small mining coins became a hot topic, and "monster coins" appeared frequently. However, relatively speaking, these currencies have remained in the GPU mining stage. It is rare to hear that mining machine manufacturers are willing to launch Asic mining machines. A big reason for this is the skyrocketing and plummeting of coin prices, and the existing size may not be able to support Asic mining machines.

Grin is a PoW currency that has emerged in the current era of the Staking economy. The entry of Asic mining machines is still worth looking forward to. After all, this is the coming-of-age ceremony for PoW currencies. Moreover, many people believe that the bull market before Bitcoin halving will definitely come.