Popular Science | Panorama of the Mining Industry

Popular Science | Panorama of the Mining Industry

As of July 2019, Bitcoin miners generated more than $6 billion in revenue annually (including mining rewards and transaction fees).

The underlying hardware and mining activities that secure Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are an often overlooked market in the cryptocurrency space. However, mining, combined with trading, is one of the core markets that generates significant profits.

In this article, I will share an overview of the field of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency mining, the basic hardware that supports mining, the industry's ecology, and delve into the revenue and market size of this field.

Introduction to the Principles of Cryptocurrency Mining

Proof of Work (mining) is the process of adding new transactions to the Bitcoin blockchain and reaching agreement (consensus) on the proper order of these transactions.

My favorite analogy for this process is to think of it as a Sudoku puzzle. It's a hard problem that takes a lot of brain cells to solve, but once you solve it, it's easy for others to verify whether your answer is correct.

Essentially, miners (geographically dispersed computers around the world) compete to solve a computationally intensive puzzle that, once solved, confirms the next block on the blockchain (along with the transactions packaged in the block). The first miner to solve the puzzle gets a block reward ("coinbase reward" + transaction fees). Once a new block is created, all miners in the network can verify the correctness of the block and then enter the competition to solve the next block puzzle.

The role of miners in the Bitcoin and blockchain ecosystem

All computers around the world competing to solve the next puzzle are participants in the mining ecosystem. Aggregable computing resources are one of the core elements that provide the fundamental security of Bitcoin.

Through this network, Bitcoin users can expect to:

  • Their transactions will be confirmed by the Bitcoin blockchain.
  • Their transactions will be packaged in the correct order (to prevent the same money from being spent twice).
  • The history of the Bitcoin blockchain will remain unchanged (immutable).

In return, miners can receive both newly mined bitcoins ("Coinbase Rewards") and transaction fees for each transaction in the block. If users want their transactions to be included in the Bitcoin blockchain in a timely manner, they can voluntarily increase the transaction fees they pay for their transactions.

Hardware for mining

 

In the early days of the Bitcoin network, it was profitable to mine Bitcoin using consumer-grade CPUs, however, as the Bitcoin network has grown to its current size, doing so is no longer practical.

Currently, mining machines in the Bitcoin ecosystem are dominated by Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). For most other cryptocurrencies, Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) and Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) are the main mining machine forms. There are also many cryptocurrencies that use the same hashing algorithm (SHA256) as Bitcoin, which are also compatible with Bitcoin's ASIC mining machines.

The landscape of the mining ecosystem

 

Below is a panoramic view of the mining ecosystem from chips to end users:

OEM

TSMC and Samsung are the two core semiconductor manufacturers that produce the silicon wafers that all mining hardware is made of. TSMC, in particular, has a dominant position in the chipset supply chain.

For example: Nvidia, AMD, Xilinx, Bitmain, and Canaan Creative all use TSMC for their core production lines.

* Samsung OEM is affiliated with Samsung Electronics

Packaging, testing, assembly

After the wafers are produced, you need to test them, cut them, package them into final chips, and then retest them. This entire process is usually handled by OSAT companies (outsourced assembly and test companies), the two largest of which are ASE Group (Taiwan) and Amkor Technology.
company Market Cap client Remark
ASE Group 18 billion USD Nvidia, AMD Headquartered in Taiwan
Amkor Technology 1.8 billion USD Unknown* Headquartered in the United States
Siliconware Precision Industries, Inc. (SPIL) US$4 billion (acquired) Acquired by ASE Group for US$4 billion
* The vast majority of IC companies do not disclose their OSAT suppliers.

Integrated circuit design and manufacturing

Companies that design and sell chips are often referred to as fabless chip companies (the manufacturing itself is handled by foundries and OSAT companies).

For GPUs, the top two manufacturers are Nvidia and AMD. For FPGAs, the top manufacturer is Xilinx. For ASIC chips, which are used specifically for cryptocurrency mining, the top three manufacturers are Bitmain, Canaan Creative, and Pangolin Miner (the manufacturer of the Whatsminer line of mining machines).

In addition to these three types of manufacturers, there are some other integrated circuit design companies in this industry, including: Yibit, Xindong Technology, Bitfury, Obelisk, and some other companies.

* Nvidia and AMD make GPUs for all use cases, not just mining. ** Market share estimates from Jon Peddie Research. *** Final valuation after Bitmain and Canaan failed to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. **** Valuation based on conversations with major miners and earlier IPO filings.

Miners and mines

Once the chip is produced, it can be used to mine cryptocurrencies. ASIC chips are designed to mine a specific mining algorithm (usually SHA256 or Bitcoin), while GPUs are more flexible.

Miners range from people mining with a single machine, small mining operations (5-10 machines), medium-sized farms (10-100 machines), large-scale farms (100-1,000 machines) to industrial-scale farms (1,000+ machines). The largest farms I’ve heard of so far run as many as 100,000 machines across multiple regions.

In addition to designing chips, some manufacturers also participate in mining themselves (such as Bitmain, Canaan Creative, and Pangolin). For example, Bitmain publicly discloses their own mining status every month.

Miners of all sizes can join a mining pool (described in more detail later), and if the mine is large enough, they can also mine solo - pooling only their own hash power to directly find blocks, without mixing it with other miners.

* A somewhat controversial point is that manufacturers of mining chips may use them for mining before selling them. However, if you actually have a profitable device, there is no reason to leave it sitting in a warehouse, and you may also use it for mining before selling it.

Mining pools (single-currency and multi-currency)

For individual to non-industrial miners, it is more economically reasonable to join a mining pool rather than mining alone. A mining pool pools the hash power of many miners, making the return curve of each miner smoother. The mining pool is responsible for optimizing all hash power, running mining programs, collecting and distributing rewards, and charging additional fees for these services.

Some mining pools focus on mining specific cryptocurrencies (such as SparkPool, which focuses on Ethereum and Grin), while other mining pools have set up multiple mining pools covering all major cryptocurrencies (AntPool, F2Pool, CoinInPool, Slushpool, etc.). All of these mining pools started out focusing on mining a single cryptocurrency (usually Bitcoin) and later expanded to cover all forms of cryptocurrencies.

One of my favorite analogies about how mining pools work is to think of it like an office lottery pool. By pooling everyone’s tickets together, each person (miner) has a greater chance of winning a reward.

However, using a mining pool means trusting the mining pool - the exact share of computing power owned by each person and the reasonable income are recorded and distributed by the mining pool. To increase transparency, there are services like PoolWatch that track and compare reports from various mining pools.

Mining Pools market share Cryptocurrency mined Remark
AntPool 34% of Bitcoin’s hashrate BTC, BCH, LTC, ZEC, ETH, and other cryptocurrencies. Bitmain owns AntPool and BTC.com mining pool, so they are combined in this column.
Fishpond 13% of Bitcoin’s hashrate BTC, LTC, ETH, ZEC, Grin, XMR, and other cryptocurrencies.
Biyin Mining Pool 9% of Bitcoin’s hashrate BTC, BCH, BSV, ZEC, LTC, and other cryptocurrencies.
Slushpool 8% of Bitcoin hashrate BTC and ZEC
Spark Mining Pool 25% of Ethereum hashrate ETH, Grin, Beam

Hash power market

In addition to mining directly, miners can also sell their computing power to others. In reality, there is also such a computing power trading market - the largest market at present is NiceHash. In addition, there is a smaller peer-to-peer computing power market: Mining Rig Rentals.

In these markets, people can both sell their hashrate and/or buy hashrate — for any algorithm in any cryptocurrency. While there are many reasons why people buy hashrate, one of the main reasons is that buying hashrate is a gateway to owning cryptocurrency.

Many times people use computing power to speculate on various cryptocurrencies - for example, they want to purchase hash power suitable for SHA256 to mine BSV instead of Bitcoin (which is really a bad deal...)

Cloud Mining

Cloud mining is a direct buying and selling of computing power contracts, where consumers do not need to touch any hardware. It is somewhat similar to the computing power market mentioned above, which is usually operated by a centralized supplier.

The two largest companies in this space are Genesis Mining (USA) and Bitdeer (Asia). Also similar to what was mentioned above, one of the main reasons people use cloud mining services is that buying computing power is seen as a gateway to cryptocurrencies. In this way, people can use fiat currency to directly purchase Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies without going through an exchange.

Smart Miner

Smart miners are a new category that has recently emerged. Mining is a complex task that requires participants to understand hardware, networks, energy, computing power forecasts, and optimization for specific algorithms. In addition, all of these factors are constantly changing every day as new cryptocurrencies continue to emerge and old cryptocurrencies disappear.

Smart mining software like Honeyminer aims to optimize all of the above factors at the same time, so that ordinary consumers and professionals can earn as much as possible with the computing power they have. There are also two other similar products - HashFish and Cudo Miner.

In a short period of time, these products have gathered considerable computing power on the supply side.

Mining market size and revenue

 

On an annual basis, the cryptocurrency mining industry generates more than $8 billion in profits each year.

In all proof-of-work blockchains, profits come from block rewards and transaction fees included in each block. According to the latest mining reward data released by CoinMetrics on June 25, 2019, below is the weekly, monthly, and annual mining revenue of the mining industry.

assets Mining Weekly Income Monthly mining income Mining annual income
Bitcoin $139 million $556 million $66 billion
Ethereum $28 million $112 million 13 billion USD
Litecoin $14 million $56 million $672 million
Bitcoin Cash 5 million USD US$20 million $240 million
ZCash 4 million USD $16 million $192 million
total $186 million $144 million 89 billion USD


In the world of cryptocurrency mining, Bitcoin still dominates, with the Bitcoin network alone generating 75% of mining revenue.

This also matches Bitcoin’s dominant market share today (July 1, 2019). According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin accounts for 60% of the market cap.

However, the overall profits generated by the mining industry are directly tied to the price of the cryptocurrencies it mines, so it in turn directly affects the cryptocurrency market (hence, it is difficult for Wall Street to understand the companies in this industry). More on this below.

Understanding the profitability of mining

 


The overall profits, costs, and profitability of mining industry participants are influenced by a few key factors.

Capital Expenditure (Capex)

The main capital expense for a miner is the cost of the mining machine itself plus all the facilities/buildings needed to operate that machine.


For example, if you want to purchase 10,000 of the latest Antminer S17s produced by Bitmain at retail price, it will cost you $16 million. Large miners can purchase at special prices. However, when the demand for mining machines is so high that it is difficult to guarantee supply, the price discount will be small.

That’s before factoring in the cost of building the facilities that would take mining from a hobby to a truly professional, industrial-scale project.

 

Operating Cost (Opex)

For miners, the main operating cost is the electricity required to run the mining machines every day.


For example, if you run 10,000 Bitmain S17 mining machines 24/7, at $0.05 per kWh, it will cost you $36,000 per day (about $13 million per year) in electricity - just to keep the mining machines running.

The average electricity bill varies greatly depending on the location of the mining machine and the source of electricity used:

Miners are naturally motivated to seek out the cheapest energy sources in the world, which is why Coinshares estimates that 75% of the electricity that powers the Bitcoin network comes from renewable sources, primarily hydropower.

In addition to the electricity costs required to keep the mining machines running, other uninterrupted operating costs include: heat dissipation, labor, maintenance, security and general facility operations. Generally speaking, it can be roughly estimated that the uninterrupted operating costs are 1.5 times the electricity costs.

Based on our example above of operating 10,000 Bitmain S17 miners, a rough estimate of the cost is:

  • $16 million capital expenditure + $3 million (import taxes) + $4 million (facilities + security)
  • $20 million operating costs (per year)
  • $67 million in potential gains (based on today’s Bitcoin price)
The above is just a rough estimate, intended only to show the scale of the various costs that miners will need to pay. The actual cost will depend entirely on your geographical location, the building you use, etc.
However, these costs will continue to change due to market factors that we will describe below.

Market factors

 



While capital expenditures and operating costs are two factors that miners can control, market forces largely determine the profitability of mining.

Miner Costs & Visible Supply

Unlike many traditional products, mining machine manufacturers (Bitmain, Canaan Creative, Shenma Mining Machine, etc.) will adjust the price of mining machines according to the profitability of the mining machines (Bitcoin price).
When the price of cryptocurrencies rises sharply, the price of mining machines themselves will also fluctuate sharply. During the frenzy, the entire secondary market is rushing to buy more mining machines, and even old mining machines can be turned around.
In general, I always want the machine to be priced close to the fair value that can be created at that point in time.
In addition, the supply of mining machines is often limited, especially the newer ones. Continuing with the Bitmain S17 mining machine mentioned above, these machines have been sold out. When I talked to some people on the team, they told me that they did not expect to be able to guarantee sufficient supply before early November.

Hashrate

A miner's chance of getting the right to package the next block is proportional to the proportion of their computing power to the entire Bitcoin network computing power (for simplicity, Bitcoin is used for illustration).
To put it in the simplest terms, if you, as a miner, own 1% of the total Bitcoin computing power, then you can expect to receive 1% of the total rewards from the Bitcoin network.
However, the total hashrate of the Bitcoin network is always changing, so the profitability of each miner depends on how many miners join or leave the ecosystem. The Bitcoin protocol has an internal method to adjust the mining difficulty (want to learn more? See here).

Bitcoin Price

Because block rewards are paid directly in the underlying cryptocurrency. For example, if you are mining Bitcoin, then the block rewards you earn are paid in Bitcoin. Therefore, the value of the reward is directly tied to the price of Bitcoin itself.
The more valuable Bitcoin is, the more valuable the mining reward is. To engage in mining, you must sincerely believe in the cryptocurrency you mine, because your profitability depends on it.
One of the main reasons why Bitcoin has dominated all cryptocurrencies (except for the first one) is its transparent, open and fair issuance schedule. From the genesis block, Bitcoin has a fixed issuance schedule that sets an upper limit on its issuance - a maximum of 21 million Bitcoins will be created.
Mining is a way to create Bitcoin and circulate it around the world, and today the block reward for each Bitcoin is 12.5 Bitcoins; however, this amount decreases every 210,000 blocks mined. When the 630,000th block (estimated to be around May 24, 2020) is mined, the block reward will be reduced to 6.25 Bitcoins - this is also known as a halving event.
To understand how previous halving events have affected Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency networks, check out this great article from CoinMetrics where they break down previous halving events.
If you want to learn more about Bitcoin’s issuance schedule and what happens when all Bitcoins are mined, see these two articles on Bitcoin issuance and overall security budget (shout out to Dan Held for his comprehensive coverage).
To sum up in one sentence - the price of Bitcoin and the basic issuance plan of Bitcoin greatly affect the profitability of mining itself.

My main takeaways

 



After doing some in-depth research on the field of cryptocurrency mining, here are my biggest takeaways:
  • We often overlook the important role that the mining industry and infrastructure hardware play in blockchain networks.
  • Hash power = Cryptocurrency = Money. For many people, hash power is the key to entering the crypto world.
  • Just as we saw the financialization of Bitcoin, I predict we will see a similar financialization of hash power.
If you are an entrepreneur in this space who is starting a hashrate marketplace, an exchange, providing financial products, or any other service related to the mining industry, I would love to talk to you. You can find my contact information on our fund’s website: Proof of Capital.
Many thanks to Edith Yeung, Noah Jessop, Jane Wu, and several other miners who were willing to provide anonymous feedback for this report.
(over)



Original link:

https://www.chrismccann.com/blog/crypto-mining-101-overview-and-landscape-of-the-mining-industry

Author: Chris McCann

Translation & Proofreading: Zeng Mi & A Jian

This article is authorized by the original author to be translated and republished by EthFans.


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