Is this the last chance to get on board before the bull market?

Recently I have seen many bloggers talking about this last chance to get on board before the bull market. I don’t know how many people really believe it , because judging from the results of the vote at the end of the previous article:

Only 10% of my friends think that the price will recover quickly in the future , and more than 50% think that it will fall even lower. I remember that it was not like this a few months ago.

It seems that this week's big drop has increased the pessimism in the market, so sometimes I feel that it is not easy to be a blogger who shouts orders against the trend. Although if you really want to make money in this market, you need to go against the crowd.

So is it a good time to buy now? (For mainstream currencies including Bitcoin)

My personal opinion is that you can choose to wait a little longer, but you are already in a very cost-effective buying range . Of course, this is still for medium- to long-term holdings of at least half a year. As for the hourly lines and contracts, you can only ask God.

1. Why is it said that now is a very cost-effective buying range:

On the one hand, as Mr. Jiang said:

According to historical data, the extent of the correction in the bull market cycle is basically around 40%. In this round, Bitcoin has already retreated 44%, which should be considered an area with limited decline and imaginable room for growth.

In fact, we mentioned a similar view in an earlier article:

On the other hand , the above content is based on the logic of the bull market cycle. One thing that needs to be understood is that our judgment of trends is often lagging, so we cannot confirm whether we are in an upward cycle, but this actually does not matter much.

Let’s look at an indicator: Fixed Investment Index (website: https://dcabtc.com/)

This is a webpage that backs the fixed investment returns. Currently, there is only BTC . We have used the fixed investment tool on Gate to do related content before, but the data on Gate is only for the past one or two years, unlike the more complete data on this website. If you are interested, you can go and have a look.

The above chart shows the yield curve of investing $100 in BTC every week starting two years ago. In two years, a total of $10,500 was invested. As of today, the total value is $13,718, with a yield of 30%.

Don’t think this return is small. In the middle, we experienced a big bull market that reached a peak of 20,000. During this period, we had fixed investments and were in a loss-making state for a considerable period of time. But now you are seeing positive returns, which are even much better than gold and stocks. It is already a miracle.

I am not trying to force you to make regular investments. This decision is up to the individual. I just want to remind you that you are now almost on the same starting line as the old investors two years ago, and such a time period is not common in the cryptocurrency circle.

I only learned about digital currency at the end of 2015. From getting started to going back to zero, and then restarting in the bull market in 2017, when I really understood what this market was, I really wished I could go back to the period of 2015-2016, but until now.

If we look at the line, it took about a year in 2015 for the price to return to the previous low point:

So, cherish the present time, young people.

2. Why can you choose to wait a little longer?

If you are doing some trend trading, an indicator that you cannot do without is market sentiment. Generally speaking, when the public starts to get enthusiastic, short-term buying will incur losses, and when despair spreads, it is also a stage where long-term investment risks are very low.

Market sentiment also has cycles. Let’s review the previous picture:

The reason why I say we can still wait a little bit is that I feel that now is not the most desperate time. After all, if the market drops a little, many people will be able to emerge from each group and joke around. People may still be in a stage of panic, anger and surrender.

Just one thing to note is that since we cannot 100% predict the cycle at present, if it is an upward cycle, this period of despair is likely to be very short.

Conclusion

It is estimated that everyone now has no intention of speculating in cryptocurrencies and is eager to celebrate their birthdays. Thousands of words can be summed up in one sentence: cherish the opportunity of market discounts!