If the bull market does not come when Bitcoin halving, the market may face a disaster

Editor's note: This article comes from Baihua Blockchain (ID: hellobtc), author: Mu Mu, and is reprinted with permission from Odaily Planet Daily.

Although the consensus that Bitcoin halving will bring about a big market has been deeply rooted in people's minds, many people still feel that something is wrong. Even though blockchain has regained some confidence after it was recently elevated to a national strategy, it is clear that the main focus is to move away from the virtual and toward the real and to prevent risks.

After all, no one can predict the future, and the market may not always develop according to the expectations of most people, so many people continue to worry: Will the Bitcoin halving usher in a bull market? If not, what will happen?

Bitcoin halving may not be the main reason for the bull market?

All along, various "cycle theories" and "belief theories" have been heard frequently, which seem to brainwash people frequently: "Every time Bitcoin is halved, there will be a big bull market, and the halving cycle is the bull-bear cycle." However, in connection with the previous two bull markets, we found that the last bull market brought huge amounts of funds to smart contracts, and the blockchain that issued tokens through smart contracts and the expectations it brought to the market, while the previous round was due to the outbreak of the concept of digital gold, and a number of copycats soared along with Bitcoin.

In our earlier article “The Satoshi Curse: There has never been a mainstream currency, only altcoins that will eventually disappear”, we mentioned that Bitcoin halving is like a “curse” set by Satoshi Nakamoto, which brings huge volume every time. The halving curse is like a fuse or a lever fulcrum, a strong injection of “chicken blood” every four years, instantly amplifying everyone’s expectations.

So the question is, if there is no breakthrough technology and solution in this halving, in other words, no new value will emerge. When the fuse of Bitcoin halving has burned out and there is no new leverage object, what can support the huge expectations and attract funds to support the bull market? At first glance, it seems that Bitcoin halving is indeed strongly related to the bull market, but it may not be the main reason.

If Bitcoin halving does not lead to a bull market, will the consequences be serious?

This year's crypto market, after several months of volatility, has fallen into endless silence again. Investors, entrepreneurs, and project owners are all struggling, and even many former star project teams have shown signs of being unable to hold on, and have "returned the project to the community." What are they struggling for? It's definitely not chicken soup, but waiting for the Bitcoin halving, and then hoping to get their money back, repay their loans, and get rich...

Because of the strong expectations of the halving, the first to place bets are miners. Since the flood season this year, miners have begun to prepare for the important "decisive battle" every four years. They have invested more than 10 billion yuan, hoping that the big market after the halving will bring a big harvest, "one vote and five years of living". As a result, we can see that the Bitcoin mining computing power this year is also constantly setting new highs, and the Bitcoin halving date has been forcibly brought forward to May 2020. If the computing power continues to rise, it may be brought forward again.

Everything is ready, only the east wind is missing. What if the east wind does not come? First of all, the huge expectations of the miners may be dashed, and no one will pay for it. Then the hearts of the new and old "leeks" who have survived since the peak of the last bull market will inevitably be hit hard. The halving of Bitcoin and the lack of a bull market are tantamount to the collapse of consensus. It is not easy for those who can persist until 2020, and they can only exit if they can't.

The blockchain industry, which was originally in a state of disrepair, will also suffer a heavy blow. Without funds and people, how can entrepreneurial teams continue to support themselves? I dare not imagine what serious consequences will be brought about by the halving of Bitcoin and the failure of the bull market.

The bull market is not coming, is it because blockchain is not ready yet?

Regarding the Bitcoin halving, don’t talk about the historical cycle repeating itself or making some kind of divine prediction. The market ultimately needs real value to support it.

There is now a clear watershed in the mainstream understanding of blockchain. Many people still believe that blockchain is immature, so it is currently unsafe, inefficient, slow, dark, wasteful, etc. In fact, many criticisms come from the comparison between blockchain technology and existing technology solutions, such as the mature and efficient Internet. Many people are also happy to use existing mature technologies to verify whether new technologies are good enough and valuable enough, but perhaps this is wrong.

In fact, many people also had the same understanding of new technologies when facing the early Internet. In the beginning, not many people knew how important the Internet was because it was really too difficult. For example:

30 years ago, when the Internet was first put into use, when people in different places wanted to send emails to each other, the steps were: turn on the computer, dial up the Internet, open the email client, and send emails. The process seems very simple, but in fact, the early computer hardware and software configurations were very low compared to today. Not only was the computer very slow to boot, the blue screen crashed frequently, the network transmission speed was also very slow, and various costs were very expensive. It might take dozens of minutes to send an email. This was simply a "chicken rib" technology for many people at the time. The telephone, which was invented in 1860, was already a very stable and efficient communication technology.

"Why bother sending emails? If there is anything, can't it be solved by making a phone call in a few minutes?" At that time, many people thought that Internet technology was inefficient, unsafe, wasteful of electricity, expensive, and had many other problems, which was not much different from the current view that blockchain technology was useless. However, some scientists and geeks were very excited about this technology because they truly saw the future and believed that it could really change the world.

If the bull market that everyone is looking forward to is delayed, it must be that blockchain is not ready yet, and many people are not ready to accept it. However, just like the Internet back then, it does not mean that we can underestimate it, because the speed of technology is faster than we think.

In fact, many people are familiar with the "blockchain" black material is wrong

There are many popular opinions on the uselessness of Bitcoin and blockchain in the market. In fact, most of them come from people who have only a superficial understanding of Bitcoin and blockchain. If people do not fully understand them, it is easy to believe these "heresies". Once people really understand them seriously, they will find that these are correct:

1. Blockchain is very safe. At present, it seems that blockchain accidents are frequent, but they are all due to some program and contract design loopholes and people's own weak security awareness. Most of them are still security issues of the Internet itself. Compared with traditional centralized network services, a truly powerful blockchain network like Bitcoin is much safer. This does not need any proof at all. You only need to know that the top hackers in the network security industry fully believe in and use Bitcoin. Who else has more say than them? It is not just network security. In terms of the security protection of personal private property, it is difficult to find a safer asset in the world except gold.

2. Blockchain is efficient rather than inefficient. If we compare the efficiency of blockchain network with mature Internet centralized network, it is like a saying: "Don't argue with a fool, he will pull you down to his level and then beat you with rich experience". Putting aside the basic conditions of the long-term maturity of Internet technology, blockchain technology and Internet technology are completely different things. Blockchain is to the Internet as the Internet is to the telephone. The Internet focuses on providing high-speed information transmission, while blockchain is a layer of "value transmission" solution loaded on the Internet.

The Internet alone can never achieve trustless transmission of value, that is, it can never reach a consensus directly, and the blockchain network was born for value transmission. Therefore, if the Internet cannot achieve value transmission, its efficiency is completely equal to 0. How can we compare? On the Bitcoin network, tens of millions, hundreds of millions, or even billions of dollars of value are often transferred in a short time and with a few dollars in fees. Which bank or institution in the world can be so efficient? How can the blockchain be said to be inefficient and slow?

3. The point that blockchain is bright rather than dark seems to be the most targeted, and many people have already fully debated it. We only need to know that any money in the world is "dirty" enough. The greedier humans are, the darker they are. If we pile these money and Bitcoin together, it will be a dark patch, and we think no one can tell which one is darker.

On the contrary, we know that regulators are beginning to use the traceability of blockchain to track crimes. In the future, the transparency of blockchain will strictly distinguish between real legitimate privacy needs and illegal needs.

postscript

The reason why human beings can continue to progress is that there are always some people who will jump out of the closed rules and regulations to innovate and develop. Decades ago, many people have seriously underestimated the Internet. Now, are there more people who want to seriously underestimate blockchain?

In fact, the most terrifying thing at the moment is not that the Bitcoin halving bull market has not yet arrived, but that we know that blockchain will definitely have a future, but find that we (the team) have no way to survive until that day.