It is early spring, the year of Zi and Hai is about to start, and 2020 has opened in its own unique way, with both opportunities and challenges. On February 15, the first episode of the "Mining News Broadcast" column of Mining.com was fortunate to invite Liu Kuan, CEO of Jiejie Mining, Chen Lei, founder of BitBlue Whale, Pan Yu, co-founder of Baichuan Chain Service, and Da Jun, co-founder of Inner Mongolia Yunling Venture Capital , to the live broadcast room to discuss with everyone "How can the mining industry break through the many challenges in 2020?" The following is the full content of the live broadcast Zhang Yuan: Some friends don’t know what a “black swan event” is. Let us first ask media observer Jian Ge to give you some basic knowledge about what a “black swan event” is. Wang Jiajian: Black swan events refer to those events that are very difficult to predict and unusual. They usually cause a chain reaction of negative reactions in the market, which means unexpected risks. The revelation of black swan events to people may be that once it happens, the loss may be heavy, so even when the sea is calm, we must control the risk and leave room for maneuver. Zhang Yuan: All of today’s guests are experienced in the industry. I would like to ask you to take stock of any well-known “black swan events” that have occurred in the currency or mining circles? Pan Yu: The black swan event that impressed me the most was the hacking of Binance users’ accounts in March 2018. At that time, a large number of users found that the digital currencies in their accounts were maliciously exchanged. Many users found that the various tokens and digital currencies held in their Binance accounts were traded into BTC in real-time currency-to-currency transactions at the market price. Because a large number of tokens were sold at the market price, most currencies began to fall, and retail investors in the market who did not know the truth also joined the panic selling. The hackers had already posted "short orders for digital currencies and tokens" on various exchanges around the world. They turned around and left through a decentralized attack that was a diversion. This sounds like a plot from a movie, but it is a nightmare that many people in the currency circle have actually experienced. Da Jun: Speaking of "black swans", I think of the once most famous Mt.Gox exchange, which once occupied 90% of the market share, but lost 850,000 bitcoins worth about 450 million US dollars due to a hacker attack on February 24, 2014, and the exchange went bankrupt four days later. In March of the same year, 12.3% of the bitcoins of the US Poloniex exchange were stolen, and on December 16, 300 bitcoins in the BLOCKCHIAN.INFO wallet were stolen by white hat hacker Johoe. Until today, security has always been the first factor that all exchange platforms need to improve. Liu Kuan: There have been several huge black swan events in the cryptocurrency circle, mainly due to policy intervention. For example, in 2013, five ministries and commissions issued the "Notice on Preventing Bitcoin Risks"; in 2017, seven ministries and commissions issued the "Notice on Preventing Token Issuance and Financing Risks"; and the development of mining machine giants' technology prevented the price of coins from falling for 15 months. In August 2018, Canaan Creative first mass-produced 7nm ASIC mining machine chips, which attracted widespread attention in the IT industry because it to a certain extent indicated that China's chip industry has been at the forefront of the world. In September, Bitmain also released 7nm ASIC chips. The performance of chips does not only depend on the process. The dark horse of mining machines, Shenma Mining Machine, optimized the 16nm chip and brought the performance and power consumption of the M10 mining machine to the level of 7nm mining machines. Unfortunately, 2018 ushered in a huge explosion in chip technology, but it was also the most difficult year for mining machines. As the price of coins continued to decline, mainstream mining machines were hard to come by, even though the price was 23 times higher at the beginning of the year. The price gradually fell, and second-hand machines were even reduced to scrap and sold by the kilogram at the end of the year. Chen Lei: In the first quarter of 2018, we had a heavy position in ETH and invested a lot in graphics cards at high prices, resulting in heavy losses. We then reflected and transformed ourselves, and have been striving to become an operating service provider. At the same time, we have been researching and developing risk control tools and products to protect our customers' survival and development. Because we have always focused on customer demands, I don't have much experience with black swan events. Zhang Yuan: What impact has the current situation had on your business? How do you respond? Pan Yu: Relatively speaking, there is still a certain impact on the data center site. People and materials cannot enter, and logistics is not smooth. The news we received on the 12th was that some logistics and express delivery companies such as Deppon have resumed work one after another. Our response to the sites in Sichuan and Yunnan is relatively good. Since we purchase sufficient supplies and materials every year during the Spring Festival, the Inner Mongolia site is a cooperative unit and is not so well prepared. The overseas sites have not been affected at present. Since this year's supercomputing equipment is new equipment with high computing power, the preparation of spare parts is not so sufficient, especially the power supply of the Antminer 17 series is not available at all, and the official maintenance points have not been opened yet. Fortunately, the quality of the 17 series is still good. I hope that BITMAIN can open the power supply solution as soon as possible so that we, the power supply manufacturers, can keep up with the pace of the times. The catering industry is still waiting for notification from relevant departments. As a traditional industry, the impact is relatively widespread, mainly in terms of capital flow, personnel management, and food supply. After the epidemic, a part of the catering industry will transform and provide online services. We are also exploring new models during this period, and we will strengthen our confidence and work hard. Da Jun: Let's briefly analyze the recent situation of BTC mining: First, the computing power of the entire network will be stagnant due to the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic, which has led to logistics obstruction and delayed resumption of work by mining machine manufacturers. Secondly, due to the rise in the prices of mainstream currencies such as BCH and BSV, the corresponding miners' income has increased, which will also disperse part of Bitcoin's computing power; thirdly, the old mines can basically maintain stable operation at present. The only thing affected is the postponement of the resumption of work of the mine operation and maintenance personnel and the after-sales problems of the mining machine manufacturers, which will cause the online rate of mining machines to decrease. Unless there is a large-scale power outage, the magnitude will be very small; The impact of this epidemic on newly built and under-construction mining farms is quite huge. They are currently basically in a stagnant state and may remain so for a long time. After mining is hindered due to the epidemic, new funds will turn to purchasing computing power products or existing mining machines in operation in mining farms to stop losses. Liu Kuan: The current epidemic is not over yet. In order to control the spread of the epidemic, most logistics and express delivery industries have delayed their start-up, which has had a certain degree of impact on the transportation of mining machines. With the gradual resumption of work in the logistics industry, this situation will improve quickly. Another issue is the resumption of work of personnel. Due to the epidemic, many mining machine manufacturers have also delayed the start of work to supply mining machines, and the construction progress of mining sites in various places has also been slightly delayed. I believe these situations will get better soon. Now express delivery is gradually starting. Shenzhen Debang and SF Express have already started work. Debang and SF Express in other places have not started work normally. Hebei Debang’s work has been stopped. The notice of the start time is February 17. It can also be shipped now, but the freight cost is higher. We expect that logistics and transportation will be greatly improved next week, and we will send the goods to customers as soon as possible. Chen Lei: This year marks the final year of China's efforts to build a moderately prosperous society in all respects. A sudden epidemic sweeping across the country has brought severe tests to the development of all walks of life. At present, the mining industry will not be greatly affected. I believe that the epidemic control in areas with active mining will soon enter a period of easing. Whether the industrial production capacity above designated size can be recovered in the first quarter by working overtime, and whether the upcoming spring plowing season will be affected, this test is still relatively large. Looking further ahead, the huge employment pressure, the rebound of the real economy, and the manufacturing industry supporting import and export trade will bring complex challenges. Although we do not want this to happen, rationally speaking, the difficulties of these non-mining industries will actually bring some opportunities to the mining industry, including the active sales of online products including digital currencies, safe-haven funds, and institutions seeking new profit points may all look to our industry. It should be said that this is a sensitive period and opportunity period for us with both dangers and opportunities. Zhang Yuan: How long do you think this halving trend will last? Can you also estimate the peak price of the following coins in this trend? Pan Yu: The experiences of the past few years are still fresh in my memory. The second halving of Bitcoin took place in July 2016 when we were in Chengdu. On the day of the halving, some of our industry members drank in a pub to celebrate. This is the third halving of Bitcoin. This year's halving is more difficult to judge than in the past. First of all, more and more coins of various types have appeared, resulting in different flows of funds, more and more institutions participating, and more and more derivative services. I personally think that this halving will have certain investment risks. Don't have too high expectations. There may be surprises. The peak of 11888 is the direction I can see at present. I hope to reach an index of 22888. Da Jun: I think everyone hopes that the bull market will last as long as possible, but what about the value of Bitcoin? "One coin, one villa" will eventually come true. Liu Kuan: As we all know, Bitcoin is halved every four years, and the Bitcoin hashrate will be halved again in mid-May. According to the historical data, the bull market usually lasts for about 6-8 months, followed by a shock consolidation. The current digital currency bull market has just started in the second month, and I feel that the price of the currency will continue to rise. The bull market will not be too long. If you want to make money, you should buy mining machines to enter the market. The price of mining machines is relatively low now, which is very suitable for you. 1. Now the country has placed blockchain technology at the height of national strategy, which shows the importance the country attaches to the blockchain industry. 2. The serious epidemic has prevented many traditional industries from developing normally, and many investors will flock to the currency circle from traditional industries. 3. In May, the difficulty of Bitcoin mining will increase due to the reduction in production. Many low-computing machines are facing the risk of elimination, and the increase in the computing power of the entire network may be relatively moderate. I think that with the support of these good news, it is not a problem for the price of the currency to break through the highest price last year and continue to rise. The short-term goal should be 20,000 US dollars in 2017, about 140,000 RMB. As for whether it can break through 140,000 in 2020, the probability is still very high. The real super bull market should be at the end of 2021. Let's wait and see! Chen Lei: My views on BTC are consistent. The possibility of a big rise is not that high. If there were no sporadic events such as the Sino-US trade dispute, the US-Iran Middle East conflict, and the Chinese epidemic, the possibility of a BTC market would be even lower. I don’t think it is a halving market now, and it has nothing to do with halving. Considering the consistent unfriendly attitude of major economies towards digital currency transactions, the various restrictions on institutional funds entering the pipeline, and the balance of long and short derivatives in the trading market, I believe that the currency price will continue to remain around 10,000, and it will be difficult to break through the historical high. Zhang Yuan: This halving coincides with the iteration of new and old mining machines. The first-generation S9 will also enter the end of its life cycle. What arrangements have you made at this time when opportunities and challenges coexist? Pan Yu: Some of our current S9 machines have been sealed in the warehouse and some have been sold. We are also thinking about this matter. A friend in our community was discussing this matter a few days ago. Due to multiple factors such as the epidemic, computing power, and supply from manufacturers, we decided to dig in a Fengshui period. Da Jun: From last year to now, what miners talk about most is the future of the S9, the magical machine that once dominated the mining circle. Some people shut down the machine and removed it from the shelves early, while others modified it to 2in1 to extend its life. For mines with reliable resources, there is still room for S9 to operate, but the decisive factor still depends on the market. The company's mine is currently in the process of replacing the old with the new, and high-performance mining machines will gradually replace low-computing power mining machines. Liu Kuan: With the arrival of the halving of Bitcoin computing power in May, the cost of starting up S9 will increase exponentially. In the future, if the electricity price remains unchanged, the price of the currency must be above 70,000-80,000 to maintain normal startup, otherwise it will face the fate of being eliminated. The solution to this problem is to find electricity resources with low enough cost to maintain its survival. There are currently two options. One is to build a mine by yourself, which is relatively low in cost, but the uncertainty is relatively large and the risk is very high. The other is to find very cheap high-quality electricity resources at home and abroad. In this regard, we have worked hard to connect with many high-quality electricity resources in 2018-2019. If you are willing to cooperate in building a mine and need electricity resources, you can contact me. At the same time, we are building our own mine. At the beginning of 2019, we built 5 small-scale mines in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and other places. Now there are two Sichuan mines under construction with a load of 80,000. Due to the impact of the epidemic, they have been temporarily suspended. The epidemic should be over soon, and we will resume work soon. In 2020, we will also launch our own cloud computing power APP to lower the investment threshold for customers and better serve our customers. Chen Lei: After two years of transformation and upgrading, we have very little self-owned computing power and do not have much say. But in essence, the industry always relies on the dynamic cycle formed by the two indicators of currency price and electricity cost. There may be some room during the flood season. There are two aspects. On the one hand, we started to gradually clear out old models from the second half of last year. Except for 20,000 units in stock that were used to absorb new power supply loads, the rest were disposed of. Some of them were planned to be relocated to the newly built mine in Kazakhstan. On the other hand, we consolidated the foundation, refined the mining operation services, saved every penny of cost for customers, and fought for every penny of profit. As long as we have the trust and benefits of customers, we have room for survival and development. Zhang Yuan: Many people speculate that due to many factors such as the postponement of production by major manufacturers, insufficient spot inventory, rising logistics costs and the halving market, the price of mining machines will usher in a round of increases. I would like to ask if all the bosses have adjusted their corporate strategies and product sales strategies? Pan Yu: Price growth is determined by market demand. Based on a comprehensive evaluation of demand in the last quarter of 2019, the price of the machine will not increase too much. If the market continues to be around 10,000, the price of the machine will not increase. At present, the customer group that purchases servers has increased with the price of the machine and the professional requirements. The demand for individual users to purchase machines is declining. It is mainly institutional procurement, and then hosted in a professional data center to resell computing power through the platform. At present, the demand for individual users to purchase second-hand machines is still very high, and the turnover rate of second-hand machines is still considerable. At the same time, our business direction this year is mainly focused on derivatives, based on computing power and trading businesses, so that miners and investors can not only get coins but also ensure that they will not lose money and save more coins. At present, there are endless cloud computing power platforms. In order to protect customers' investment risks, we cooperate with multiple platforms to select the best computing power suppliers to ensure user benefits. Da Jun: With the gradual relaxation of national policies, blockchain and digital cryptocurrency have gradually come into people's sight. Now, when people talk about Bitcoin with people around them, they are no longer as scared as they used to be. Of course, there is no need to say much about it for practitioners, but for novices, they will feel both yearning and afraid, and have no idea where to start. Yunling Venture Capital has launched computing power products to solve this problem. With the existing computing power of the mine as a bottom line, it can eliminate the loss problem that users are worried about. After all, the stability of thermal power is obvious to all. The most important thing is actually very simple, which is to solve the consensus and trust mechanism. Liu Kuan: Considering various factors, I think the delay in the start of work will not be too long. However, the inventory of various manufacturers is very small. I feel that mining machines will be out of stock in the next 1-2 months. The price of the coin will remain at around 10,000. The price of the machines will increase, and the price of the coin will also increase. Chen Lei: We, BitBlueWhale, are a long-established domestic comprehensive computing power operation service provider, mainly serving manufacturers, institutions, financial investors and other clients. In 2019, we continued to increase investment and built four new mining farms in southwest and northwest China and Kazakhstan, with a reserve power load of more than 200,000 KVA. In the first quarter of this year, we absorbed more than 50,000 high-standard machine positions. Recently, the flow of factors in the entire market has been restricted. We made preparations early and overcame these difficulties. From New Year's Eve to now, the team has been working day and night to prepare, put on the shelves, and power on the machines to ensure that the customer's equipment can operate stably as soon as possible. This is an important foundation for us to win the trust of our customers. With this as our core capability, we will continue to deepen and strengthen our service capabilities across the entire industry chain. In addition to mining services, Blue Whale currently has one-stop delivery capabilities for large-scale OTC for individuals and institutions, extended warranty for mining machine loans, and cross-border industry chain operation and deployment services. These are all for better serving our Blue Whale customers. Zhang Yuan: Next, we will give the question to our media observer Jian Ge Wang Jiajian: Dajun has been based in Inner Mongolia. Please tell us about the current situation of mining in Inner Mongolia. Everyone talks about Xinjiang, but not many people mention Inner Mongolia, although everyone knows that there are many mining farms there. As far as I know, practitioners in this industry in third- and fourth-tier cities have always had a pain point, which is that the local concepts are relatively conservative and backward. When it comes to blockchain-related industries and investments, everyone thinks they are scammers, and relatives and friends around them don’t understand. Do you feel the same way? Da Jun: It is indeed as you said. This is an embarrassing but realistic question. People around me wonder how a person who does nothing all day long can travel around and fly around. Where does the money come from? When talking about careers, I find it incredible and unbelievable, but this is the real charm of our industry. The situation of domestic mines is roughly the same. Everything is the same. The difference lies in local policies. As the old saying goes, "the local environment and water nurture the local people." Wang Jiajian: Mr. Chen, after the halving, the mining income will be reduced by half. Some people believe that the new generation of high-performance mining machines will become the mainstream, and mining machines such as S9 may be eliminated, and the mining machine industry will complete the renewal. Will this make the previous small and medium-sized miners exit the stage of history? Because their risk tolerance is no longer comparable to that of large miners. What do you think of the future mining landscape? Chen Lei: Looking back at history, the mining industry always experiences a dividend surge cycle first, and then a computing power surge cycle. At present, BTC shows the development characteristics of consolidating its dominant position, slowing volatility, and increasing activity. Under this premise, we are about to face a historic node where BTC production is halved and the transition from abundant to scarce is coming at the same time. This is an irreversible macro background. Based on this background, I believe that this year, the previous generation of mining machines will continue to withdraw from the market. Some of them may remain in some areas due to individual reasons such as low electricity costs and no pressure to recover the cost. But in general, the mining machine market will be updated this year, and the main ASIC chips will enter the single-digit era at the nano level. The topic of small and medium-sized miners exiting the historical stage has been discussed for a long time. I think in fact, in the offline mining field, judging from the proportion of new investments, small and medium-sized players are not about to exit, but have basically exited. This is determined by the decline in profits in the mining industry. The mining industry is heavily dependent on the BTC market. There are not many hedging tools in the secondary market in the past. The profits are not high enough to offset the risk expectations, and exit is inevitable. Regarding the future landscape, I think the industry has a consensus, which can be summarized into four points: 1. Industry concentration continues to increase, and players throughout the industrial chain have more room for development, more hedging tools, and more sources of profit. Small and medium-sized players seek space in the industrial chain through online channels; 2. Financial instruments and financial products are becoming more and more abundant, bringing more scenarios, more gameplay, and more new traffic to the mining industry; 3. As domestic compliance pushes up costs, high-computing chips are insensitive to electricity costs and have higher requirements for a stable environment. The mining industry will move towards globalization faster, and the huge gap between China and other parts of the world in scale advantages, cost advantages, and industrial chain advantages will be further narrowed; 4. Cloud computing power will enter a period of full-domain competition. The mining industry's industrial chain giants, exchange giants, and global computing power customer channel giants will engage in complex and entangled confrontations. All parties will enter with different products for different purposes, but in the end they are all to guard the traffic entrance and open the traffic increase valve. Wang Jiajian: Mr. Liu, some people believe that the biggest impact of the epidemic will be on mining machine dealers, because the circulation of machines has become a problem. Some people also say that dealers benefit the most because the price of coins has risen and mining machines have become more valuable. What are your specific feelings? Do you have any data to support your feelings? Liu Kuan: 1. The current market situation is very good. The price of coins and mining machines are rising. It is a good time to make money. Naturally, I am very happy. 2. With the gradual resumption of logistics and express delivery next week, the circulation problem will be solved. At present, the trend of confirmed infections in the country has dropped significantly, and the situation is improving. Since yesterday, my five couriers have started shipping, namely Postal Express, SF Express, Deppon, YTO Express, and ZTO Express. This means that express delivery has started, and I believe that logistics will resume in the near future. Although the epidemic has had some impact on mining machine manufacturers, due to the effective control of the epidemic by the country, I believe that the impact will gradually disappear in the next two weeks, logistics will return to normal, and factories will resume work. Wang Jiajian: I have always wanted to ask a question. Can't miners buy mining machines directly from mining machine manufacturers? Why are there so many dealers in the mining industry? Who are your customers? What services do you provide to them? How will the business of dealers change in the future? Liu Kuan: Manufacturers are companies that specialize in the production of mining machines, and dealers are companies that specialize in the sales of mining machines. Manufacturers give dealers certain price advantages, and dealers purchase in bulk from manufacturers. This enables companies to devote more energy to product research and development and design, and speed up the development cycle of high-performance machines. Because dealers are professional in the sales of mining machines, with price advantages, dealers can devote their time and energy to the marketing and development of various market segments, which accelerates the pace of development of the entire industry. As the saying goes, professional people do professional things. Our target customers are entrepreneurs who want to transform from traditional industries, investors who specialize in investment, and those who understand blockchain and want to enter the mining circle. As mentioned earlier, we will develop our own cloud computing platform to lower the investment threshold for investors. When we enter the market, we will provide one-stop services including mining machine purchase, hosting, consulting, etc. according to customer needs. As the industry gradually matures, we will invest more energy in customer service in the future, develop more products that meet customer needs, and optimize customer experience. Wang Jiajian: Mr. Pan, I see that Baichuan Chain Service has mining pool and cloud computing business. After the halving, the mining income has been halved, and the mining pool income has also been halved. What do you think about the impact of the halving on the mining pool business? The mining pool business seems to be very simple. Will there be any changes in the mining pool business in the future? In addition, many cloud computing products came out in 2019. Why? Pan Yu: The halving will not have much impact on the mining pool business. Our mining pool business is mainly a niche VIP service, which is mainly provided to computing power cloud and VIP customers. The halving has little impact on our mining pool. We mainly provide more comprehensive services to customers, so we launched our own mining pool, which is what everyone calls the sub-pool business. We are like an early rural supply and marketing cooperative. If you move into Baichuan Mining Village, you only need to provide us with a wallet address and we will take care of the rest. The increase in cloud computing product platforms is an inevitability of industry development. This is a stage of an industry. I started doing IDC business in 2006, and I think it is very similar to this industry. At that time, we were selling IBM Dell Inspur servers and providing computer room hosting services for corporate users. It was not until the emergence of some cloud computing products such as Alibaba Cloud in 2009 that some small enterprises and personal teams began to choose these cloud computing services. Cloud computing power itself is a channel for users to own digital currency simply and conveniently, eliminating many complicated processes. The large number of computing power platforms also leads to more choices for users, and risks also follow. Choose a computing power platform with a good reputation and credibility. The best hashnest computing power nest started to provide online leasing services in 2019 and was later acquired by Bitmain. It currently has 400,000 registered users. Free Q&A time Q: Can you give me a prediction of the currency price? Liu Kuan: Prediction: 15,000 US dollars Q: With more and more cloud computing products, how can we stand out? Liu Kuan: Thank you, provide good service and make a difference. Q: Mr. Chen, if the price of the currency will not rise sharply, how can you convince customers to invest? Shouldn’t you continue to recharge everyone’s faith? Chen Lei: Our customers are mainly divided into two categories, one is manufacturers and the other is institutional investors. We do have a risk control mechanism designed for institutional investors. The design of the mechanism is based on data such as currency prices, computing power, chip shipment expectations, and industry electricity price averages. The implementation of the mechanism is composed of mining farm investment transfer, mining machine leverage, currency price hedging, and risk-free appreciation in the secondary market. The overall goal is to protect principal and fixed income under different currency price fluctuations, and on this premise, seek two selling cycles each year. If it is a pure custody user, we will do a good job of screening in the early stage to ensure that when the currency price of his machine falls, the lowest electricity price we can provide can also guarantee the customer's interests. That's about it. In addition, institutional investors have very high requirements for compliance. We have also done a lot of work in finance, law and taxation, and have a complete public connection entry and exit channel. That's basically it. It will take a long time to explain in detail, so I won't expand on it. Q: It is said that there are certain risks in investing in this halving, so have you invested? Pan Yu: If you have investments, take out 20% of your controllable capital to buy digital assets, Bitcoin or other mainstream currencies, or cloud computing products. Question: Mr. Pan, why is the flood season so difficult this year? Pan Yu: I predict the investment attraction problem during the Fengshui period this year. The number of mines under construction has been increasing, and the existing number of machines is not enough to fill the load during the Fengshui period, so I choose to retain some S9 machines in case of emergency. Q: What is the average annual price of thermal power at Yunling Venture Capital? How much load is there? Da Jun: The current average price is 0.38. The new mine was powered on before the New Year, but the load has been fully booked. Zhang Yuan: At the end of the event, Jun Ge, can you give us a summary? Da Jun: To sum up, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the overall mining industry is limited, and it has not had a huge impact on other physical industries. For the existing stock of mining machines, the mining farms will have a relatively stable development period before the computing power is halved in May. Please cherish it! Take good protection and defeat the epidemic. We will win!!! The first episode of "Coin Mining News" has been successfully concluded. We would like to thank all the strategic cooperation media: Babbitt, Shilian Finance, Lieyun Finance, Bitcoin Home, Bitang International, BITCOIN86, Mine Vision, Chain World, Caiyun Bit, Milin Finance, and FN.COM for their strong support for this event. |
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