A full review of the first episode of AntPool Live Broadcast - Halving x Bull Market x Dark Horse

On February 19, Tian Xin, co-founder of Ant Pool, Fan Xiaojun, head of Ant Miner sales, Zhang Yuan, co-founder of Wabi.com, Chen Lei, founder of BitBlueWhale, and Wang Ruixi of Hufu Exchange, four big names, held the first online live broadcast event of Ant Pool with the theme of "Halving X Bull Market X Dark Horse".

The following is a full review

Tian Xin

Happy New Year, everyone. Thank you for participating in the first online event held by Ant Pool [Ant Pool News Broadcast]. I am Tian Xin, co-founder of Ant Pool. Ant Pool was founded with Xu Lingchao in 2014. Ant Pool is the second mining pool in China. It mainly serves the mining field of the "mining circle" and provides mining services to miners. It currently supports more than 20 different mining services. Ant Pool has been established for seven years, and it is also my seventh year in the blockchain industry. Recently, Ant Pool launched the "machine gun pool" business, which increased the income of miners by more than 6%, and has received widespread praise from everyone. Friends who are interested can add Xiaoxiannv WeChat: lhj900410. Reply to machine gun pool to get a preferential experience.

Tian Xin

In the first month of 2020, black swans continued to appear. First, there was the war between the United States and Iran, and then the new coronavirus that attracted the attention of people all over the world. The stock market was miserable. Unlike the stock market reaction, cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin continued to rise on this day.

Bitcoin halving is an important catalyst for driving Bitcoin into a new round of bull market. In fact, before each halving, Bitcoin often has a new round of bull market for at least one year. What impact will Bitcoin halving have on Bitcoin prices, and what will be its price trend?

Tian Xin

As a seven-year-old Bitcoin mining pool, we have always adhered to the principle of user-first. Today, for this upcoming blockchain feast, I believe that miners are also looking forward to this halving. Today, we are honored to invite all the big names to recharge your faith and discuss with us the topic of the third Bitcoin halving~ Now, please invite several guests to introduce themselves.

Wang RuixiGood evening, everyone. I am Wang Ruixi, the founder of Hoofu. I entered the cryptocurrency industry in 2013 and have been here for 7 years. I have witnessed the ups and downs of the new industry. Currently, I am focusing on the industry's basic services [wallets] and the industry's high-demand [trading] business. Today I would like to share with you some of my recent experiences, and you are welcome to learn and discuss together.

Chen Lei

Hello everyone, I am Chen Lei, the founder of BitBlueWhale. We are a domestic team that focuses on the entire digital mining industry chain services. We have mines in Northwest China, Southwest China and Kazakhstan, providing professional mining services and other industry chain services to manufacturers, institutional investors, high-net-worth investors, etc. I personally also serve as the Secretary-General of the Peking University Blockchain Club, doing research on the blockchain industry ecology. Thank you!

Zhang Yuan

Hello everyone, thank you Mr. Tian for inviting me. I am Zhang Yuan, the editor-in-chief and co-founder of Wabi.com. I am very happy to meet you all at the Ant Pool Live. Let me briefly introduce Wabi.com. We were founded in 2013 and are the earliest one-stop comprehensive mining service platform in China that focuses on digital currency. The original team of Wabi.com are all programmers, so we are better at using technical solutions to solve user needs. For example, our miner calculator and other practical tools are very popular among miners. I hope to grow together with the majority of miners. Thank you.

Fan Xiaojun

Hello everyone, I am Fan Xiaojun, I joined Bitmain in 2013 and have been engaged in sales ever since. I am very happy to share with you today.

The Bitmain you are familiar with is back in 2019. 2020 is a year of opportunities and challenges. We uphold the customer-centric service philosophy and continue to create top mining machine products.

Tian Xin

As Bitcoin halving approaches, Bitcoin's computing power has also reached a new high. More and more people are participating in mining, and the difficulty of mining is getting higher and higher. As a mining pool, maximizing the miners' income is fundamental. Recently, Ant Mining Pool launched a 0-fee activity for the machine gun pool. In order to provide users with mining income, how should old miners plan for Ant Mining Machines as the halving approaches? At the same time, can new miners enter the market? Please ask Mr. Chen and Mr. Fan to answer our questions.

Chen Lei

This is a topic about risk and return expectations. Let's first analyze the current situation. BTC has shown the characteristics of consolidating its dominant position, slowing volatility, and increasing activity. Under this premise, we are about to face the historical node of BTC production halving and the simultaneous arrival of the transition from high to low.

The previous generation of mining machines represented by S9 will continue to exit the market. Some mining machines may remain in some areas in the southwest due to low electricity costs and no pressure to recover costs. But in general, the mining machine market will be upgraded this year, and the main ASIC chips will enter the single-digit era at the nano level.

The production capacity of new mining machines this year will be limited by the cash flow strategies of upstream chip manufacturers and mining machine manufacturers. I believe that the performance of new mining machines developed by major manufacturers will not change qualitatively, and the delivery time will be delayed. The production capacity that chip manufacturers can provide is also variable, so the current high-computing power machines are sufficient to smoothly survive the halving period. The current high-computing power machines are still very cost-effective.

Regarding the entry strategy to deal with risks, the biggest risk in the mining industry is that the income is heavily dependent on the BTC market. There are not many hedging tools in the secondary market in the past, and the profit is not high enough to offset the risk expectations. If you buy machines at a high price and do not have the advantage of cheap electricity, there will be risks. We serve many institutional clients, and the risk preference is generally conservative. When designing investment strategies and deployment plans, we must consider whether the risk exposure can be closed.

After many rounds of baptism since 2017, I believe that new miners, that is, institutional funds, will be more mature and fully prepared when they enter the market, and will use a variety of tools to implement it. Manufacturers' sales will sink further, and the traditional channels of mining machines will be squeezed. Institutional investors will take the initiative to increase the proportion of upstream investment to control entry costs and operating costs. More miners will be mine investors themselves, and there will be more and more financial instruments, and derivative financial products will become more and more abundant. The boundary between the currency circle and the mining circle will be more blurred. Therefore, it is also recommended that you do not just follow the past linear thinking and single calculation of returns, but consider more the coordinated use of leverage and hedging tools, and reasonably allocate entry timing and entry funds.

Fan Xiaojun

Hoarding coins is my advice to my miner friends. In fact, it means hoarding mining machines. Buying mining machines is actually buying future coins at a relatively low price. In 2020, various industries faced a sudden impact from the epidemic, which caused a great impact, and mining machine manufacturers were no exception.

In 2019, we were discussing a question: what is the production capacity of mining machines in 2020, and how much will the total network computing power increase? In fact, the essence of the problem is how much production capacity Samsung and TSMC can supply to the virtual currency industry. This year, the 5G industry has exploded, and there are not many chips left for our industry. In addition, the impact of the epidemic,

The production capacity in 2020 is very limited. Therefore, miners should keep the mining machines they have. At present, our company's production capacity before March has been sold out, and now we are selling machines for April. Welcome to consult and buy. When choosing a model, should customers buy a machine with a higher S9 J/T or a machine with a lower S17+ J/T?

There are some customers in the market who are buying S9 and S9k in large quantities. Let's analyze it.

After the halving, we can make the following assumption: the production capacity of mining machines is limited, so the growth of the computing power of the entire network will be very slow. Under the condition that the difficulty, currency price, and electricity cost remain basically unchanged, the total computing power of machines with high J/T will decrease due to the halving.

From the perspective of mining, if the S9 mining machine is used for mining now, it can basically recover most of the profits before the halving. In addition, the flood season will come immediately after the halving, and the electricity cost can be reduced. It is undoubtedly a good product for investment.

Customers who buy S17+ and T17+ are doing long-term mining. This type of machine has a high safety margin and a relatively low J/T ratio, which means that the proportion of electricity costs is also low, and the ability to resist risks is relatively strong. After the halving, assuming that the price of the currency remains unchanged or is more pessimistic, the price of the currency will not fall below the shutdown line. For new friends, if you are ready, you can enter the market at any time. It is never too late to mine.

Tian Xin

In addition to the hot topic of halving, platform coins are also a hot topic among everyone. What do you think of the "rebound" of platform coins? Mr. Zhang Yuan and Mr. Wang Ruixi will answer for us.

Zhang Yuan

I think the counterattack of platform coins is closely related to the ups and downs of the overall market. The trend of platform coins depends largely on the endorsement of the platform's profitability. In other words, when the platform business is good, the attached value of the platform coin will naturally rise accordingly.

Secondly, the platform currency is constantly creating its own scarcity, such as the mechanism of never issuing more and the mechanism of repurchase and destruction, which ensure the scarcity of the platform currency. A basic view of Western economics is that the value of a commodity is determined by its usefulness and scarcity. Usefulness determines whether a commodity is valuable, while scarcity determines how much the commodity is worth.

Needless to say, the platform currency has been closely linked to application scenarios, dividends and other platform privileges since its birth. Let's talk about scarcity. This is probably the consensus of all Bitcoin supporters. "Scarcity makes things valuable" is the simple understanding and summary of the ancient Chinese that "scarcity is an important factor affecting the value of goods".

In addition, as the scale of platform users continues to grow, the rise of platform coins that have brought their own traffic and application scenarios since their birth, I don’t think this can be considered a "reversal", because they were not grassroots when they were born, at most they deserved the name,

Wang [email protected]​​

In a sense, the OKEx platform led the craze for platform coins and destroyed 700 million uncirculated OKBs of the foundation.

The test network and DEX were launched simultaneously, which further increased the value of the platform and the price of the platform currency, leading to a comprehensive increase in the price of platform currencies from first-tier to second-tier and third-tier platforms.

The timing of this platform coin market is very clever, and it can even be said that it is in line with public expectations. In view of the so-called "rotation" concept that has long existed in the currency circle, after the halving currencies and mainstream currencies have completed their performances, hot money also urgently needs new themes as a destination. At this time, OKEX’s announcement is not ingenious. It was the first to start deflation and defeated the other two platforms, implicitly making a gesture of industry leadership. It is a marketing case worth learning.

Back to the platform currency itself, because the platform currency of the trading platform has a strong positive correlation with the platform's revenue, as one of the very few currencies in the circle that can have the attribute of "landing", compared with the illusory public chain projects or the less hyped copycat currencies, the investment logic of the platform currency is clear and clear, and it is also well-known.

In the succession of trading platforms, the price of platform coins is always the first to be affected. Therefore, I believe that the counterattack of platform coins in this round is not only the market's recognition and reward for excellent platforms, but also represents the optimism of many investors about the bull market in the future.

Huobi is relatively conservative in terms of platform coins and has not yet launched a platform coin. We are also thinking and discussing whether we need a platform coin. In any case, the only winning factor for the platform is the healthy and sustainable development of the platform's business.

Tian Xin

Many forces want to enter the mining industry through mining pools or cloud computing power, such as Huobi OK Binance, etc. Even POS requires staking. What do you think of this form?

Wang Ruixi

Mining is one of the oldest businesses in the blockchain industry. From participating in sales in the early days of the KaedCat mining machine team, to directly operating our own mining farms, to later acquiring Hash Power, to today's Hufu Mining, we have been witnessing the ups and downs of the mining industry. It can be said that mining-related industries are both the foundation of the industry and the soil for its development.

Therefore, we can see that as the market warms up, more and more forces are trying to enter the mining circle, more trading platform names have appeared in the top mining pools, and Bitcoin's computing power has also reached a historical high.

It can be said that this development is very consistent with economic laws. When the platform has established a firm foothold in the original field, it will naturally use its own capital or operational advantages to launch related mining pool services (PoW, PoS). This is also a new battlefield opened up outside of "trading".

The different consensus mechanisms of many currencies also provide the possibility for the emergence of various mining pools.

When you are developing yourself, you should first find a "base" of your own. You may not be able to do well what a large platform can do. Develop according to your own situation, be stable, and take it step by step.

Chen Lei

When I attended another event last week, I also mentioned that cloud computing power will enter a period of global competition. Why is cloud computing power valued by all parties? I think there are probably several reasons: 1. Cloud computing power is a financial product in structure, with a derivative basis, seamlessly running from the primary market (production) to the secondary market (trading, lending, and financial management). It is highly playable and can design a variety of products to suit different groups of people. It is also quite confusing and can be done by both good and bad people. Under the cover of the primary market, it is convenient for various leverages and models to intervene. Whether it is traditional finance, currency circle, or mining circle, there are product opportunities of their own;

2. Cloud computing power is an Internet product in form, with a low threshold for establishment. The design structure of cloud computing power products is simple, with fewer embedded elements, and there are no standards and regulations for data interfaces. Whether it is an Internet team outside the industry, a team in the primary and secondary markets of digital currency, or a general team in the mining industry, it is very easy to get started. If you have goods in your hands, you can sell them directly. If you don’t have goods in your hands, you can switch from wholesale to retail. As long as you think you have certain channel capabilities, you can quickly enter the market;

3. Cloud computing power is essentially a traffic entrance. Forces outside the industry, mining industry chain giants, exchange giants, and global computing power customer channel giants will engage in complex and entangled confrontations in the field of cloud computing power. All parties will enter with different products for different purposes, but in the end they are all to guard the traffic entrance and open the traffic increase valve. Among them, domestic small and medium-sized players who conduct market activities based on vertical communities, offline sales, and tiered sales are not the main battlefield. I personally believe that overseas traffic is the top priority. The final offensive and defensive battle of all parties must be here. This is an important link for competitors to open up and swallow up the global industrial chain as the industry concentration further increases.

Fan Xiaojun

I personally understand that most staking mining, in essence, sacrifices the liquidity of the currency in exchange for a certain amount of currency holding income. I personally suggest that everyone consider a certain proportion of split warehouses. If your coins are locked when the market comes, it will be embarrassing.

Zhang Yuan

It is obvious that many forces have entered the mining industry, but I personally think that the most intense competition is not in mining pools, but in cloud computing. We just did a live broadcast a few days ago. The four guests, whether they were from the mining industry or venture capital funds, all laid out cloud computing business.

To borrow what Mr. Chen Lei said a few days ago: "As profits in the mining industry decline, small and medium-sized players have basically withdrawn from the stage." The lowest threshold for retail investors to participate in mining is to buy compliant and guaranteed cloud computing products. Everyone has seen this direction.

For mining companies with their own mines and physical mining machines, the feasibility and risk of building a cloud computing product is much smaller than building a mining pool. After all, mining pools will face the huge test brought by halving. In addition, from a technical point of view, the competition among mining pools is not limited to which one has the lower fee, but begins to compete in comprehensive strength: fee, security, and the currently popular computing power hedging technology that can support the machine gun pool. It can be said that mining pools still have certain technical barriers.

Tian Xin

The price of Bitcoin broke through 10,000 a few days ago. What do you think of the Bitcoin market this year? Does it mean that the halving bull market has begun?

Chen Lei

My view on BTC is consistent. The possibility of a sharp rise is not that high.

If there were no sporadic events such as the Sino-US trade dispute, the US-Iran Middle East conflict, and the Chinese epidemic, the possibility of a BTC market would be lower. I don’t think it is a halving market now, and it has nothing to do with halving. Considering the consistent unfriendly attitude of major economies towards digital currency transactions, the various restrictions on institutional funds entering the pipeline, and the pressure of derivatives in the trading market, I believe that the currency price will continue to remain around 10,000, and it will be difficult to break through the historical high.

Of course, there have been rumors that there are several forces that have the ability to manipulate the market, I can only laugh, I don't understand that world,

In many public occasions in the past, including two live broadcasts recently, every time I expressed this view, BTC would soon fall. Haha, I am very nervous to answer this kind of question now, and I always hope that my prediction is wrong.

Zhang Yuan

We just discussed this issue a few days ago. Like Mr. Chen Lei, I am a rational person on this issue, but it does not mean that I am not optimistic about Bitcoin in the long run. Otherwise, why are we in this industry? It’s just that I think the bull market will not be that fast, and the current fluctuations are not caused by the halving alone.

And according to the rules of the previous two halvings, there will be a certain amount of room for correction one month before the halving. As for the trend after the halving, I think it will not reach the previous historical height, and it should be difficult to break through 20,000 US dollars in the short term. This is purely a personal opinion and does not constitute an investment advice. Thank you.

Fan Xiaojun

My personal view on the market is still very simple, and I am bullish in the long run. I suggest that everyone hold on to the coins and the mining machines.

1. Mining machines are the currency of the future.

2From this epidemic, many industries have been greatly affected, but our miner friends have been relatively less affected, because as long as the mining machines are running, the income is stable.

Wang Ruixi

When I shared at DeepChain Finance at the end of last year, I also said that we might have reached the dark stage before dawn, and 2020 will be bitter before sweet.

It’s only been two months since the beginning of 2020, and many black swan events have already occurred from China to the world. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has started to rise against the trend. As we all know, many characteristics of Bitcoin itself naturally have some risk-averse properties, which is why it was once called "digital gold". Many hodlers would say "long Bitcoin short the world". Now that the world is facing many challenges, holding Bitcoin has become a good choice.

Bitcoin is not just a currency, it is also a revolution in finance. It is difficult for most people to change their mindset. So we should not care about the price increase of Bitcoin, but whether we can witness this revolution together.

New industries are changing very quickly. Bitcoin is supported by our group of people who believe, persist and work hard. This behavior shows our optimism and support for BTC. Our efforts are to long Bitcoin. In recent exchanges with many friends, I can also feel that the atmosphere is obviously different from last year. This positive atmosphere makes me look forward to this year's industry.

Tian Xin

The following is the question and answer session

Netizens asked: Is it better to buy coins or to buy mining machines?

(According to the audio)

Chen Lei

I think this question is an old one. We often say that the biggest danger of buying coins is that you may not be able to hold on to them. I have seen many people who really cannot hold on to coins after buying them, whether they fall or rise. This alone may make us think about whether we really want to buy coins, because if we buy coins just for financial management, we cannot just buy coins, but should also consider more financial tools to make ourselves hold on to them.

Why are mining machines better? It is not just because we are doing this that we must say that buying mining machines is good for mining. What is the experience of the industry in the past two or three years? Although we cannot completely close all the risk exposure brought by the heavy asset investment of mining, if we can control the cost at the time of entry, and do not rush too much and do not chase the rise too much, according to my experience, I think the entire industry has at least two windows every year, where you can keep the coins and sell the machines, or upgrade the machines, just mining, it is not a linear action of mining all the time. When we buy mining machines, it is equivalent to us getting a tool with many changes and flexibility. This tool can give us the opportunity to choose multiple times in a long period of one or even two years. Of course, there are risks in this, but if you handle it well, you may have multiple opportunities to hoard coins, sell machines, or replace machines. Then in addition to the traditional mining income we say, there are actually many opportunities for income. This part of the income is definitely much higher than just hoarding coins!

Fan Xiaojun

Personally, I prefer to buy mining machines! Mining machines will produce every day, and then you can keep them. Even if you don’t have coins now, they will still produce in the future. Buying coins also has its advantages! The advantage is that the retention rate is high! But can you keep the coins? Didn’t Jiang Zhuoer say that it is harder to keep coins than to be widowed? If you yourself are experiencing a surge in the price of coins, doubling, tripling, or 100 times, can you still keep it? So if you buy a few hundred P mining machines or a few hundred million mining machines and leave them there! If you don’t sell your mining machines, your future coins will still be produced, so it is better to buy mining machines.

Zhang Yuan

Let me analyze this question. I think whether to buy coins or mining machines depends on personal investment risk preference. Buying coins is more flexible. You can make fixed investments or do swing trading! But as Mr. Chen said, it is not easy to hold on!

Wang Ruixi

You can buy coins and mining machines at the same time, half for coins and half for mining machines, this will solve most of the problems. If you choose, look at your own advantages. Different people have different choices. People who come from the industrial sector like to buy mining machines regardless of how much money they have.

Tian Xin

In fact, when it comes to buying coins or investing in mining machines, you must look at the scale of your investment, as well as the size of your funds and the length of time of your investment. For example, when buying coins, do you look at the long term or the short term! And just like a friend in the group just said that he bought a small currency, it rose very quickly! But this small currency also fell very quickly, it soared and it plummeted, and its funds fluctuated greatly! You may be very happy when it rises, but you may not be able to bear it when it falls! So it is recommended that if you hold coins, you should hold mainstream currencies! For example, BTC, BCH, etc., and try to choose mining machines with low power consumption and high computing power, such as Ant S17, etc.

Tian Xin

Thank you all for sharing your valuable information. Recently, not only the halving topic has been on our minds, but the Wuhan epidemic is also something that we have been concerned about. We must take good protection during this special period. Let us unite as one, take scientific measures to prevent and control the epidemic, and cheer for Wuhan and China~

Thank you all for your wonderful sharing, and thank you to my friends for your participation. I hope everyone can seize the opportunity in this halving and achieve financial freedom as soon as possible.

(over)