Hello, fellow miners and coin lovers, I am Zhang Yuan, editor-in-chief of CoinWalker. Welcome to the sixth episode of CoinWalker News. Just yesterday, some people in our live group were discussing how many short orders were opened. This pullback made some people feel a little overwhelmed, but it rose again today. Today, we invited several big guys who are used to the ups and downs of the market to talk with you about the opportunities and challenges in the halving pullback. Let us welcome: Head of Bitmain Asia Pacific: Fan Xiaojun Guihua Technology Founder: Xiao Guihua Founder of Xiangyunxiang Mining: Meng Feiyun He Bing, co-founder of Sichuan Xueryou Network Technology Today's media observer is Xiao Linglong, co-founder of Shenyun Finance. In the following AMA session, Linglong will represent the media supporting this event: Golden Finance, Lieyun Finance, Liandede, Star World, Shenlian Finance, Babbitt, Mining Vision, Bitang International, Changqing Finance, Pica Finance, Bitao, Evangelism Finance, Bitcoin Home, Milin Finance, Mokr Headlines, Chain World, Chain Finance, FN.COM, Miyou Finance, Bipu, Qun TV, Shilian Finance, Bolian Finance, Niubi Circle, Bibi NEWS, Ostrich Blockchain, Shenyun Finance, BITCOIN86, Gyro Finance, Gyro Q&A, Niushi Finance, Beibo, Zhongben Finance, Block Network, and ask questions to the guests. Now friends in the group are muted. After the interview, we will leave free Q&A time for everyone. As usual, please introduce yourselves first. Fan Xiaojun Hello everyone, my name is Fan Xiaojun. I joined Bitmain in 2013 and have been engaged in sales work ever since. I am very happy to share with you today. The Bitmain you are familiar with in 2019 is back. 2020 is a year of opportunities and challenges. We uphold the customer-centric service concept and continue to create top mining machine products. Xiao Guihua Hello everyone. I am the founder of Guihua Technology. I entered this industry in 2014. I am very happy that Miss Digging Coins invited me to share with you today. Meng Feiyun Hello everyone, I am Meng Feiyun, a miner in 2018. I am mainly engaged in mining and mine layout, power resources, and Bitcoin evangelism. In my opinion, miners must have their own mines. If there are miners who want to build their own mines but don’t have power resources, you can contact me. You can build them yourself or cooperate with me. You can add me on WeChat to discuss in detail. I am very happy to share some things here. Thank you for listening! He Bing I am a retail miner who entered the industry in May 2016. So far, I have completed the industrial transformation from a retail investor to a mining farm operator and then to a cloud computing platform. Our team has been committed to building a standardized mining farm management system in the industry since its establishment. From 2017 to the end of 2019, we completed the construction of a mining farm with a total installed capacity of 19W kilowatts. The XDL cloud computing power trading platform, which was prepared in May 2019, will also be launched in the near future. In May 2019, we built a nearly 2,000-square-meter comprehensive mining machine after-sales service center in Taojia Industrial Park, Chongqing, to respond 24/7 and quickly solve the basic services and maintenance and upgrade services for the majority of users. I would like to thank the mining website and all media friends, and look forward to working with all partners in the industry to build a more benign ecosystem! Thank you all! Zhang Yuan Although we know that there were pullbacks before the previous halvings, many big names have said that this year's halving is different from the previous two. I would like to ask several guests, will this halving market completely repeat the historical fluctuation trajectory? Mr. Fan, please tell us first Fan Xiaojun I feel like this sentence is actually asking whether the price of the currency will rise after the halving. People always say that history is always surprisingly similar. In fact, people have many expectations for the price of the currency. As for the price of the currency, I have always been bullish in the long term. After so many ups and downs, the price of the currency is actually just a number. I also hope that everyone will not care about the temporary rise and fall of the price of the currency. If you also firmly believe in Bitcoin, then hold on to the currency in your hands and wait for the outbreak of the next round of bull market. Another point is to keep your own mining machines and not sell them at a low price. I have actually shared my views on this point in many places. 1. The overall mining machine production capacity in 2020 is limited. (The chip supply is limited) 2. The overall number of newly produced mining machines will decrease. 3. The growth of the total network computing power will be much lower than expected. 4. When the difficulty, coin price and electricity cost remain relatively constant, the total computing power of mining machines with high J/T will decrease after halving. 5. The value of existing mining machines in the market will increase. Our company is currently selling April futures S17+ and T17+. Welcome to consult and purchase. Xiao Guihua This is the second time I have experienced halving since I entered the industry. I remember the last halving very clearly. Market rumors said that the price of the currency would rise sharply after the halving, so it started to rise from 1,300 yuan in early 2016 to more than 30,000 yuan in April. At that time, I thought that the total amount of the currency would decrease after the halving, and the supply and demand would decrease, so the price of the currency would definitely rise all the way, but in fact, the price of the currency began to fall after the halving. Then in the next few years, the price of the currency experienced several sharp rises and falls. Therefore, the current Bitcoin ecosystem is mainly a profit-making means of the capital market. With the development of Bitcoin and the world's understanding of Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin has gradually tended to change rationally. Therefore, with the help of various news, the increase will definitely be much smaller. I personally believe that the price of the currency will not follow the previous historical trajectory. This year's bull market is more due to the fact that the financial strength of the participants is far greater than the volume of the last halving, but the price of mining machines depends on the profit ratio under any market conditions. Halving is followed by cheap flood electricity. Therefore, whether it will fall sharply or not, everyone should wait and see. Meng Feiyun I feel that it is entirely possible to repeat the historical trajectory, with the price of the coin halved and the mining cost of miners doubled. However, there are less than three months before the halving. Market fluctuations depend on market supply and demand. As far as I know, the inventory of major manufacturers is insufficient. Assuming that the price of the coin will rise sharply after the halving, the assets of miners who are now deploying mining machines will all double. Risks and profits will always coexist. According to the historical trajectory and calculations in the past, it will eventually rise above the highest price of around US$13,500 last year. Whether it will rise directly, or rise to the pressure level and then fall back, and fluctuate for a few months before rising again, it depends entirely on the game between the long and short sides. At present, the general direction is upward. I think the market will rise. The specific influencing factors are different every year, so the specific trend will also be different. He Bing I am honored to share and exchange with you the opportunities and challenges brought by this year's BTC halving. I entered the industry in May 2016. In the second month after I entered the industry, BTC halved. The reward for each block was halved from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. This year, around May 2020, BTC will usher in another round of halving, and the reward for each block will be reduced to 6.25 BTC. Compared with the previous halving year, the price of BTC has been in an overall upward gradient state in the past four years, including the highest point of 19,000.00 in 2017, and then fell to 3,100 US dollars on December 1, 2018. Miners and investors have experienced the roller coaster ride during this period. The topic we are discussing today is halving. I personally think that there is a certain correlation between mining and market prices. This correlation should include but is not limited to supply and demand balance and capital game. Since the halving in 2016, a slow bull market has gradually begun, which has also led to a resonance in the entire digital currency mining. The industrial chain has taken root in the consensus, including exchanges, capital institutions, mining machine manufacturers and mining service institutions, and has also formed a strong response to wealth opportunities. The balance of supply and demand is gradually forming a tug-of-war, and the price is increasing day by day. Until today, we see that Bitcoin has a trillion-dollar market value. From the perspective of supply and demand balance, it is difficult to align the output of this halving with the market. We are more optimistic about the long-term benefits and the start of another high point of the slow bull market. From 2016 to today, about 3 million BTC have been mined in the entire network. From the current daily circulation of the entire network, the daily mining volume after halving should not be enough to cause an imbalance in the circulation of transactions in a short period of time. We believe that after the financial ecology based on the BTC chain is formed, it will gradually climb to a historical height that we expect. Zhang Yuan The analyses of several guests are quite rational. There is also a voice in the market that some people questioned that the correction last week was due to the halving market being overdrawn and over-consumed in advance. What do you think? Mr. Xiao will first tell you Xiao Guihua There are too many factors that affect the price of Bitcoin, including the stock market, financial industry, policy news, etc. Since the beginning of the year, the price of Bitcoin has remained at around 55,000. As the saying goes, a speculative product will fall after rising for a long time, and will rise after falling for a long time. This is an inevitable trend. Meng Feiyun On the one hand: China is the world's second largest economy. The early epidemic affected many traditional companies and caused them to completely shut down, affecting the entire financial market and causing a chain reaction. Stock markets around the world plummeted, which helped the market rise. At present, the epidemic has been effectively controlled, traditional industries have gradually recovered, and the stock market has shown signs of recovery. Some capital has returned to the traditional capital market again; on the other hand: 11000-13000 is a resistance range. It started to pull back near the resistance level a few days ago. It is a technical pullback. I believe that the approaching halving has increased people's bullish expectations, but the impact of the halving expectations is still relatively limited. He Bing In the period before and after the expected halving, we did take another roller coaster ride. The BTC price fluctuated by more than $1,000 in the two months before and after. The expectation of the halving is considered to be a relatively positive consensus in the industry, showing a relatively strong rise. At the same time, considering that the BTC price is also subject to the influence of factors such as industry security events, global economy, policies and regulations, and capital markets, if there is a correction under negative conditions, it is normal for funds to avoid risks. After the halving, we have more faith in the long-term price upward trend. Zhang Yuan Several experienced people are really pessimistic about the rise and fall of the market. For miners, in addition to holding on to the existing coins and mining machines, what new opportunities will there be to get rich this year? Can the guests give some suggestions? Mr. Fan, please talk first Fan Xiaojun Use coins to generate coins, and use coins to buy mining machines. 1. Why do you borrow money instead of selling your coins when you are using them to buy mining machines? Because most customers are optimistic about the long-term price of coins and the benefits of mining. As long as the price of coins can outperform the interest, this operation is valuable. Years of experience in the cryptocurrency industry has taught me that you cannot sell coins because you cannot buy them back if you sell them. Many platforms can provide currency lending, such as matrix. When borrowing, you must reserve a sufficient proportion of margin to prevent liquidation in extreme situations. 2. Use mining machines as collateral for loans. To buy mining machines, the mining machines in the hands of miners are also valuable. For general mining machine collateral, the mining machines need to be placed in the mine designated by the lender, or the miners’ own credit endorsement can also be used. However, there are not many platforms that support mining machine loans, because the borrower has to consider the risks. 3. Mining machines purchased through the above two methods need to be hedged. Hedging is the use of financial instruments such as futures and options to lock in a portion of profits and minimize the risk of mining. Depending on your own risk preference, you can choose partial hedging or full hedging. However, many people are not very good at this aspect. Everyone has their own specialties and they learn things at different times. It is recommended that clients who are not particularly knowledgeable can hand it over to a reliable team to do this, and you only need to pay a certain percentage of the profit. 4. You can use the coins you have on hand to arbitrage, do quantitative or other financial products. The above-mentioned method must be done by a reliable company with a high credit rating to prevent the other party from running away with your coins. I personally recommend Matrixport, a Singaporean financial services agency. Xiao Guihua I am also a miner. My experience over the years has taught me that when big market fluctuations come, staying still is the best choice. Another way for miners to get rich this year is to provide services to big capital. Many central enterprises and state-owned enterprises have entered our industry this year, but they are bound to encounter many problems. Old miners can use their accumulated experience and resources to realize them. The day before yesterday, I was in Chengdu, and someone bid for Fengshui Electric Power 0.165 in Sichuan. All reliable and safe resources are always a good way to get rich. Meng Feiyun How do miners hold onto their coins and mining machines? I feel that everyone can use many financial products in the market. This requires everyone to work hard to learn some financial methods to achieve revenue growth, use mortgage loans, and use low-leverage operations to buy coins or pay electricity bills. We can do some calculations. Miners can do some hedging when the coin price is very good. Holding onto coins is harder than being a widow. We can hold onto our coins without affecting our normal lives, or we can use financial products such as coin loans to hold onto our mining machines and coins. In the first half of 2017, my friends who held onto their mining machines all doubled their money by the end of 2017. They held onto their mining machines for several months to get coins, and the mining machines also appreciated in value. This year, we cannot rule out the possibility of these things happening. He Bing The division of the digital currency industry chain is very clear. We in the mining circle should always pay attention to the output-return ratio and payback period of the mining machines in our hands. Mining friends need to consider optimizing the number of existing mining machines before and after the halving and eliminate models with high energy consumption ratio as much as possible. From a long-term perspective, purchasing new low-energy consumption and high-computing power machines is suitable for long-term investment. In the face of a big market, choosing appropriate resource integration can maximize the use of the chips in your hands, and can also achieve greater wealth growth when a big market comes! Thank you to the guests for sharing their tips on how to get rich. Next, Xiao Linglong, co-founder of Shenyun Finance, will continue to ask questions on behalf of the major media. Zhang Yuan There are currently two voices in the market, believing that in addition to bringing a bull market, halving will also bring some challenges to the industry. Can the guests analyze from their respective perspectives what challenges will be faced this year and how will everyone deal with them? Xiao Guihua The challenges that we will face in 2020 already existed in 2019, and the pressure on me personally is very great. Because I am an individual, I have been an accountant in a company, a small miner, a mining company, a mine owner, and even a mining machine manufacturer. I have almost broken the limit of my personal ability. I have no experience in the financial field or the Internet field. More and more excellent people are participating in the industry, and the entire industry is developing rapidly. If you don’t change your thinking quickly, it will be difficult to adapt to this change. However, it is even more difficult for execution to keep up with thinking. For me, if I want to continue to survive in this industry, the challenge is very great. My current way of dealing with it is to hope to have an excellent technical team and occupy my own place in this industry through the Internet. Meng Feiyun The Bitcoin halving affects the rewards miners receive from mining, and historically has had positive consequences for the price of Bitcoin over the long term. Only 21 million Bitcoins can be mined, and the halving is intended to prevent inflation. Unlike central banks, Bitcoin is limited in total, and this nature is more like gold than currency. Currently, each block of the blockchain can earn 12.5 Bitcoins, and after the halving in 2020, it will become 6.25 Bitcoins. The halving will affect the benefits of miners, because miners have high computing costs, such as electricity, computing power, etc., and if the reward is halved, the benefits of miners will decrease. When the block reward is halved, some users may calculate that their mining activities will no longer be profitable due to costs such as electricity and hardware. If the price of Bitcoin does not rise to compensate, some users may stop mining altogether, thereby reducing the processing power in the network. Whatever happens, it should not affect the speed of mining blocks, because the software automatically adjusts the difficulty of verifying transactions to maintain a steady rate. Therefore, every time Bitcoin is halved, the consequences will have a great impact on the price of Bitcoin. What will be the consequence of this halving? Investors are also speculating. However, according to the previous halvings, the halving of Bitcoin will be a process of Bitcoin price soaring. As for the impact afterwards, it is still unknown, because the price of Bitcoin often gives us many surprises! What will be the situation of Bitcoin after 2020? I feel that I am still bullish. How much it will rise depends on what investors think of Bitcoin and how much it will rise. I feel that the bull market should come soon, and this speed is faster than you can imagine. In my personal opinion, larger miners should have their own mines. By building our own mines, we can reduce electricity costs and thus reduce risks. He Bing Whether it is a bull market or a slow bull market brought about by the BTC halving, it is a positive side to the current environment. This flag of the mining circle will also set sail to a broader blue ocean. The development of the industry in recent years is inseparable from the efforts of many backbone companies in the industry. They pay more attention to the healthy development of the big industry. From the past few years, the digital currency mining group was still in a state of horizontal growth to the current orderly development, positive competition, and formulation of standardized rules, from small users to large users, from small enterprises to large enterprises. Our industry is undergoing the development of the times and policy innovation step by step. The rapid update and iteration of the industry has injected more cardiac stimulants into the market and brought more development space and ideas. In the industrial transformation, companies that mainly rely on cloud computing leasing and services also occupy an important position in the future market, providing more convenience and convenience for the participation of more new users. As the market price is halved, a wider range of users will participate in the field of digital currency mining, which will bring greater opportunities and challenges to the mining farms. Users are not only looking for electricity now, but more users consider stable and platform-based service mining farms as the first consideration. From the perspective of miners and mine owners, we should consider the industrial innovation of the mining farm, and we should consider reasonable power matching and innovative computer room construction. We should focus on intelligent computing power map sensing and AI management mode, make disaster prevention plans, scientific construction, scientific production, and precise management. We need to solve the standardized operation mode of seamless docking throughout the year. At present, the south is rich in hydropower, but the time is short. The north is rich in electricity resources, but the price is slightly higher than the hydropower price in the south. As a result, the industry has always had a north-south migration mode. This process will cause the user's machine to be damaged too much during the relocation process. As a mining farm, we should consider the actual interests of users and establish a standard chain based on the transportation, racking and debugging of mining machines. In fact, it is also an indispensable link in the mining circle ecosystem, so that the mining machines migrated from north to south can be damaged as little as possible, started early, and put on the rack early. Zhang Yuan For new small-scale users, is it better to start by buying computing power or machines? If buying a machine, which model is more suitable for beginners? Fan Xiaojun The first step in purchasing cloud computing power is to identify a reliable platform; The biggest concern about cloud computing power is whether it is a Ponzi scheme and whether the platform has real computing power. Therefore, how to choose and identify a reliable cloud computing power platform can be considered from multiple dimensions. For example, credit multiples, field visits to mining factories, etc. You can also listen to my recommendations. BitDeer is our cloud computing power partner. If you need to purchase cloud computing power, you can go to BitDeer to purchase it. The second step after risk control considerations is to calculate the benefits. Cloud computing saves customers from the tedious work of finding a site, operating and maintaining the mining machine, and paying electricity bills. Therefore, the electricity bill of the cloud computing platform will be higher than that of normal mining. When purchasing, users need to understand what currency the mining machine mines, the income distribution model of this currency, the difficulty increase, whether it will be halved, and so on. Remember that risk control always comes first. There are three elements in mining: mining machines, electricity, and the Internet. The most important one is electricity resources. If you have suitable electricity resources, you can choose to buy a mining machine and mine. Xiao Guihua For small-scale users who have just entered the market this year, the best choice is to enter the market through a reliable computing power platform, because a reliable computing power platform is very experienced in the entire mining industry. New users often lose some money due to lack of experience or opaque information. The most difficult part of mining is electricity and operation and maintenance. If you are very sure that your electricity and operation and maintenance are not a problem, you must choose your own mining machine. Bitmain Ant brand is the best mining machine in the country. It is impeccable in terms of mining machine performance, mining machine quality, market awareness and customer experience. High-computing power and low-power machines are the first choice. Just calculate the payback period you can accept based on your own electricity costs and capital volume. Meng Feiyun For new small-scale customers who have little experience and are affected by production reduction factors, we recommend customers to buy high-performance mining machines with high computing power, such as Bitmain's "S17+/67T" or "S19pro/110T" and Shenma's m30. First of all, we recommend buying mining machines because mining machines can mine for 2-3 years. The flood season is coming soon. We make a judgment. If there are low-cost electricity resources, customers are advised to buy second-hand models at this time. In this way, the price is low and the return is fast. Miners can buy cross-models according to their own situation. Although the initial cost of cloud computing power is lower, over time, the mining machine income will exceed the purchase of cloud computing power by a lot. In the long run, it is more cost-effective to buy a mining machine with high cost performance. He Bing We still analyze this issue from the perspective of return on investment. Taking the payback period of mining machines as an example, new small-scale users should do a good job of market evaluation and analysis, including the current electricity price combined with the most suitable machine for themselves under the most suitable capital allocation, and take into consideration procurement channels and technical services. This includes the delivery cycle of the machine and the depreciation of the machine on the shelves. There are also certain uncertainties in the commercial links in the middle. Problems in any link may lead to the extension of the mining cycle and thus lose the opportunity to make a profit. The mining industry has evolved from a closed-door development model at the beginning to a modern cooperative model today, and has produced a number of high-quality computing power service companies. If new users do not meet the conditions mentioned above, they can also start by purchasing computing power. Compared with purchasing mining machines, there is no need to consider too many objective factors when purchasing cloud computing power. Zhang Yuan Thank you to the guests for sharing their tips on how to get rich. Next, Xiao Linglong, co-founder of Shenyun Finance, will continue to ask questions on behalf of the major media. Shenzhen Cloud Finance Xiao Linglong There are currently two voices in the market, believing that in addition to bringing a bull market, halving will also bring some challenges to the industry. Can the guests analyze from their respective perspectives what challenges will be faced this year and how will everyone deal with them? Xiao Guihua The challenges that we will face in 2020 already existed in 2019, and the pressure on me personally is very great. Because I am an individual, I have been an accountant in a company, a small miner, and then to a mining company, a mine owner, and even involved in mining machine business. I have almost broken the limit of my personal ability. I have no experience in the financial field or the Internet field. More and more excellent people are participating in the industry, and the entire industry is developing rapidly. If you don’t change your thinking quickly, it will be difficult to adapt to this change. However, it is even more difficult for execution to keep up with thinking. For me, if I want to continue to survive in this industry, the challenge is very great. My current way of dealing with it is to hope to have an excellent technical team and occupy my own place in this industry through the Internet. Meng Feiyun The Bitcoin halving affects the rewards miners receive from Bitcoin and has historically had positive consequences for the price of Bitcoin in the long term. Only 21 million Bitcoins can be mined, and the halving is to prevent inflation. Unlike central banks, Bitcoin has a total limit, which is more like gold than currency. After the halving in 2020, it will become 6.25 Bitcoins. The halving will affect the income of miners, because miners have high computing costs, such as electricity, computing power, etc. If the reward is halved, the income of miners will decrease. Some users may calculate that their mining activities will no longer be profitable due to costs such as electricity and hardware. If the price of Bitcoin does not rise to compensate, some users may stop mining altogether, thereby reducing the processing power in the network. Whatever happens, it should not affect the speed of mining blocks, because the software automatically adjusts the difficulty of verifying transactions to maintain a stable rate. Therefore, every time Bitcoin is halved, the consequence will have a great impact on the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, every time Bitcoin is halved, the consequence will have a great impact on the price of Bitcoin. Investors are also speculating on the consequences of this halving, but based on the experience of the previous halvings, the Bitcoin halving will be a process in which the Bitcoin price will soar. As for the subsequent impact, it is still unknown. What will happen to Bitcoin after 2020? I am still optimistic. How much it will rise depends on investors' views on Bitcoin. I think the bull market will come soon. In my opinion, larger miners should have their own mines. By building our own mines, we can reduce electricity costs and thus reduce risks. Welcome to Sichuan to invest. He Bing Whether it is a bull market or a slow bull market brought about by the BTC halving, it is a positive side to the current environment. This flag of the mining circle will also set sail to a broader blue ocean. The development of the industry in recent years is inseparable from the efforts of many backbone companies in the industry. They pay more attention to the healthy development of the big industry. From the past few years, the digital currency mining group was still in a state of horizontal growth to the current orderly development, positive competition, and the formulation of standardized rules, from small users to large users, from small enterprises to large enterprises, our industry is undergoing the development of the times and policy innovation step by step. The rapid update and iteration of the industry has injected more cardiac stimulants into the market and brought more development space and ideas. In the industrial transformation, companies that mainly provide cloud computing power leasing services also occupy an important position in the future market, providing more convenience and convenience for the participation of more new users and computing power transactions of "C" end users. As the market price is halved, a wider range of users will participate in the field of digital currency mining, which will bring greater opportunities and challenges to the mining farms. Users are now not only looking for electricity, but more users consider stable and platform-based service mining farms as the first consideration. From the perspective of miners and mine owners, the industrial innovation of the mining farm should be considered. Reasonable power matching and innovative computer room construction should be considered, with intelligent computing power map sensing and AI management mode as the main focus. Disaster prevention plans should be made, and scientific construction, scientific production, and precise management should be the problems we as mining farms need to face and solve. At the same time, it is also necessary to solve the standardized operation mode of seamless connection throughout the year. At present, hydropower is abundant in the south, but the time is short. The north is rich in electricity resources but the price is slightly higher than the hydropower price in the south. As a result, the industry has always followed the north-south migration model. This process will cause users' machines to be damaged too much during the relocation process. As a mining farm, we should consider the actual interests of users and establish a standard chain based on the transportation, loading and debugging of mining machines. In fact, it is also an indispensable link in the mining circle ecosystem, so that the mining machines migrated from north to south can be damaged as little as possible, started up early, and put on the shelves early. Free Q&A session Netizens This year is the flood season! How many people with high-computing power mining machines have to move to Sichuan and Yunnan? Meng Feiyun Welcome to Sichuan, our mine is ready for the flood season. Today's AMA ends here. Thanks to Linglong and all the supporting media, and also to the guests for their wonderful sharing and the enthusiastic interaction of the mining friends! See you in the next issue of "Mining Simulcast"! |
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