Bitcoin’s fate

For Bitcoin, its cost is reflected in mining.

As we all know, the block reward of mining = block reward + transfer fee, and the block reward is halved every four years and eventually tends to 0.

When there are block rewards, Bitcoin is actually inflationary at this stage. If you want to keep the price unchanged, you actually need a group of people (called fixed investment groups) to continuously purchase the newly mined block income. In this way, a balance can be achieved.

When the block reward = 0, miners can only rely on transaction fee incentives; at the same time, miners will not lose money in mining.

Therefore, the size of the transaction fee determines (or defines) the scale of the mining ecosystem.

Payments on the Lightning Network are not on the chain, so they have nothing to do with miners.

But now many people regard Bitcoin as digital gold, that is, they value its value storage function more. Since the total amount of Bitcoin remains unchanged (anti-inflation), when the block reward = 0, hoarding coins is an act that has nothing to do with miners.

All costs of Bitcoin are covered by payments and have nothing to do with value storage.

But as a tool for storing value, it is far greater than as a payment tool.

There are some problems with this model.

Intuitive performance is ultimately unsafe.

It has a high value storage and a large market value, but few people pay for it and the handling fee is very low, which will lead to the scale of the mining ecosystem not being able to expand.

But miners are supporting the entire network.

In other words, for someone attacking the network, the cost of the attack will be relatively low, while the benefits will be high.

What determines the vitality of something is naturally more important internally than externally.

But there is something more intrinsic, which is whether this thing reflects real progress.

Since the deflationary currency story doesn’t make sense, just let it go.

Bitcoin can also be an inflationary currency. Just do a fork.

Inflation is actually a kind of "holding tax". If Bitcoin is an inflationary currency, the above problems will be easily solved.

If Bitcoin becomes an inflationary currency, what value does it have (because it feels like something fundamental has been overturned)?

Bitcoin originated from an anti-exploitation spirit, and this exploitation refers to the "inflation tax."

Even if we retreat from this step, we still cannot deny the value of Bitcoin in terms of decentralization.

In this way, it still makes sense.

Perhaps, this is just a process from obsession to maturity.

Change often requires things to drive it forward.

Maybe an attack, or something else, will become an opportunity.