QKL123 Market Analysis | BCH and BSV halved before BTC, how do miners react? (0408)

The halving has the most direct impact on miners' behavior. The current BTC price of $7,000 has brought old mining machines such as Ant S9 back to life. But after the halving, if other conditions remain unchanged, the BTC shutdown price of such mining machines will rise to around $12,000. Under the same conditions, the shutdown price of new mining machines such as S19 will be around $5,000. In other words, if the total network computing power and Bitcoin price do not change much in the near future, new mining machines can continue to benefit after the halving, while old mining machines will be eliminated.

The halving should have been a positive expectation for the market. However, under the global epidemic and the US debt crisis, the black swan event caused the sharp drop in BTC and US stocks last month, and the crypto asset market entered a situation of bottoming out again. Bitcoin has the dual attributes of a safe-haven asset and a risky asset. On the one hand, it will be linked to the gold price, and on the other hand, it will be linked to the US stock market. Although the dark clouds in the capital market have dragged down the crypto asset market, the flooding of central banks in various countries has given it a chance to get rid of the linkage.

At present, with the recent sharp rebound of US stocks, the continuous release of positive expectations for halving will fuel the coordinated rebound of the crypto asset market. However, the dark clouds in the capital market have not receded, and the US stock market has not yet bottomed out, and the subsequent crypto asset market will still be affected by it.

1. Spot BTC market

BTC fell from yesterday's high of $7,470, and today's lowest point hit $7,080. It fluctuated and fell back in the short term, and the overbought state has eased. At present, the altcoins are volatile, and the market funds are net outflow, but they have not fallen below the upward trend. After the pullback, it is likely to rise by inertia, and the upper space is around $7,800.

2. Spot ETH Market

ETH fell back after a sharp rise, and currently has short-term support at $160. The long and short positions are in a stalemate, and the released volume is relatively balanced. There is a clear divergence between large and small orders in the market. After a short-term shock adjustment, it is more likely to accumulate strength for an upward attack.

3. Spot BCH Market

BCH performed well today, and was significantly stronger than BTC and ETH. It is expected that the block reward will be halved tonight, so it is not advisable to chase the rise in the short term. If BTC cannot follow up, there will be a greater risk of a subsequent decline.

4. Spot LTC Market

LTC fell back from yesterday's 48 USD, and the released volume was similar to that of ETH, with a hammer-shaped support at 43 USD below. It stabilized and moved upward in the short term, mainly linked to BTC.

5. Spot EOS Market

The trend of EOS is similar to that of LTC. It stabilizes and moves upward in the short term, testing the upper pressure of $2.8.

6. Spot ETC Market

After a short-term decline, ETC once again reached its recent high, mainly linked to BTC.

7. Analyst Strategy

1. Long-term (1-3 years)

Although the long-term trend of BTC is deteriorating, it is a good time to hoard coins and make fixed investments. You can refer to the hoarding coin index. The leading smart contract platform ETH, the leading altcoin LTC, the leading DPoS EOS, the leading BTC fork coin BCH, and the leading ETH fork coin ETC can be configured at low prices.

2. Mid-term (January to March)

Affected by the overall financial environment, it is difficult for the market to bottom out in a short period of time. Those with light positions can enter in batches. Those with heavy positions can continue to hold and wait for the positive expectations of halving to be exhausted.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Step back up and move the camera.

Appendix: Indicator Explanation

1. 8BTCCI Market Index

8BTCCI Market Index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global blockchain market, so as to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2. Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange status of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and further reflects the strength of Bitcoin's competition in the market. It is used to measure the degree of change in the relative price of Bitcoin to a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger Bitcoin's performance in the Token market.

3. USDT OTC Discount and Premium Index

ChaiNext USDT OTC Premium/Discount Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means USDT is at par, when the index is greater than 100, it means USDT is at a premium, and when it is less than 100, it means USDT is at a discount.

4. Net capital inflow (outflow)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. It calculates the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds on the global trading platform (without eliminating false transactions). A positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, while a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the transaction amount when the market rises is counted as inflow of funds, and the transaction amount when the market falls is counted as outflow of funds.

5.BTC-HOD indicator

The coin hoarding indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist Bitcoin fixed investment users in making investment decisions based on timing strategies. The indicator consists of the product of two parts: the former is the ratio of Bitcoin price to Bitcoin's 200-day fixed investment cost; the latter is the ratio of Bitcoin price to Bitcoin's fitted price. Generally speaking, when the indicator is lower than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom-fishing), and the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, it is suitable to adopt a fixed investment strategy, and the time interval accounts for about 39%.

Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.