Futures are a trading method that spans time. The two parties to the transaction do not have to deliver the physical goods at the beginning of the transaction, but agree to deliver the physical goods at a certain time in the future, so it is called "futures". The FIL6 mentioned above means that the lock-up period of Filecoin is 6 months. There is a lock-up plan when Filccoin is raised, and the lock-up period is 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years respectively. The token distribution time starts from the date when the Filecoin mainnet is launched. The lock-up period mentioned above is not rigorous. Taking June as an example, the tokens will be distributed within 6 months after the mainnet is launched, not all at once after 6 months. Some miners have consulted Filecoin officials about FIL futures, and the official has made it clear that Filecoin cannot be bought or sold before the mainnet is launched. You can check the official investor warning statement on the blog: During and after the sale of Filecoin tokens, we have seen parties claiming to sell Filecoin SAFTs or tokens, and exchanges listing Filecoin and Filecoin derivatives. Remember that Filecoin tokens will only take effect after the mainnet is launched, and any exchange that lists Filecoin tokens or IPFS tokens now may be fraudulent. We will announce on the Filecoin blog when the Filecoin mainnet and tokens will take effect. Until then, we strongly recommend that you stay away from any exchange or entity claiming to buy, sell, or trade Filecoin or IPFS SAFTS, tokens, or derivatives. Many domestic investors, including exchanges, participated in Filecoin's ICO fundraising. Now we see that the FIL futures circulating on some exchanges are derived from the ICO shares they participated in. They packaged their ICO shares into FIL futures products and put them into circulation on the exchanges. According to the requirements of the SAFT agreement, if Filecoin fails to launch the mainnet and release FIL within the agreed time, ICO investors will receive compensation within the scope of legal protection. FIL futures listed on exchanges are completely backed by the credit of the exchange and the original investors who provided the ICO shares, which involves certain acceptance risks. Currently, exchanges vary in quality and face fraud, running away, and other behaviors. The time and payment risks are greatly increased. Generally speaking, FIL futures are not suitable for long-term investment. From the perspective of Filecoin issuance: First of all, in the official setting of FIL, users pay FIL for storing data, and miners contribute their storage resources to obtain FIL, forming a good supply and demand overall. Secondly, Filecoin officially allocated 70% of the 2 billion coins to future miners. For miners, 1.4 billion coins are undoubtedly attractive. At the same time, these 1.4 billion FIL coins are released linearly, decreasing weekly and halving every six years. This distribution model effectively avoids the large-scale selling by the official or private equity team in the market, which causes large price fluctuations. In addition, since most investors are large institutions, these FILs are reluctant to sell. If the futures can be exchanged for spot after the mainnet is launched as promised by the exchange, then let's take FIL6 as an example. Six months after the launch, the exchange is very likely to fail to honor the contract and cause a crash. Therefore, from the perspective of issuance, the risk of FIL futures is much higher than the risk of spot. From the perspective of Filecoin incentive mechanism: There are two types of Filecoin miners: storage miners and retrieval miners. Retrieval miners help users extract saved content or provide retrieval services and bandwidth to obtain retrieval fees; storage miners obtain storage fees from users by providing storage space capacity in the market. At the same time, storage miners obtain the right to create blocks (incentive mechanism) and receive block rewards through the proof of time and space workload (PoSt). Let's make the worst-case scenario. If Filecoin's development after the mainnet is launched is not as good as expected, or if there are major risks during the operation of the early incentive mechanism, leading to low spot prices, or in extreme cases, there are risks such as policy blockades, all of which may trigger a stampede in futures. The cost of FIL futures is higher than the incentive mechanism, and the risk is also greater than the incentive mechanism. Although for Filecoin, investing in FIL futures may also yield high returns, the time risk and repayment risk are still too great, and it is not suitable for long-term investment. |
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