With the halving imminent, can Bitcoin lead the market to a new high?

Previous Issue Review

BTC: BTC is in an important pressure range of $10,000 to $10,500. If it can continue to break through $10,500, it will be the watershed of the market's bull-bear transition. On May 8, the BTC price tested the $10,000 pressure range.

ETH: ETH will continue to test the support of $200, and after confirmation, it will launch the next round of upward attack. It tested $200 several times on May 4 and May 7, and after confirming the support, it broke through $210 on May 8.

BCH: BCH can be bought on dips between $245 and $250, with a stop loss at $240. After falling below $240, wait and see. BCH prices fluctuated between $240 and $260 this week.

Key points of this issue

Summary: According to the Standard Consensus Sentiment Index, the current market sentiment is enthusiastic, with the latest index at 5.49. The index has been rising rapidly this week, with a certain decrease in trading volume. As the market continues to rise, investor sentiment is evolving towards excessive enthusiasm, and we need to guard against market corrections.

BTC: Pay close attention to whether the price of BTC can remain stable above $9,000 after the halving. If it is successfully supported, BTC will rise again after a period of shock and accumulation.

ETH: ETH has strong support at $200, but the current upward momentum is limited. When it falls below $200, the direction will change.

BCH: The top of BCH is gradually moving downward in the short term, and the support range is at $240. If it falls below, you can short with a light position.

This report

As of the release date of the report (May 8, 2020), the total market value of global digital currency assets was US$267.894 billion on Friday, up US$22.693 billion year-on-year, up 9.25%. The 24-hour market turnover was US$193.072 billion, down US$20.856 billion year-on-year, down 9.75%. The market value of the entire market rose again this week, but the turnover decreased to a certain extent. As the market continued to force shorts and rise, investors gradually became wait-and-see. With the arrival of Bitcoin halving day, the market's expectations for further increases will weaken.

Data source: Standard Consensus, CoinMarketCap

According to the Standard Consensus Sentiment Index, the current market sentiment is enthusiastic, with the latest index at 5.49. This week, the index has been rising rapidly, and the trading volume has decreased to a certain extent. As the market continues to rise, investor sentiment is evolving towards excessive enthusiasm, and it is necessary to guard against market corrections. At the same time, according to the Bitcoin market capitalization ratio chart, the market capitalization share of Bitcoin has increased significantly, up 2.6% year-on-year; the market capitalization share of other currencies has not changed significantly. BTC still dominates the market. As the BTC halving is approaching, BTC's trend is stronger than other currencies, and the concentration of funds is relatively high.

Data source: Standard Consensus, CoinMarketCap

According to the Standard Consensus Halving Countdown Index, the current BTC block height is 629,452, and there are only 3 days left until the next halving. The BTC output value halving is just around the corner, and the BTC mining difficulty has turned from decreasing to increasing, although the BTC price has rebounded to a large extent.

Trend review and analysis of BTC, ETH, and BCH

According to CoinMarketCap data, the average daily turnover rate of BTC in the past 7 days is 28.10%, which is 1.98% lower than the average daily turnover rate in the past three months and 0.48% lower than the average daily turnover rate last week. After a period of wide fluctuations between $8,500 and $9,500, BTC once again broke through the high point in early May and once exceeded $10,000. The return of BTC price to $10,000 will once again ignite the passion of investors, but there are a lot of pressure codes between $10,000 and $10,500, which can inhibit the further rise of BTC to a certain extent. There are still 3 days before the BTC halving. After the halving, the BTC price will have a large correction. Focus on whether the price of BTC can be stabilized above $9,000 after the halving. If it is successfully supported, after a period of shock and accumulation, BTC will rise again.

According to CoinMarketCap data, the average daily turnover rate of ETH in the past 7 days is 89.01%, which is 0.42% lower than the average daily turnover rate in the past three months and 3.71% lower than the average daily turnover rate last week. In terms of trading volume, ETH has been declining for two consecutive weeks, and the market capital transfer is obvious. In the short term, BTC has seriously sucked blood from other currencies, and ETH has also been greatly affected. After the BTC halving is completed, ETH 2.0 will become a hot news in the market, and investors' attention will shift back to ETH. ETH has strong support at $200, but the current upward momentum is limited. When it falls below $200, the judgment direction will change.

According to CoinMarketCap data, the average daily turnover rate of BCH in the past seven days is 75.57%, which is 17.95% lower than the average daily turnover rate in the past three months and 11.19% lower than the average daily turnover rate last week. The trading volume of BCH has dropped significantly, partly because BTC has seriously sucked blood from the entire market, and partly because the market does not have too much funds to allocate to other currencies. The funding situation will seriously restrict the growth of the market. When the BTC halving is completed, it may promote the return of funds, but the strength is limited. In the short term, the top of BCH will gradually move down, and the support range is $240. If it falls below, you can short with a light position.

Risk Warning:

• Be vigilant against illegal financial activities carried out under the banner of blockchain and new technologies. Standard Consensus firmly resists the use of blockchain for illegal fundraising, online pyramid schemes, ICO and its various variants, and the dissemination of bad information, and other illegal activities.