[Bold Prediction] What kind of surprises will Filecoin bring to miners after the mainnet goes online?

Filecoin, the most popular project in 2020, is more concerned about the revenue it will bring after the launch of the Filecoin mainnet than the launch time of the mainnet. Today, I will help you estimate the future revenue of Filecoin.

This picture is a plan for releasing tokens after the Filecoin mainnet goes online. From this plan, we can see that after Fil goes online, miners, investors, the Filecoin Foundation and the Filecoin team will all receive tokens one after another.

What we should note here is that there are a total of five categories of people or institutions that will receive Fil tokens, but none of them will get all the tokens at once.

Although the most powerful investment institutions get all the tokens in the shortest time, they still have to go through a three-year linear release process to get the tokens. During these three years, the number of tokens obtained each year is 66666666, and the average number of tokens obtained per day is 182648 (=66666666 / 365).

Other token recipients, miners, the Filecoin Foundation and the Filecoin team will receive tokens released by the system over a six-year period.

From this token release plan, we can see the good intentions of the project party - through locking and linear release, the huge selling pressure faced by general blockchain projects after going online is avoided, thereby stabilizing the price of Filecoin tokens.

After the Filecoin mainnet is launched, the actual price of the token will still depend on the market's view of Filecoin. However, we can make a bold prediction here for your reference:

First, we need to find an object for reference.

Taking into account Filecoin's fame and great potential for use cases, we assume that under a more optimistic scenario, the circulating market value of Fil tokens may enter the top ten.

According to My Token’s ranking, based on the market conditions at the time of writing, CRO is ranked tenth with a market value of nearly US$2.1 billion (RMB 14.7 billion).

We will take US$2.1 billion as the circulating market value of Fil.

We estimate that the first year after Fil goes online will be a period of high popularity for the project. Therefore, we choose one month and three months after Fil goes online to estimate the circulation of Fil tokens.

According to the table above, we can see that in the first year, the average amount of FIL released per day was about 780,000. For the sake of simplicity, we will calculate it as 800,000.

At the same time, we noticed that among the nearly 800,000 coins, miners received nearly 420,000 coins, which is more than 50% of the total released amount. Among these coin holders, miners need to use Filecoin tokens as collateral to carry out subsequent mining.

Therefore, we assume that miners hold their coins and do not sell them in the first to third months after the launch, while other coin holders will sell their coins. In this case, 380,000 tokens will be thrown into the market every day (= 80 - 42).

Therefore, in an optimistic scenario, the market sells 380,000 tokens every day, and in a pessimistic scenario, it sells 800,000 tokens.

Then one month after Filecoin goes online, the total number of tokens circulating in the market will be 11.24 million (= 38 x 30) to 24 million (= 80 x 30), and three months later, the total number of tokens circulating in the market will be 33.72 million (= 1124 x 3) to 72 million (2400 x 3).