How Bitcoin Price Could Reach $60,000 by 2023

In 1962, sociologist Everett Rogers published his famous book, The Diffusion of Innovations, in which he divided consumers into five categories: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards.

Currently, Bitcoin is near the chasm of Rogers' "Innovation Adoption Curve", and its price looks very similar to that before Apple's stock price exploded in 2008. So, will Bitcoin experience a big explosion in the future, just like Apple's stock price?

Since the Innovation Adoption Curve was created, it has been used extensively across many industries. This curve describes almost perfectly how the psychological characteristics of each group reflect consumer habits and how they approach innovative products and services. One of the most important areas to note is the clear breaking point known as the "chasm."

Consumer preferences vary widely

The gap between early adopters and the early majority exists because consumers prefer to listen to and copy references from their group. This leap represents the transition of innovative products and services to the mainstream market and has many similarities to the current life cycle of cryptocurrencies.

Therefore, crossing the chasm is extremely important for any product or service that wishes to serve a more pragmatic customer base.

In Crossing the Chasm, Geoffrey Moore argues that to transcend this gap, products should offer complete solutions, provide high service levels to attract pragmatists, and build strong word-of-mouth.

The growth of smartphones provides a good example.

Although smartphones are now a household name, they grew at an average annual rate of just 20% in the industry’s first two years. Over the next five years, a 50% growth rate suggests the technology has moved to a wider user base.

Apple's iPhone was launched in June 2007 and sold more than 300,000 units in its first weekend, while the iPhone 3G was launched a year later and set a record of 1 million units sold in its first weekend.

Under these circumstances, one would think that Apple's stock price would have a stable and healthy price chart during this period, but this has not been the case.

As mentioned above, Apple's stock price surged 63% in the second half of 2007, but even during this period, Apple's stock price fell 22% in just 5 days. In early 2008, Apple's stock price fell from $28 to $18 in less than a month, which was also a difficult period for shareholders.

Meanwhile, during this period, Apple's stock price underperformed the S&P 500 by 29.5% in the first quarter of 2008.

According to ComScore, smartphone penetration in the U.S. struggled to reach the 10% mark in 2008. Consumers are indisputably in the “early adopter” phase, so investors have reason to be skeptical of optimistic forecasts, even those from reputable investment firms.

Bitcoin in 2020 vs. Apple in 2008

As shown in the chart above, recent polls show that 11% of Americans own Bitcoin, which is roughly the same as smartphone penetration in December 2008. Similar trends can be found in price fluctuations and the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500.

While Bitcoin can be considered an innovative technology with indisputable advantages over traditional financial instruments and gold itself, it has yet to prove its trillion-dollar potential. Changing human patterns and, more importantly, beliefs also remains a difficult task.

The definition of money is deeply ingrained in society because it relies on a fiat system of centralized institutions. Furthermore, “money” is often subject to the volatile control of governments and central banks. Bitcoin may undergo some form of metamorphosis to reach the most pragmatists in its early days.

The launch of the iPhone 4 in June 2010 finally ignited the spark for these pragmatists. Was it the 5-megapixel camera with 720p resolution? Or was it the launch of FaceTime? Of course, it was probably a combination of these products and milestones that allowed Apple to cross the chasm.

Outlook

It is futile to imagine how to transform an entire niche of participants who have realized the benefits of Bitcoin but have remained indifferent so far.

Meanwhile, small adoption catalysts for merchants and investors are in place, such as BitPay and Coinbase Commerce, but there is still much room for improvement.

Apple investors who fled in 2008 due to stock price volatility, a 20% drop in market value, or uncertainty about future mainstream adoption may now regret it. That’s because Apple’s stock price skyrocketed 520% ​​over the next three years, reaching $78 in early 2012. Today, Apple’s stock price is as high as $382.

A similar growth result for Bitcoin would push its price to $59,900, giving it a market cap of $1.1 trillion by 2023. Of course, to many, this sounds highly irrational.

Bitcoin's potential trillion-dollar valuation is only 10% of gold's total market value of $11 trillion. Although this may seem like an impossible number, it only accounts for 3% of the current global supply of banknotes, coins, and check deposits. (Maitian Finance)