Multi-dimensional analysis: Understanding the mystery and situation of Filecoin in one article (Part 1)

Since April, the hottest topic discussed in major media and communities has been Filecoin. At the same time, capital institutions are running back and forth, major mining companies are on the alert, optimistic news comes one after another, pessimistic news also comes one after another, and various parties hold their own opinions and argue endlessly. Even the Filecoin official seems to be confused, and in this wave of public opinion, it ultimately failed to stick to the established planning route. The date of the mainnet launch has been delayed again and again, and the founder Juan has been called the "pigeon king".

What’s even more interesting is that in a recent AMA, Juan said that unless he gets COVID-19, the launch time of Filecoin’s mainnet will not change. The result is… a two-week calibration period has been added. As for whether Juan’s words really came true or there are other reasons, it is unknown.

When the interests of government, miners, investment institutions, media, and mining machine investors are tied together, all negative factors can be said to be positive factors. In particular, the major domestic investors in this project have mastered the media resources in the industry and become the helmsmen of public opinion. This should attract the attention of all mining machine investors.

It never hurts to plan ahead.

Three Mysteries of Filecoin

At present, more than 90% of the institutions and individuals who are enthusiastic about Filecoin are going for FIL. In other words, few people are really optimistic about its landing value. If it is really optimistic about its landing value, before the official launch of the main network, it should have negotiated cooperation with some corporate ends in various countries, especially the B-end with extremely high demand for Sonic data storage. However, it did not.

In other words, the concocted application scenarios are likely just to attract more people to buy mining machines and take over FIL. This is a game planned by capital and a mystery in the minds of investors.

1. Do data storage demanders really need distributed storage?

The concept of data storage is not necessarily new. Both GXB and Storj involve related concepts. However, the arrest of GXB's Huang Minqiang touched on sensitive data security issues, and the previous Qvod incident made data storage and security issues a sensitive point of public concern.

If distributed storage is truly decentralized, who will solve the regulatory issues? Who will be responsible for the upload of pornographic and sensitive information to the chain? Luotuo believes that if this issue involving policy risk control is not resolved, Filecoin will eventually become a project at the level of currency speculation and will not be able to develop into a chain-level ecological application.

The grand concepts and application scenarios are like castles in the air, like dreams and illusions, which will fall apart at the slightest touch. The price of the currency is a matter of debate.

2. Can decentralized storage really be implemented?

At present, not to mention China, even abroad, there are many obstacles to truly "decentralized" projects. The existence of the BTC project does not mean anything. The final implementation of blockchain technology will still be under the control of the central government. Filecoin's dream of decentralized storage will eventually be broken due to the intervention of regulators. For example, before data is uploaded to the chain, a regulatory port will be introduced to filter the relevant data at the regulatory level. Only when it is not pornographic or sensitive can it be sealed, stored, and uploaded to the chain.

Therefore, those investors who are still investing in mining machines and FIL futures should wake up as soon as possible. The biggest risk of blockchain is still at the policy level.

When the real crackdown policy comes, all that will be left is a mess. However, if the authorities can actively cooperate with regulators in various countries, just like BSV, actively embrace regulation and cooperate with the B-side, it is not impossible for its grand vision to be realized, but it is a long way to go, so let's wait and see.

3. Will the cloud storage giant allow Filecoin to share the storage pie?

The cloud storage market will certainly become more and more popular due to the impact of the 5G era. For example, we often see in the news that Amazon has invested billions of dollars in the cloud storage market, and Alibaba has invested 200 billion in data center construction...

In an article written by Camel before, "In-depth Analysis: Will Hainan Become the Capital of Blockchain Technology Development? Please See the N Reasons Why Shenzhen Wins", Wang Yongli, former Vice President of Bank of China and Chief Economist of Shenzhen Neptune Group, quoted a sentence in the opening of the article "Blockchain and Bitcoin": "Bitcoin blockchain is not a single technology, but an integrated whole composed of multiple technologies."

It is foreseeable that blockchain, big data, cloud computing and 5G will be effectively combined in the future. Then, the competition in data is likely to be a battle between the dominant centralized storage and decentralized storage projects.

In a world with an established pattern, cloud storage has firmly monopolized the data market. Even with the advent of the 5G era, this pattern will not be broken.

What Filecoin is facing is not a technical problem, but an institutional problem that has already firmly monopolized data resources. From this point of view, Filecoin will eventually become a concept hyped by speculators, but it is still a long way from the emergence of "large-scale landing applications", or even not appearing.

Even the current applications based on IPFS technology are not decentralized in nature. Therefore, Camel concludes that IPFS technology will become a track that cloud storage giants will try to open up in the future, but they will not use it in its entirety, but only where it can be used. Just like the non-coin blockchain, with the introduction of supervision and the development of the alliance chain, it is still a centralized world in essence.

You can solve the above puzzles and then decide whether to invest. If you don’t have the answers in your mind and blindly follow the trend, investing in mining machines and FIL futures currencies may cause you to face the risk of huge losses.

Of course, investment often has two sides. The greater the risk, the greater the profit. The above is just my personal opinion, nothing more. For more information, please see the next article "Understanding the Mystery and Situation of Filecoin in One Article (Part 2)". Camel will focus on the established pattern that cannot be broken in various circles and the "investment situation" concocted by investors. Please stay tuned.