Do you know the hidden dangers of Filecoin explosion?

Four years after ICO, there is news that Filecoin, a star project in the industry, is about to launch its mainnet.

The launch time of the mainnet of this project with a market value of 50 billion US dollars has been postponed again and again. However, a harvesting game has already begun, and the hidden risks may explode as soon as it goes online.

Mining machines are expensive, when will the cost be recovered?

The Filecoin mining machine market is like a black box, hiding many secrets and darkness. From 2018 to 2019, hundreds of mining machine manufacturers entered the market. After several delays, some were eliminated and some entered. Although Filecoin has not yet been launched, mining machines have gone ahead, and various mining machine pools have been intensively marketing.

Compared with Bitcoin mining, Filecoin mining has higher requirements in all aspects. For example, a single machine cannot currently participate in mining, and power outages and network outages will trigger the mortgage penalty mechanism, resulting in the risk of computing power being cleared and the mortgage being withheld.

The Filecoin team also stated that it would not recommend any specific hardware configuration, but for convenience, it announced the configuration they used for various types of tests and recommended that miners conduct tests and experiments to find the best combination.

Therefore, the effectiveness of Filecoin mining is still unknown. This will test whether miners have cost-effective hardware, deeply customized mining systems, and stable operation and maintenance. In 2019, the cost of assembling a mining machine with a hard disk capacity of 96TB was about 35,000 yuan. However, the price set by mining machine manufacturers is about 80,000 yuan.

There are still scams in the market under the guise of Filecoin, but with the passage of time and elimination, these scams have become more covert and difficult to distinguish.

In addition, even if there is no scam, for ordinary investors, the threshold for investing in mining machines is still extremely high.

Take the rankings on the test network for example. Many mining machine manufacturers use rankings as a gimmick to sell mining machines. Although the rankings are public, users do not know how many machines were used and how much it cost to achieve this ranking.

Metaphysics cloud computing power, do you dare to buy it?

A large number of service providers that sell cloud computing power now do not have real mining machines and computing power, but are just making empty promises. Of course, there are also some service providers that previously sold mining machines and cloud computing power, but they ran away before the mainnet of the Filecoin project was officially launched, which made many people feel sad but unable to cry.

Mining is a heavy asset investment. Whether you buy a mining machine or cloud computing power for mining, you first have to pay a fixed cost, which will be slowly recovered through mining.

Filecoin miners need to stake tokens and cannot quit at will, otherwise they will be punished by the system. It is not easy for investors who have purchased cloud computing power to quit midway.

If the Filecoin mainnet suddenly starts to fall after it goes online, investors who bought the coins can sell them directly in the market to stop losses in time, while investors who bought mining machines or cloud computing power can only watch helplessly, unless they have very good financial means to hedge, but this is too demanding for ordinary people.

Cloud computing power is essentially no different from other physical miners, except for the different sales methods. The architecture behind it is actually similar, and there is nothing mysterious about it. Mining machines are not necessarily reliable, so is cloud computing power reliable?

Filecoin futures premium is too high, and you may be stuck

According to market research, more than 50 trading platforms have launched FIL futures or related derivatives trading, and the market enthusiasm is unprecedentedly high, which has never happened in any previous project.

However, there are certain risks in the current FIL futures investment. At present, the FIL futures sold by major platforms cannot be circulated. The FIL futures of each platform can be said to be the internal currency issued by the platform itself. In particular, some small platforms have insufficient trading depth and there are great trading risks. Therefore, we found that the price difference between platforms is also very large, but it cannot be arbitrage between different platforms like other tokens.

Furthermore, according to the current issuance volume of FIL futures on various exchanges, the issuance volume of FIL6 futures far exceeds 2 billion, with the issuance volume of Gate and LongBit alone being 1 billion each.

However, according to the Filecoin release rules, the total release of Filecoin in 6 months is about 150 million. So, it can be said that the current exchange Filecoin futures are over-issued, and there is a risk that they will not be redeemed in the future.

The objective redemption risk and time risk are unavoidable. In addition, futures are not officially recognized and cannot be withdrawn to personal wallet addresses. The waters of filecoin futures are indeed deep.

Is Filecoin the next hot spot or the biggest wind in history? The answer to this question can probably only be found when the tide recedes.