Multi-dimensional analysis: Understanding the mystery and situation of Filecoin in one article (Part 2)

Several major mining companies are working tirelessly to expand the market and increase their market share. The media is hyping up and advocating the future commercial value of Filecoin. Is it possible that investment institutions are behind the scenes and acting as a promoter of this so-called "king-level project" of the distributed storage concept?

We don’t know and we dare not jump to conclusions. However, it is worth mentioning that relevant people have done statistics and found that more than half of the more than 400 large and small events held by the blockchain industry across the country since 2020 are related to Fillecoin.

For example, the Blockchain Week in Hangzhou was jokingly called "Rather than calling it Blockchain Week, it might as well be called a special event for Filecoin and IPFS." Since April, the popularity of Filecoin has been ignited like gasoline at high temperature. Almost at the same time, the assembly hardware of mining machines has increased in price, and the hot topics discussed by major media and communities are all Filecoin.

Founder Juan also vowed: "The launch time of Filecoin mainnet will not change, we will abide by the established time." As a result, the investment in mining machines and FIL futures is unprecedentedly hot. However, the "new two-week calibration period" once again made him the "pigeon king".

Just as the Filecoin team visited China in 2019, many people rushed into the mining machine investment tide due to FOMO sentiment, and some friends even took risks for the purpose of making quick money. As a result, they bought mining machines and waited anxiously for the launch of the Filecoin mainnet, but what they waited for was the official announcement that was changed again and again.

Some media said that this was a perfect plan put together by investment institutions, officials and mining machine manufacturers. Whether the idea is too far-fetched or not is not discussed here, because everyone has their own opinions. Let’s only talk about what mining machine investors are concerned about recently.

So, what impact does Filecoin’s frequently postponed mainnet launch time have? Does this imply a predetermined situation?

1. On one side, there are returns, and on the other side, there are out of stock

Investors who started investing in mining machines in early 2019 have been waiting for more than a year, and can be said to be sitting on pins and needles. On the one hand, there are always bearish and pessimistic voices on the market about Filecoin, and even industry leaders have publicly stated that Filecoin is a carefully planned scam.

On the other hand, the launch time of Filecoin mainnet has been continuously postponed, and the funds have been locked in the mining machines and unable to be circulated, wasting the investment cycle of more than one year. This is a reality that many investors who wanted to rush in to buy mining machines and make quick money when the mainnet was launched could not bear.

"Return the goods." Many mining machine investors complained. Faced with the postponed mainnet launch time, mining machine manufacturers are helpless. On the one hand, they appease investors, and on the other hand, they try to explain the "benefits of delaying the mainnet launch" from a favorable perspective: for example, the official attaches great importance to the operation of the Filecoin mainnet after the launch... Everything is for the subsequent safer and more stable operation of the network... The team has very strict requirements for technology... The impact of the epidemic has led to a shortage of hardware facilities, etc.

On the one hand, they are asking for returns, and on the other hand, they are advocating shortages and creating an atmosphere where mining machines are in short supply. This seems to have become an industry consensus among the vested interests in this interest chain, but the only ones who suffer are investors.

2. Impact on FIL futures currency

Futures currencies are essentially concept coins issued by exchanges themselves in order to attract attention - as long as there is an exchange crisis after the Filecoin mainnet is launched, investors will be unable to withdraw cash, and the coins will become nothing.

No matter how FIL futures currency soared in the early stage, it had nothing to do with the real FIL. Because the exchanges that issued FIL futures currency did not dare to disclose the acceptance ratio of FIL futures currency to actual FIL, taking the current price of FIL futures currency in various 18-tier exchanges as an example, the highest price is more than 300, and the lowest price is less than 100.

Previously, industry insiders mentioned that the biggest risk in the second half of the year, apart from policy risk, is actually withdrawal risk.

In the first half of the year, due to the halving of Bitcoin, all major exchanges followed the BTC rise of first-tier exchanges and pushed up their own BTC prices. For example, due to the advantages of trading depth, trading popularity and traffic, it is not difficult for the three major exchanges to push up the price of BTC. However, in some eighteen-tier exchanges, the daily trading volume of BTC is even higher than that of the three major exchanges, which is questionable. It seems that the volume is brushed by robots or deliberately done internally, which is worth pondering.

Similarly, if the Filecoin mainnet is launched in the second half of the year, exchanges that have already issued FIL futures may face acceptance risks, which will also become a potential factor for many exchanges to go bankrupt. Friends who invest in FIL futures should be more careful.

Interestingly, some people in the industry have made a corresponding comparison between Filecoin and EOS and found that the two projects are extremely similar:

It is also touted as blockchain 3.0;

It is also popular in terms of fund-raising, and has attracted many well-known capital institutions;

Similarly, EOS has a majority of Chinese nodes, and Filecoin has a majority of Chinese mining machine investors;

Likewise, two kinds of voices have always been prevalent, with many optimistic and pessimistic voices;

Similarly, there are many people who use the name of EOS/Filecoin to engage in fundraising fraud...

Therefore, some industry insiders boldly asserted that the game of Filecoin is the same as that of EOS. The dishes are still the same, and the taste has not changed. It’s just that the seats, the people eating together, and the time of eating have changed. (This article is about the game of Filecoin, which may involve the interests of many parties, so it is inconvenient to explain it clearly. It can only be discussed in this slightly euphemistic tone. I hope readers will understand.)

So some people conclude that Filecoin will eventually have the same fate as EOS, born with a golden key in its mouth, but ended up being criticized and its price plummeted . The former EOS fans have become EOS haters, and whether Filecoin will have the same fate, we will have to wait and see.