The cryptocurrency world is full of mixed feelings: So many people think the bull market is coming

Is the bull market coming?

I don’t know what the answer is in everyone’s mind. Personally, the feedback I get from my circle of friends (mostly practitioners) and the community (mostly investors) is different, but I have more or less received a lot of feedback about “the bull market is coming” in the past few days.

If nothing else, it's been a while since we've heard this. When was the last time people were cheering for a bull market? I can't even remember.

Whether true or not, maintaining hope for the bull market and being respectful of risks are what we should do in the cryptocurrency market, or any market.

Because I heard a lot of people talking about the bull market, and to be honest, I also felt a bit of the bull market, so I posted a survey on Weibo to find out what people think. To be honest, the result was really beyond my expectation:

The number of people who chose the bull market was the largest, and the number of people who chose the bear market was the smallest. Since it was my fans who voted, there were also quite a few people who chose "none of my business" and hoarded coins, which was not surprising.

What surprised me the most was that the proportion of people who chose the bull market exceeded those who chose the bear market, with a difference of more than 50%. Of course, if I were to do a survey today, based on the background of Bitcoin breaking through 10,000, the proportion of people who chose the bull market would be higher. But you have to know that when I did this survey, Bitcoin was still hovering around 9,500.

To be honest, I am still curious why so many people think it is a bull market. I think there are probably several possibilities:

1. I remain optimistic about the overall market trend of Bitcoin this year and feel that it has indeed been a bull market in the past few months.

2. Participated in the DeFi carnival and the fake bull market.

3. The bet on ETH was successful and I felt the atmosphere of the bull market.

I think the second one should be the main one. In addition, considering that most of my fans are coin hoarders, the first one should be supplementary.

In any case, the fact that so many people think it is a bull market means they must have made money. Congratulations everyone.

However, many people also believe that it is still a bear market. They guess that they did not buy the right coins and have not made much money during this period, which makes them very upset.

In fact, this is quite similar to my feeling. The current cryptocurrency circle is indeed like heaven and hell.

For me personally, I am still looking forward to the bull market, especially the bull market of Bitcoin.

Especially after being ridiculed for such a long time (ridiculed by the stock market and copycat investors), I think BTC needs to go through a period of unilateral independent blood-sucking market so that we can relax from the frustration we have been experiencing during this period.

However, the bull market of Bitcoin is not as easy as the bull market of small cottages, which is beyond doubt. With the size of Bitcoin, to promote the start of a big bull market (basically everyone thinks that breaking through the previous high is one of the important signs of a bull market), it is definitely not enough to rely on funds within the circle, and it still needs the inflow of off-market funds.

So although I am eagerly looking forward to it, I still won’t shout slogans like “The bull market is coming, everyone hurry up, Bitcoin will be 20,000 tomorrow”. I would advise everyone to remain cautiously optimistic.

If you abandon the caution you developed in the bear market in the bull market, you may make a lot of money, but you may still not survive the next bear market.

As I said: money is lost in the bull market.

For all investors, the core at present is to determine whether the entire cryptocurrency market is a bull market, determine what stage of the bull market it is in, and then make the necessary changes to the investment allocation based on this judgment. For example, be conservative in a bear market and relatively aggressive in a bull market, but be sure not to be too aggressive.

"The bull market is coming, just close your eyes and invest", I have seen this sentence in many groups. How should I put it? This can indeed help you make a lot of money in the crazy stage of the bull market. To be honest, no matter which market, at the peak of the bull market, mindless investment is indeed the best way and the way to make the most money. If you mindlessly invest and use leverage, a thousand-fold return is not a dream.

But one wave can take away all your gains from the entire bull market.

I still remember the joy of investing in ICOs back then. You didn’t need to know what the project was about. You just needed to know who invested, which exchange it would be listed on, and how much the investment amount was. I almost never lost money.

But later on, in 2018, basically most people returned this money that fell from the sky to the market double.

Now it is a bit like the past. As long as it is DeFi, people will speculate on it, and as long as the coin is rising, they will cash in. Rational people can't make any money at all.

But you know, that's what people said about the storm back then.

What happened later, everyone knows.

Why is the bull market the main reason for ordinary people to lose money? In fact, it is very simple. The bull market will give you a feeling that it is easy to make money, but this feeling is wrong in most of the market. If your feeling directly guides your investment decisions, then as long as the market is slightly worse, your profit drawdown will basically be extremely serious.

Not to mention that if the market is completely over but your feeling is not over yet, you will basically have to give it back to the market.

You may even have to pay for it yourself.

If you feel excited about the bull market and want to jump in without thinking, then I suggest you talk more with the old investors who have experienced 2017 and 2018, and let their experience tell you why they experienced a bull market of that scale and madness but did not get rich as you expected.

But I still hope that the bull market is really coming. This week will be a critical week, so stay tuned.