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This article is reproduced from IPFS Force Observation
On July 28, Heige, one of the initiators of IPFS Force Observation, summarized the market chaos of Filecoin mining at the Force Zone Open Day on Tuesday. There are mainly six aspects of cognitive misunderstandings about mining.
Let’s first look at the first logical error. We have seen a saying in the past that prices can be calculated based on market value. There was once a table that calculated the price of Filecoin based on how long Filecoin has been online, the number of Filecoins in circulation in the market, and the assumed market value ranking of Filecoin. We can clearly see an error here, that is, putting the cart before the horse. The price of Filecoin cannot be calculated by the assumed market value, but the market value should be calculated by the price. This wrong method of calculation is actually understandable. Everyone generally believes that the price of Filecoin will be very high after it goes online. So how high will it be, and what theory can be used to support it? So some people began to use their imaginations and make various speculations. The second logical error is that Filecoin has a lot of fans, especially in China, where it is more popular than other projects. Judging from the fact that it has long been at the top of the hot search list on Beecha, and that various exchanges have launched Filecoin futures trading, Filecoin carries the dreams of many people. So some people have come up with such a theory, that is, the more fans a project has, the higher the price of the corresponding currency of this project. This theory seems to work on the surface. We can see that there are more than 30 million BTC holding accounts on Feixiaohao. Some small projects have few participants, so the price is not high. Two points should be emphasized here. The first is that the price is not determined by the number of holders. Although the number of holders or participants will tend to push the price up, this is not absolute. Price is a reflection of value. In the end, it depends on what problem the project solves and whether it is urgent to solve it immediately. The second is that a large number of fans or participants will form a split consciousness, and a small number of participants will form a group consciousness. When the number of participants is small, no one will sell when there is good news, and the price will rise. When there is bad news, everyone will sell, and the price will fall. If there are many participants, there will be a split consciousness, and when the price rises or falls, people with different consciousness will take opposite actions. For example, when the price reaches a small peak, some people will sell, and others may think that the price still has room to rise, and continue to hold or increase their positions. So what many fans can do is not to push the price to a certain level, but to keep the price at a certain level and not fall sharply. The third logical error is that there has always been a voice in the market that to investigate a mining organization, one only needs to ask about its “packaging speed per 10,000 yuan”. What I want to say here is that "packaging speed per 10,000 yuan" is only a necessary condition for examining a mining organization, but it is only a necessary condition, not a sufficient condition. In plain words, the condition is insufficient. You should know that the simplest process of Filecoin should be "data access", "packaging on the chain", "block explosion" and "customer service quality". Filecoin wants to create a storage market, not a blockchain project that simply competes in packaging speed. Therefore, how to receive orders for data storage, how to build a service system that satisfies customers, and the operation and maintenance capabilities throughout the entire process are all necessary. Any failure to do well in any point may cause serious consequences. For example, if the operation and maintenance capabilities of the computer room are insufficient, it will always be down and offline. Not only will the mortgage coins be fined, but the computing power may even be cleared. I still remember that a big man in the circle once said at the last Hangzhou Blockchain Week that "after the mainnet is launched, a large number of institutions will die due to insufficient operation and maintenance capabilities." So the conclusion is: when examining a mining machine organization, you should examine the comprehensive capabilities, not just one point. The fourth logical error is that some people have calculated how much money will be needed to support the mainnet after it goes online. Without this amount of money, the market will collapse quickly . This view comes from viewing Filecoin in the mode of a Ponzi scheme, assuming that everyone sells at the same time. So let's see, if everyone sells BTC and ETH at the same time, does it take trillions of dollars to support just one BTC? What supports the support is the split consciousness of many participants mentioned earlier, and more importantly, the recognition of the project and the economic model of the project. The fifth logical error is that some people think that the circulation of Filecoin is 2 billion, which is too much compared to BTC's 21 million, so the price will not be too high.
First of all, we know that BTC can be divided into 8 decimal places for counting, so the number of BTC cannot be simply counted by the digits of integers. Therefore, in terms of absolute numbers, both BTC and Filecoin are super astronomical figures, so it is not valid to judge the price trend by the amount of issuance. In addition, this view comes from the cognition that "scarcity makes things valuable". We can see that many tokens with no value imitate BTC and also issue 21 million pieces, but eventually return to zero. Therefore, scarcity makes things valuable refers to intrinsic value, not quantity. The sixth logical error is that many Filecoin mining organizations mistakenly focus too much on blockchain technology and ignore the essence of Filecoin's need to build a storage market. Mistakes in this direction can have disastrous consequences. This mistake can be attributed to a misunderstanding of the Filecoin industry, which is actually reflected in the lack of preparation for operation and maintenance and the lack of preparation for expansion capabilities. Taking expansion capabilities as an example, we know that Filecoin wants to create a decentralized distributed storage market so that more idle resources can participate. Then the current hardware participation conditions are obviously contrary to the concept of Filecoin, so after the launch of the Filecoin mainnet, the hardware participation standards will definitely be lowered step by step. The most obvious example is that the SDR algorithm is replaced by the NSE algorithm after the mainnet is launched. This reduction in hardware participation standards is actually a change in the mining environment. If the mining system does not have good expansion capabilities to adapt to changes in various environments, then the possibility of being eliminated will be greatly increased. It may be reflected in the mining income, which may be a significant decline in income or even elimination. Statement: This article is an original article from IPFS Force District. The copyright belongs to IPFS Force District. It may not be reproduced without authorization. Violators will be held accountable according to law.
Tip: Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market. This article is not intended as investment and financial advice. |
