How high would Bitcoin’s price have to go to start a new bull run in October?

Market volatility was expected throughout the week due to large futures expiration. However, while the macroeconomic environment remained uncertain, volatility did not really occur.

On September 26, a cryptocurrency exchange was hacked, but it did not affect the price of cryptocurrencies, which is a positive sign for the market and a positive sign of market maturity.

But will this boring price action for Bitcoin (BTC) continue? Let’s take a look at the chart.

Bitcoin still hovers within daily timeframe

BTC/USDT 1-day chart Source: TradingView

Sometimes the charts can be relatively simple, and this is one of those cases. Earlier this month, the price of Bitcoin fell to between $11,100 and $11,300, establishing new support at $10,000.

The broken $11,100 to $11,300 area has now been confirmed as resistance as well as a new overhead resistance.

On the downside, it is not surprising that Bitcoin’s price could drop to $9,600 as the price level around $9,600 remains untested and the CME futures gap persists.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows a clear bullish divergence, which suggests a short-term trend reversal. Coupled with the overly bearish sentiment on social media, the market is ready for a rebound.

The same bullish divergence was seen in other cryptocurrencies, so the bounce was felt across most markets.

However, as mentioned in the previous analysis, the $10,800 mark is a crucial hurdle. If this resistance level can be overcome, Bitcoin will regain its bullish momentum towards the $11,100-11,300 area.

This $11,100-11,300 area is the last step before the bull run continues. If the price of Bitcoin can break through this resistance zone, then a test of the recent highs of $12,000-12,400 is possible.

Total market value seeks support

Cryptocurrency market capitalization 1 week chart Source: TradingView

The 1-week chart of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization shows a clear pattern. A new high was seen in the previous months, signaling the possible start of a new uptrend.

After a higher high, a new higher low must be established within which a range bound structure can be defined. The best area for such a higher low could be the previous resistance zone, marked green on the chart, around $250-275 billion, which would be a support/resistance flip zone that warrants continuation.

If this area holds, then this also explains why the start of a new cycle is relatively dull. At the beginning of a new market cycle, the level flips into support/resistance, and thereafter several months of range-bound trading may occur. An example is Bitcoin’s price action in 2016 (which was also the year of the halving).

1-week chart of BTC/USD in 2016 Source: TradingView

During this period, the price of Bitcoin was stable in an accumulation range throughout 2015. After this accumulation range, the price of Bitcoin suddenly broke out and rebounded towards the next resistance zone.

This rally ended a 6-month sideways movement. A new breakout occurred, and another 6-month sideways movement began. Therefore, the current market sentiment can be compared to that period.

However, the real excitement will come when the price of Bitcoin breaks through $20,000, as that is when the price of Bitcoin may go parabolic.

Bullish outlook for Bitcoin

BTC/USD 4-hour chart bullish outlook Source: TradingView

It should be noted that these scenarios are based on a shorter time frame (4-hour), so they should be considered a short-term outlook.

Since the price of Bitcoin is hovering in a range and is currently facing resistance, a drop to the $10,400 area is more likely to be expected. The $10,400 area is a crucial area to keep any bull run going.

If the price of Bitcoin holds at this level, a possible higher low is confirmed, which will drive further upward momentum. As shown in the chart, the key breakout point is the $10,800 area. If this area is broken, the next resistance area will be $11,150-11,300.

A breakout above the $11,150-11,300 area would be unexpected, but would make the bullish outlook even stronger.

Bitcoin’s bearish outlook

BTC/USD 4-hour chart bearish outlook Source: TradingView

At the same level, there is also a bearish outlook. If the price of Bitcoin fails to break above $10,800, it may test the $10,400 area.

As discussed earlier, a higher low could be formed, thus reintroducing the bullish view. However, if the price of Bitcoin fails to break through $10,550, further declines are expected, especially with the CME gap. Who would be happy about the CME gap filling in the past few months? (Cointelegraph Chinese)