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This article was originally written by IPFS Force Zone Hillhouse doesn't have any connections, we just do research. Whoever has deeper research can price the risk. ——Lei Zhang, Founder and CEO of Hillhouse Capital The first two articles in the mining guide series have explained the main software part of Filecoin operation and maintenance. This article will continue with the last content and briefly understand the hardware part ( "Mining Machine or Computing Power: How to Break Through Filecoin?" has an in-depth discussion of the hardware part) and how to judge the input-output of Space Race 1/Main Network Mining, and what landing scenarios will mining focus on after the main network is launched? The main points of this article: a brief analysis of the mining hardware and main network indicators; the application ecology of future mining: spot and derivatives, the general outline of DeFil, and expectations for commercial implementation. 1. Hardware accounting and reward costs of the space race We all know that mining pools or mining pool accessories are relatively large, mainly including CPU, hard disk, GPU, memory, motherboard, network card, display card, board connector, radiator, etc. Not only do many hardware devices need to be tailor-made, but also require specific matching methods to maximize the hardware resources for mining; otherwise it will lead to premature loss or even damage of the hardware, resulting in a gap in the actual input-output ratio. If we take mining machines as the unit, how much does one device cost? Can we see the efficiency of hardware utilization through the hardware input-output of the space race? The mainstream hardware configurations on the market are as follows: CPU: AMD 3960x/3970x, 3990X GPU: 1060, 1080, 1080Ti, 2080, 2080SUPER, 2080Ti SSD (Solid State Drive): 1T/2T*NVMe Price source: JD.com & PConline, IPFS Force Zone, 2020-09-27 If it is configured according to the low-end version, the main hardware cost is about 31,063 yuan, plus other minor accessories, it is estimated to be around 40,000 yuan (48T); the high-end version (general configuration 168T) has a main hardware cost of about 112,446 yuan, and if other customized accessories are added, it is estimated to be as high as 150,000 yuan. 1) Scale of hardware investment in the space race It is estimated that the hardware cost of the space race will exceed 70 million yuan. The total network computing power of this space race is as high as 230PiB. Assuming that all of it is effective computing power, the actual storage used is 2300PiB, the depreciation of new hardware is 3 years, and the cost of other technologies is the same as the hardware cost, then how to calculate the cost of this space race? Then the low-end version (48T) costs about 40,000 yuan per mining machine, and if the operation and maintenance site cost is considered the same as the hardware cost, then the technology and hardware costs consumed in the 21 days of the space race are approximately: Cost per ton = 40000/365/3*21*2/48≈31.9635 yuan, Then the cost of 230PiB effective computing power (assuming 2300PiB is actually used) is 31.9635*2300*1024≈75280365.2968 yuan; If the high-end version (168T) costs about 150,000 yuan per mining machine, then the technology and hardware costs consumed in the 21-day space race are approximately: Cost per ton = 150000/365/3*21*2/168≈34.2466 yuan, Then the average cost per FIL in 230PiB effective computing power (assuming 2300PiB is actually used) is 34.2466*2300*1024≈80657534.2466 yuan. 2) Understanding the hardware input-output ratio from the space race In Space Race 1, each FIL needs to pay for hardware operation and maintenance + labor costs of more than 30 yuan. Further analysis shows that the total reward for Space Race 1 is 3661591.1486986 FIL. If the low-end hardware is calculated at 7528.0365 million yuan, each FIL needs to pay 20.5595 yuan; if the high-end hardware is calculated at 8065.7534 million yuan, each FIL needs to pay 22.0280 yuan. The cost of Space Race 1 is low according to the current calculation results, mainly because it is difficult to consider the value of the company's technical operation and maintenance capabilities and the actual hardware elimination. The calculation result is limited by the actual development: this indicator refers to the valuation of 3 years of depreciation and pure labor, does not include the early scrapping of hardware (the actual situation may be scrapped earlier than expected), ignores the elimination of low-end hardware (may be directly eliminated), and the company's early technology development investment. Therefore, the current calculated value is relatively low, but in fact it will be higher than the cost. 3) During the period between the launch of the mainnet and low mining output, the FIL released in Space Race 1 will not cause much selling pressure. For the 3.66 million FILs in the space race, an average of 20,342 FILs are released every day. At the same time, according to the current situation, 150,000 to 200,000 FILs can be mined every day after the main network is launched (taking the median of 175,000), about 175,000/180=972 FILs are released every day. Assuming that the foundation, protocol labs, contributors, and investors release about 319,634 FILs every day, the total daily circulation release is about 340,949 FILs. According to the fact that about 30 FILs are required for each T of mortgage, if all of them are used as mortgages, the mortgage can be increased by 11.1PiB every day. At the same time, combined with the current daily growth rate of about 10PiB, the selling pressure of the FIL released in the early stage will not be very large. Most of them will be used as mortgages to expand the scale of mining , and the remaining small part of users who do not participate in the continued mining will choose to sell. 2. Reference key after the mainnet launch: FIL/T How to demonstrate technical development and operation and maintenance capabilities? After the mainnet is launched, FIL/T is the key. Filecoin technology is mainly divided into two parts: development and operation and maintenance. After the above hardware is assembled into a mining machine or mining pool, the technology maximizes resource utilization based on the geographical objective environment, hardware equipment, development and operation and maintenance level. The development is mainly based on the mining guide (I) to install Filecoin through self-compilation of source code to grasp each process, mainly including data synchronization, mining, creating miners, issuing orders to receiving orders, etc. Usually, it is mainly based on official network adjustments and then development. Operation and maintenance mainly involves scale expansion and maintenance. Scale expansion mainly involves adding clusters or mining machines (which can be observed through the daily computing power growth rate); maintenance mainly involves monitoring and supervising problems that arise during the operation of software and hardware to ensure the normal operation of the developed software. If used properly, the software can be used to its maximum effect. So, how do we understand the operation and maintenance level of Filecoin? Let’s take this Space Race 1 as an example and compare cost/FIL and FIL/T as a reference. Cost/FIL: The total cost of Space Race 1 is estimated to be around 20 yuan. We can calculate the cost of each company in the 21 days of Space Race 1. If there is an overspending during this period, there may be mistakes or gaps in the operation and maintenance level. FIL/T revenue chart of Space Race Phase 1, Filsacn.io, 2020-09-27 After the mainnet is launched, FIL/T reference becomes a key parameter. The average FIL/T for 21 days in the first phase of the space race is as shown above. If the FIL/T of the node is below the average curve for a long time or fluctuates on the curve, there is a certain gap in the operation and maintenance level or resource allocation utilization rate, which needs to be readjusted. At the same time, after the mainnet is launched, the comparison between the node and FIL/T can be combined to know the real income of the miner and the income of investors. 3. After mining, the big picture of the real scene Before the mainnet is launched, consensus, tokenization, technology development, and software and hardware mining have been completed. After that, we need to promote the implementation of the overall ecology based on other points, which are mainly divided into storage computing power growth, commercial implementation, and improvement of Filecoin's financial system. The following is the overall flow chart of Filecoin's ecology. Filecoin full ecosystem map, IPFS force zone, 2020-10-03 The growth rate of storage computing power is an eternal underlying factor. Whether it is Bitcoin or Ethereum mining, we have been exploring how to improve the efficiency of mining and input-output, so there are the operation and maintenance capabilities, clustered mining pools, distributed clustered mining pools, etc. that everyone is concerned about. Even after the competition gap is narrowed, it is urgent to independently research FPGA and ASIC chip technology to improve the level of individual social labor production and widen the gap in resource utilization. Commercial implementation is the key to reflecting the true value of Filecoin. At present, the price of Filecoin may be reflected in the mining cost, but long-term implementation requires physical applications. This stage will explore what is the real demand for Filecoin, which will be the early application, and how to expand the scale step by step. At present, the author has sorted out the development rules based on the previous Internet: the explosion of search engine giants, social software, entertainment (music and video, etc.) software, and subsequent enterprise services and government applications. Filecoin is a new generation of Internet based on IPFS, and its trend is likely to be like the traditional Internet. First, low-cost storage services will expand the market and accumulate data, then search engines will be used to educate users to understand the added value of the application, social software will promote the fission of users, and entertainment software will improve the user's service experience. Finally, the block will be used by enterprises and governments after verification. In the end, the block must meet the real needs of users, and the landing application needs to change constantly to match the real use needs of strong privacy, permanent storage and high security. Filecoin financial system, DeFil is the core. In the IPFS world, Filecoin is likely to be a circulating certificate. For this reason, the team needs to use spot exchanges, futures exchanges, wallets and DeFil to ensure the normal circulation and reasonable price of FIL at this stage. Because the history of the gold and silver standard warns us that if a country's legal currency is used unreasonably, it may lead to a catastrophe, so this area needs in-depth research and study. Later, we will have targeted content to discuss and study these three major sections. 4. Mining is the beginning and implementation is the end Mining is just the beginning of Filecoin's construction of IPFS. Future development trends and risks, chip upgrades, computing power scale and rewards, supervision, computing power attacks, forks, financial systems, and various aspects of ecological implementation urgently require our longer-term contributions. In the future, we need to build ecological applications for mining and truly empower the real economy, because implementation is the end point of mining. Statement: This article is an original article from IPFS Force District. The copyright belongs to IPFS Force District. It may not be reproduced without authorization. Violators will be held accountable according to law. Tip: Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market. This article is not intended as investment and financial advice. |
