Data Analysis: Will FIL’s target be $8?

So if a strange voice calls your name, you must not answer it. (Lu Xun, Morning Blossoms Plucked at Dusk)

During my years in the cryptocurrency world, I have observed that there are actually only a few projects that were considered to be top-tier projects before they were released. Ethereum is not one of them because it was in its very early stages and was not favored by the market when it was released. Even such an unexpected Ethereum fell below the private placement price when it first went online, and was therefore called a scam.

With the prosperity of blockchain, top-level projects have begun to emerge. These projects have high market attention and are very popular. Project parties and institutions have made early arrangements. From project establishment to research and development to coin issuance, each project has often increased many times by the time it finally reaches retail investors.

There are several so-called king-level projects in recent years, namely EOS, ATOM, ALGO and FIL. Before discussing ALGO, let’s review the history of these projects today.

Learning from history can help us understand the rise and fall of nations.

1. What was your original dream?

First, let’s take EOS. Because it adopts a continuous issuance method, the crowdfunding price calculation is more complicated. Initially, 1ETH=306EOS, and the average cost is about 1USDT. After that, the price trend is:

The highest was more than 20 U. Now the project has returned to the starting point and the issue price . The former glory will probably never be seen again.

I talk about EOS first because FIL is likely to be the next EOS, and its return to the origin will be much faster than EOS, because the environment is different and it is not so easy to reap the leeks. (Note: Please think independently and correctly when investing. I only provide data and personal analysis, do not take it as investment advice, and do not share the money you make with me.)

Let’s take a look at ATOM. This project focuses on the new concept of cross-chain, which once again rekindles people’s strong interest in the future. However, the project is a bit similar to FIL, that is, the project owners and institutions hold a large number of chips.

Retail investors were attracted by the vision of the project and rushed to take over. The most dangerous plot and the most touching story. The cost price of private placement is 0.1U. The trend chart after going online is as follows:

Huobi’s price is more than 2U, which is more than 20 times higher. The exchange usually pulls up the price after listing, and then falls all the way after a wave of highs, falling below the exchange’s listing price, all the way to 1U - the issue price. In this process, countless retail investors who were attracted by the vision paid precious tuition fees.

Many times the projects are good projects, but when the project owners and institutions have too many chips in their hands, everything becomes strange.

ALGO is a project participated by the Turing Award winner. For a time, "I, Turing Award, and I want to get money" became a hot topic in the cryptocurrency circle. The project designed a very, very sophisticated plate-like model to attract people to participate, because it has a design that only goes up and never goes down, and if it goes down, it will protect the principal. Coupled with the halo of the grand prize winner, the project attracted a lot of attention when it was launched.

The first batch of 2,500 ALGOs were traded at $2.4. Based on the total issuance of ALGO of 10 billion, a new conclusion was drawn - its total market value was as high as $24 billion, which exceeded Ripple and ranked third in the digital currency market value list after Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Because the project is so popular, some retail investors excitedly posted in the WeChat group: "In a few days, the total market value of ALGO will exceed that of Bitcoin." - We all know that retail investors who think this way will end up a little sad.

In fact, the private placement price of ALGO is 0.05U. No matter how sophisticated the model design is, it cannot stop the enthusiasm of the project party to ship. Let's take a look at the price trend of the currency:

Very good, back to square one again.

Finally, there is DOT. This project is the one I am most optimistic about because, in comparison, the cost price of institutions is much higher, which was 30, 60 and recently 120 US dollars a few years ago. The current price of the coin before the split is just over 300 US dollars, which is dozens or hundreds of times higher than the above projects that have skyrocketed within a few days of going online. The current private placement has only received 10 times, which is relatively reasonable.

But today I will not talk about DOT. I will write about DOT’s evangelism slowly later. Today, the important thing is to write about how much FIL will fall.

2. The reality of having no way out

Now let's go back to FIL. First, let's review the private placement price of the FIL project. There were 143 participants in the private placement, with an average holding of 638,000 coins per person and an average cost of $0.57. There were 2,318 participants in the public offering, with an average holding of 25,700 coins per person and an average cost of $2.58. The current price is still over $30, with no signs of stopping the decline.

And please note that the number of private placement unlocking is increasing every day, and what is shocking is that the number of unlocking is faster than everyone expected. During this period, Beijing Lian'an monitored that 150 FIL were unlocked in advance, and the official later explained that it was used for market value management.

There are two unimaginable points here. One is that smart contracts can be decrypted at will, treating miners and retail investors as tender leeks. The other is that a king-level project actually needs market value management? After all, the term market value management is particularly applicable to those plate projects. I have never heard that Vitalik wants to manage the market value of ETH.

There is another point that may not be correct. This project is a purely domestic project and has almost no popularity overseas. It is a domestic top-level project. So, do you want to buy some to support domestic projects?

Currently, the project is facing collective boycott from miners, which can be described as internal and external troubles.

On the evening of October 17, a report was circulated in WeChat Moments: Five leading miners of the Xianhe Group collectively stopped operations in protest. For example, Zhihe Cloud's mining machines dropped sharply from more than 8,000 to 276, and the equivalent of 1,475 and other four mining machines has been reduced to 0. The equivalent of Shikong Cloud's mining machines has also dropped from more than 11,000 last night to 1,870 now. In addition, many companies have chosen not to increase their computing power.

On October 15, the effective computing power of the entire network was 566.9PIB. Today, this figure is 594.6PIB. Therefore, many miners currently have no passion for mining new mines.

In my article a few days ago, I mentioned the words of a miner and trader who had invested a lot of enthusiasm and energy in IPFS in the past and also made a big bet, but he sighed helplessly before the mainnet was launched, and has now clearly started shorting contracts. I personally started shorting since the day before yesterday, and the 10X contract has tripled - so to a certain extent, I am also a vested interest, please do not simply invest based on my views.

3. Unbelievable reasons

The reason for the current miners' strike is actually easy to explain. On the one hand, the cost price of private placement is very low, and the coins they have are being unlocked. They are at the top of the food chain and can ship at any time. Even now, they can get extremely high returns.

On the other hand, the miners had dug up a lot of coins in the early stages, and they originally wanted to sell them, but the project team made a rule that shocked the miners, which was that after the mainnet was launched, if you wanted to continue mining, you had to pledge a large amount of coins. The demand for this coin was far from enough even if the miners used all the coins they had mined to pledge.

So miners have no choice but to buy coins on the market. Where do the coins on the market come from? They are in the hands of project owners and private equity institutions. Miners have invested huge amounts of money to support the ecosystem, but now they have become the first round of buyers. They are unwilling and dare not. Now no one dares to pull the price because the force of shipment is too great.

During this process, the ones who suffer the most are the retail investors who bought cloud computing power. Now the mining efficiency displayed in the background is either zero or extremely low. They only have two choices: either take over in the secondary market or accept the loss.

In fact, this is the first time I have seen such a naked harvesting project. In the past, the EOS project was not really a harvesting project. After all, it only did one thing, drawing cakes, collecting money, and then did nothing. There was no forced buying or selling, so there was not much to say about being harvested. But now FIL is much more powerful than the EOS project. Either you are harvested by me, or continue to be harvested by me, or get out.

Moreover, I have doubts about the project itself. For example, regarding cloud data and cloud storage protocols, you insist that IPFS will become the next generation of Internet protocols. I think you simply don't take Google and Alibaba Cloud seriously. Don't Google and Alibaba take cloud storage and next generation protocols seriously? The team in the currency circle that is heavily invested in shipments is more powerful and pays more attention. I always feel that sometimes the truth is quite simple - please note, I emphasize again that I can't predict the price of currency circle projects. I only state the facts. Please don't use it as a basis for investment.

Some miners have voiced strong resistance. For example, Lai Chuhang, the founder of the IPFS China community and chairman of Spacetime Cloud Technology, posted on WeChat Moments: "The mainnet is online, and all miners are stopped there. It's really not a so-called 'protest', it's helplessness! No one has coins for mortgage mining! Stupid X PL (head of the protocol lab), stupid X economic model!"

In addition to expressing disgust at swearing, the project team also proposed a plan, namely the FIP004 proposal, which is expected to be passed next week. At that time, 25% of the coins mined by miners will be released in advance, so miners can buy fewer coins, which is slightly beneficial to miners.

However, now perhaps only the bravest gamblers dare to add mining investment, and mining and selling commissions has become the best option.

In addition, I have said before that the target price of FIL is 5U, but I will correct it today to 8U, because as the market stabilizes, the rebound should be faster - but this price does not mean that it will go straight from now on, the road is tortuous and the future is dark.

Finally, let’s review Peter Lynch’s words:

Watch out, next generation Internet protocol.