One-third of Bitcoin’s computing power has migrated, and the price of S9 has risen instead of falling. Will there really be another battle next year?

Now is the time when we are “out of breath”. Miners need to be upgraded, but the production capacity is insufficient and the purchasing power is insufficient. The dumping of S9 has not yet occurred, and its price has even increased recently.

A mining city is a mining city. In the past week, Sichuan and other southwestern provinces have entered the dry season. The mining machines in the local water-rich mines have to be shut down and removed from the shelves, and moved to thermal power mines in the northwest or left for sale. As a result, the computing power of the entire Bitcoin network has fallen. The average computing power in the past 7 days has fallen from 150Eh/s to 133.3Eh/s, a drop of 8%. And the decline is still in the context of the soaring price of the currency. Last week, Bitcoin started a blood-sucking market, breaking through $12,000 and $13,000 in 4 consecutive daily lines, and closing up 13.5% on the weekly line.

"The price of coins has risen a bit recently, which has reduced the number of shutdowns," believes Pan Zhibiao, founder of Biyin.

So what impact will the dry season have on miners, mining machines, and the computing power of the entire network? Let’s see what the veterans in the mining circle have to say.

The hashrate of the three major Bitcoin mining pools dropped by 20%, while the hashrate of Ethereum remained unchanged

This Monday, Odaily Planet Daily counted the computing power changes of the top five mining pools in the past week. The results showed that compared with last Monday, the computing power of the top three mining pools, namely Poolin, F2pool and BTC.com, all dropped by more than 20%. Huobi, which ranked fourth, saw a smaller drop in computing power (18%), while Ant Pool, which ranked fifth, saw an increase instead of a decrease.

After 7 days, the difficulty of the entire network is expected to decrease as the computing power decreases.

Bitcoin has its ups and downs, what about Ethereum?

From the data, the total computing power of Ethereum network is still maintained at a historically high level, and has not dropped significantly. In this regard, a graphics card miner said that due to the high requirements for stability and environmental humidity, a considerable number of miners do not participate in the flood-dry migration. Therefore, this node will not have a significant impact on the total computing power of the network.

Data from: sparkpool; Time: October 26, 15:00

1/3 of Bitcoin's hashrate joins the migration

The transition period between dry and rich seasons was undoubtedly a tough job for the miners who joined the migration team. Any delay on the road or a problem with the machine would result in a significant loss.

The recent outbreak in Kashgar, Xinjiang may affect the relocation of some miners.

Shenyu, the founder of F2Pool and Cobo Wallet, complained to miners on Weibo

According to Zhu Yu, co-founder of Inbit and Biyin, the relocation period is expected to last for a month. During this period, the computing power of the entire network will show a V-shaped trend of first decreasing and then increasing.

As for how much the total network computing power will drop, Ant Pool co-founder Tian Xin predicted that the lowest level may drop to around 100Eh/s, and another head mining pool operator also told Odaily Planet Daily this number. In this way, the relocated computing power can account for 1/3 of the total network computing power (although old mining machines will not participate in the flood-dry conversion on a large scale, a considerable part of them will also flow into the second-hand market, change of ownership or export, which can also be regarded as a kind of relocation). In addition, two senior miners made slightly conservative estimates, believing that the scale of this flood-dry relocation may account for 20-30% of the total network computing power.

In short, there is no doubt that this planned action will lead to a decrease in computing power, and this month will become the golden period for mining for "year-round electric miners."

According to the statistics of the mining website, the theoretical income of Bitcoin in the past 30 days has been rising steadily due to the increase in the price of the currency, and the maximum income per T day can reach 0.65 yuan/day, which is a 33% increase compared to the low point. As for how much dividends this Fengku relocation will bring, we might as well wait a month to see.

Data from: wabi.com; Time: October 26, 12:00

After the relocation, Zhu Yu believes that the computing power of the entire network will rise back to above 115Eh/s.

The update speed of mining machines is limited. Will S9 be able to continue to perform next year?

According to experience, the dry season in the past has always triggered a wave of machine purchases, because higher thermal power prices require miners to have mining machines with lower power consumption and computing power ratio in order to obtain higher profits. However, this year, this situation may not happen.

Firstly, there is insufficient production capacity, and more importantly, there is no explosive growth in demand from miners.

A Bitcoin miner staff member told Odaily Planet Daily that "since the beginning of this year, mining machines have been in short supply. Even now, the futures mining machines of several major manufacturers have reached February next year. The main problem is production capacity, not sales exceeding expectations. Antminer has not received a large number of orders because the settlement is not yet clear; Shenma is affected by Samsung's serious lack of production capacity, and the same is true for us."

Chen Lei, founder of BitBlueWhale, concluded, “Purchasing power is the real problem. China’s veteran miners have experienced the 312 crash, halving, and are facing the pressure of rapid depreciation of mining machines. They do not have sufficient motivation and confidence to buy mining machines.”

Anticipating that "the speed of machine upgrades will be limited", many miners did not immediately sell their Ant S9s.

According to the mining revenue calculator, at the current high coin price (US$13,000), the electricity price must be lower than 0.26 yuan/kWh to power up the S9, but miners can hardly get this price. The current managed electricity price of thermal power mines is generally between 0.34 yuan/kWh and 0.36 yuan/kWh, so the S9 cannot run at all.

Therefore, for S9s that cannot be powered on by thermal power plants, there are currently only three options. First, they can flow to mining farm owners with lower electricity prices. This has already happened during the flood season this year. During the dry season, many mining farms still have a small amount of load that can be operated. Second, they can flow to overseas markets where electricity prices are lower. Third, they can flow to longs who want to buy mining machines at the bottom and wait for the price of coins to rise before selling or mining again. "It depends on personal strategy."

Under the game of many parties, the expected dumping of S9 did not appear in the market. Not only that, Wu Ke, co-founder of Bihuo Technology, a mining machine distributor in Huaqiangbei, told Odaily Planet Daily that because the price of the currency is improving, the price of S9 has increased in recent days. "The lowest point was just over 100 yuan, and now it is 200 to 300 yuan."

As for whether the S9 can be turned on next year, some miners said they would not rule out the possibility. But Wu Ke was not optimistic.

"It is highly unlikely that they can be mined in China. Even if there is abundant water and low-priced electricity next year, people would prefer to configure machines with higher returns. There is not much point in keeping the S9 and tying it up."

Unexpectedly, the S9, which was thought to have survived this year's flood season, was not really "executed" during the dry season. If it can still be started next year, it means that the pace of the mining industry has really slowed down a lot.