This article was originally written by IPFS Force Zone Recently, Filecoin miners have generally experienced large fluctuations in income and slow growth in computing power. What is the reason? Based on recent data including the available balance of miner accounts, the top ten richest people, and orphan block statistics, the author draws analytical conclusions for community reference. 1. There are about 200,000 FIL remaining in the miners' accounts of the whole network, which can provide 28.09PiB computing power growth According to filscan.io data on November 2, there were a total of 15,867 miner accounts on the network at that time, with a total account balance of 14.72 million FIL, and a total mortgage of 14.52 million FIL, accounting for 98.63% of the total balance. The available balance of miners in the entire network is 202,511 FIL. According to the current mortgage amount of about 0.22 FIL per sector, the computing power can continue to grow by 28.09PiB. Top 10 list of miners with available balance, source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-11-02 The top ten miners have a total available balance of 78,116 FIL, accounting for 38.57% of the total available balance of miners (202,511 FIL). So, in addition to the FIL in the hands of miners, how much FIL is actually circulating in the market? 2. Who are the top ten richest people? Filscan.io shows that there are 26.15 million FIL in all accounts on the chain. Excluding the official account balance (3.77 million FIL) and the miners' account balance (14.72 million FIL), there are 7.64 million FIL in circulation in the market. The top ten of this part account for 79.07% (a total of 6.04 million FIL). The following is a statistical table of the top ten IDs on the rich list. Top 10 richest non-miner accounts, source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-11-02 From the statistical table, we can see that the top four are Huobi, Binance Exchange and the official market value management account. The official market value management account (f033493) has been reduced from the original 1.5 million FIL to 657,000. Through transfer analysis, most of the FIL in the official market value account has been transferred to Huobi or Binance Exchange. The following is an analysis of several other accounts:- f0419** and f0297** are suspected to be multi-signature accounts. These two accounts only have propose and send records, and they are mainly transfers. The balances of these two accounts have been increasing, and it is suspected that a large account has been depositing funds;
- f0335** may be an account of other exchanges or a large-scale arbitrage address. This account has a large number of transfer records from Binance and the official market value management account, which may be arbitrage behavior; it may also be an account of the exchange, serving the needs of users to transfer money.
- f0346** is suspected to be the account address of f0100*. The main transfer records of this address are the mutual circulation of FIL on Huobi, Binance or Gate. Among them, f0100* transferred 3,500 FIL into Gate, and then transferred out 3,500 FIL intact. There are many such operations; there are also some small transfers to f0345**, which is suspected to be a possibility of cooperation;
- f0400** is suspected to be the account of a new miner f049**4 and f049**1. This account mainly transfers money from Huobi, and then mortgages f049**4 and f049**1. Among them, only f049**1 has increased its computing power since October 23, and its current computing power scale is 1.25PiB, while f049**4 has not increased its computing power;
- f0540** is most likely the account of f0303**. This is because f0540** was mainly transferred from FIL on Huobi, and then transferred to f0303** miner to increase computing power. Currently, the total computing power of this miner is 3.23 PiB.
3. A large number of orphan blocks leads to a reduction in miners’ income rewards Illustration of orphan blocks, source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-11-02 What is an orphan block? As shown in the figure above, after the miner completes data packaging, windows & winning time-space proof and obtains packaging permissions, it cannot be successfully broadcast to the Filecoin network, and thus cannot obtain the final reward. Total revenue and orphan block ratio from October 20 to November 1 (UTC), source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-11-02- The upgrade of Lotus 1.1.0 directly led to a significant reduction in miners' income. Recently, it was discovered that the miners' income has decreased, mainly because the total income of miners has decreased. Starting from October 23, the reward output decreased by 16.89% (25,312 FIL) from 149,851 FIL (October 22). The main reason for this problem is that a bug occurred after the upgrade of Lotus 1.1.0, and a large number of block broadcasts failed, resulting in the inability to synchronize the chain. After the upgrades of Lotus v1.1.1 and v1.1.2 in the following two days, the situation was restored on the 25th. Among them, Lotus v1.1.1 mainly increased the number of winning ticket blocks. Before the 24th, an average of 4.164 tickets were issued per height, and after the 25th, an average of 4.859 tickets were issued per height;
- The miners of the entire network lose nearly $300,000 in revenue every day. From October 20 to November 1, the average daily number of orphan block tickets accounted for 7.89% of the total daily ticket issuance. At $30/FIL, 1,105 FILs are lost every day, which is about $310,000 in revenue. However, the revenue from these orphan blocks will still be released through later mining, but the halving cycle has been delayed.
4. Three-party game, miners compromise and move forward In summary, there are three major events in recent times:- The coins in the miner accounts are difficult to maintain the growth of computing power, and can only provide 28.09PiB computing power growth. However, through observation, the author found that many wallets holding coins in non-miner accounts are "secret" accounts of miners, in case of emergency;
- The top ten non-miner accounts account for 79.07% of the circulating coins in the market. The market is greatly affected by these accounts.
- The average number of orphan block tickets from October 20 to November 1 accounted for 7.89% of the total daily ticket issuance, which will result in a significant reduction in miners' profits in the short term.
In general, miners, investors and Protocol Labs have formed a three-party game. In order to ensure the stability of technology and a large enough storage scale, Protocol Labs has put forward KPI-like computing power growth requirements for miners; investors are mainly divided into two types, one is miner investors, and the recent "coin withdrawal tide" of miner investors has resulted in insufficient coins for miners to pledge, and the other is coin hoarders in the secondary market, resulting in a small number of circulating stocks in the market; in order to meet the pledge, miners must realize the early realization of miner investors, and move forward in a compromise in the dilemma. PS: This article is only for industry research and is not intended as investment advice. |
