During the BTC bull market, which concept currencies rose?

The dispute over the US election has not yet ended. Biden has begun to appoint consultants to review the operation of various government agencies, and Trump is busy suing several key states for irregularities in ballots... Whether or not several states are allowed to recount the votes, there should not be a big reversal. However, the current trend of Bitcoin has begun to deviate from the US stock market, and the market's focus has also returned from traditional finance to major events in the circle, such as the pledge of the ETH 2.0 beacon chain and the latest Uniswap proposal. So is the rising market during this round of the US election over? Which sectors or currencies are the main forces of the rise?

This issue of Feixiaohao Research will take you to review the current round of rising market and find out the important conclusions that may have an impact on investment decisions.

First, we need to define a time range for this round of price increases, and treat the currency market fluctuations that occur within this time range as samples for data analysis. By looking at the daily level market of Bitcoin, we believe that the start time of this rise should be set as: October 3rd - November 11th , exactly about a month.

It can be clearly seen that BTC has been climbing up since October 3rd.

So how did the currencies in different sectors perform in the rising market? We calculated the growth of all sectors during this period and got the following figure:

1. The currencies that are predicted by the market have the highest increase?

As can be seen from the figure, not all sectors will change in the same direction as the BTC market. After the BTC market started, the sectors with a positive overall return rate only accounted for about 20% of all sectors. (The legendary Bitcoin blood-sucking market)

However, this data result does not reflect the linkage between the sector and BTC, because the sector with the largest cumulative increase of 86% is the [Market Forecast] sector, and the surge in this sector is more related to the US election. Predicting who will be elected is a hot topic in the market.

REP is the leading currency in this sector

In fact, there is almost no necessary connection between the rise of BTC and the rise of the [Market Forecast] sector. BTC rose because of the rise of US stocks during the presidential election and the increase in risk aversion in the market; the latter is because every time a major event like a competition becomes a hot spot in the market, the currencies of these forecast concepts will rise due to hype or retail investors' attention and speculation, so before the arrival of major events, it is indeed worth paying attention to the currencies in this sector.

As for the fact that the second-highest gainer is the AI ​​sector? I can only say that it is a bit mysterious... ahem. Let's look at the bottom three sectors that fell instead of rising:

They are DEX (decentralized exchange) which fell by -37.45%, DAO (decentralized governance) which fell by -35.55%, and NFT (non-fungible token) which fell by -30.15%. People who often hang out in the currency circle should know that these three belong to the concept of "DeFi". I guess this is mostly because when BTC rises, it will significantly suck the blood of small copycat coins, especially those DeFi coins that were born in July and August. When its money-making effect disappears, retail investors will have a strong risk aversion sentiment and return to mainstream currencies.

We continue to analyze the data to see which sectors have the largest increase in individual currencies among all the currencies that have entered the sector. The results are not much different from the above picture. The sectors that gave birth to the largest increase in currencies are: AI, market forecast, and game concept.

So what can be used as a reference is that you can pay attention to the currencies with large increases in several sectors with large increases. In theory, they may be correlated with the BTC market. Of course, it is also possible that these currencies have some recent movements.

In the APP, you can slide the bar at the top of the homepage to see the rise and fall of all sectors in the concept rise and fall

After analyzing the rise and fall of different sectors, we also need to know which of these sectors will start first when BTC rises and the big market starts? Which sectors’ rise means that the market has come to an end?

2. Will DeFi concept currencies avoid BTC market?

Through data analysis, we found that several sectors that will follow the rise after BTC has a wave of market trends all start their market trends after BTC.

On the contrary, sectors such as Defi and NFT, which did not see a significant and general rise during the BTC rising cycle, completed their rise before BTC rose.

Unfortunately, it is not possible to see which sector will end earlier when the BTC market ends.

Combined with the above analysis, we found that the rise and fall of the DeFi concept seems to be negatively correlated with BTC, that is, when BTC rises, DeFi currencies are likely to be sucked away, and when BTC stops rising, DeFi currencies begin to show vitality. This phenomenon looks like a power game between old investors who support mainstream currencies and new investors who support DeFi currencies.

If we remove the concept of sectors and analyze the rise and fall of the top 100 currencies by market value, which individual currencies have risen the most in this market?

3. What are the top 5 currencies with the highest growth?

We selected the top 100 mainstream and sub-mainstream currencies by market value, counted the growth data in this market, and found that the top five in terms of growth are: CVC, AAVE, GNO, DCR, and WAVES.

The CVC with the highest increase is actually on November 6, when Coinbase announced that it would support Civic (CVC) on Coinbase.com and Coinbase Android and iOS applications, so its recent increase reached 233.61%, but its increase has no essential connection with the BTC market;

AAVE ranks second because on October 11, LEND began to migrate to AAVE, with a migration exchange ratio of 100:1, that is, every 100 LEND will generate 1 AAVE after migration and exchange.

The third ranked GNO is the prediction market. We have already talked about why the currencies with the prediction market concept will rise during the presidential election.

DCR, ranked fourth, is a BTC altcoin, founded by several Bitcoin core developers. They left the Bitcoin core team due to dissatisfaction with the current situation of Bitcoin and could not stand the Bitcoin core team monopolizing Bitcoin software development, so they created the DCR project. So DCR can be said to be following the rise of BTC.

WAVES, ranked fifth, is a public chain currency. We speculate that it may be developing cross-chain technology in the near future, which is in line with the current popular Layer2 track, so the increase is also considerable.

All the above analysis is for learning purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. We would also like to remind everyone that the recent BTC market has been volatile and you must pay attention to risks.