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As the ETH 2.0 beacon chain enters the genesis stage, media and influencers are also intensively publishing content related to ETH2.0. However, judging from the content published, especially the data involved, the data has been intentionally or unintentionally exaggerated.
Such exaggeration may help to attract attention for the outputter; but for individual investors, if they rashly participate in ETH2.0 staking operations based on such exaggerated data, they may regret it in the future. But what's the use of regret? Before entering Phase 2, the staked ETH cannot be redeemed. Conservative estimates show that the freezing period is 1-2 years. Therefore, before deciding whether to participate in staking, individual investors absolutely need to understand the real ETH2.0 related data.
There is a lot of content about ETH2.0, but at this stage, for individual investors, what they want and should know most is the possible staking rate, possible rate of return, and current data.
Below, I will briefly list them.
The official entry of ETH2.0 is marked by the launch of the beacon chain. In the future, the beacon chain will also serve as the network control center of the entire POS chain. The launch of the beacon chain requires a minimum staking threshold of 525,488 ETH. So far, the number of ETH staked has just exceeded 70,000.
The launch date is December 1st, and it is expected that the requirements will be met smoothly. The early progress was slow, mainly because some large ETH users who intend to participate will choose to stake before the deadline for consideration of fund utilization.
If calculated based on the lowest starting threshold of 32*16384 (i.e. 525488 ETH), the staking yield is approximately 23%.
However, the staking yield of ETH2.0 is a process that continues to decay as the amount of staking increases.
Therefore, many articles wrote that the staking rate is expected to reach 50% soon, and according to the benchmark of an excellent POS project, the staking rate should reach 70%. Obviously, Ethereum is excellent, so it is no problem to reach a staking rate of 70%. At the same time, it is also written that the potential rate of return is calculated at 15% and the staking rate is 50%. The annual income of staking reaches 2.8 billion US dollars. If the node service provider charges a 20% commission, the annual income is 570 million US dollars.
The above calculation is obviously wrong. Here are a few problems:
1. It is unlikely that Ethereum will reach a 50% pledge rate, and 70% is even more unlikely.
There are several reasons. Ethereum chips are dispersed due to the precipitation of time; at the same time, the scene consumption brought by multi-purpose has already had obvious ecological basic token attributes. The reason why many POS projects we have seen (such as iris, cosmos, dot, etc.) have reached a pledge rate of 50% or even 70% is partly because they started to launch the node pledge function from the beginning of their launch, and the chips were concentrated. There are almost no other usage scenarios, and most users' tokens can only choose to be pledged for value preservation.
As for ETH, project fundraising, transfer fees, contract transactions, DEFI, NFT, CX disk, etc. all take up a considerable proportion. Of course, this is only part of it.
Therefore, it is necessary to point out that when we look at the ETH2.0 pledge rate, we need to treat it differently from other traditional POS projects. For ETH, the ideal state is to achieve a pledge rate of 30%-45%; and Rome was not built in a day, and the early milestone target is 10 million, about 9% pledge rate.
2. Regarding the pledge yield, it is not as sexy as imagined.
According to the algorithm mentioned above, if the staking amount reaches the interim target of 10 million ETH, the corresponding rate of return is about 5.7%; if the staking amount reaches 30 million ETH, the corresponding rate of return is only 3.3%.
Let's extrapolate. According to the current price of ETH, when the stake reaches 10 million, the overall income is 260 million US dollars, and the commission of the staking service provider is calculated at 20%, which is about 52.44 million US dollars. When the stake reaches 30 million, the overall income is about 455 million US dollars, and the commission income of the staking service provider is about 91 million US dollars. This is very different from the data listed in many articles mentioned above. It should also be noted that the above values are theoretical maximum values, and the actual values are likely to be smaller.
Why do we emphasize staking service providers here? The reason is that in the process of ETH2.0, due to the special validator settings, this role is bound to appear, and there are already some staking service providers or staking platform projects that have issued tokens in the market. When studying these projects, data such as yield, pledge rate, commission income, etc. will be important fundamentals and ceilings of such projects.
When we are subjectively optimistic about an opportunity or project, it is easy to idealize and take everything for granted. This is of no help for investment and may even be misleading. |
