Ordinary people have no destiny with Bitcoin

The year of 2020, which was full of disasters, has come to an end. It has not been easy for everyone this year, but fortunately we have survived. The recent trend of digital currencies has also been very good. Bitcoin is just one step away from the high point of the previous round. Although the outside world is still very calm, some friends in the circle have already started to watch the car and the watch.

There has always been a joke that the rise of Bitcoin has nothing to do with retail investors, who hold "precious value coins". Last week, I had an idea and sent a real-name vote in several WeChat groups to see how much of everyone's BTC position in digital currency was. In the end, nearly 500 people participated. The participants should be considered relatively active cryptocurrency users who have not left this circle in the past three years.

The voting results were somewhat unexpected. 52% of people hold less than 10% of their BTC positions, 7.6% hold between 10% and 30% (also the lowest proportion), 14.8% hold between 30% and 50%, 15.7% hold between 50% and 80%, and 9.2% hold more than 80%.

The first thing I didn’t expect was that a considerable proportion of people still have high BTC positions, with 40% exceeding 30%. It seems that most people are still joking and making a fortune in silence.

Secondly, the amount of BTC positions seems to divide the crowd into two categories. A considerable number of people hold almost no BTC. After the vote was issued, many people asked why there was no 0% option. Of course, this was also a joke, but I asked several people privately and they really didn’t have any BTC at all, for a variety of reasons.

The other category is those with quite high BTC positions. Currently, it seems that they are mainly old investors. Those who have experienced several cycles will feel that BTC is still reliable, so they have kept a lot in their position configuration.

I would like to add here that for many friends who hold about half of their positions in BTC, the other half is mostly in ETH, which means they have two beliefs at the same time, practicing both magic and martial arts.

My voting sample is still too small. I once asked the founder of a wallet company, who started very early, and the data they gave was even more shocking. They estimated that among all the users in China who have held digital currencies, less than 10% have held BTC.

In the past few years, I have talked about digital currency with many friends. My recent feeling is that maybe ordinary people are really not meant to be with BTC.

Even though BTC has been around for ten years, it is still a very new thing. There has never been such a thing in history, and it is naturally difficult for ordinary people to understand such a new thing.

Not only is BTC new, but it happens to be in an interdisciplinary field. To fully understand it, one needs to have a certain knowledge reserve in finance, technology, and social psychology. There are not many people with such reserves, and many of them are stubborn and have their own opinions, which will screen out a considerable number of people.

The combination of these two attributes, which have never been seen before, makes it very difficult to predict the development of BTC. Many people think they understand it, but later find out that they don’t understand it at all, and then there is no more.

BTC also has another property that is very unfavorable for long-term holding, that is, it can rise and fall sharply. Even people with a high risk appetite find it difficult to tolerate the pace of BTC, which rises 100 times in one year and then falls 90% in the next year. Ordinary people can only stay away from such assets.

Once, we talked about "the first magical experience with BTC". At that time, I felt that people who believe in BTC are more or less like believers, who have experienced something like a "miracle" at some point. Otherwise, it would be too difficult to hold it for a long time. Only the irrational belief of "faith" can support you all the way.

The past ten years have passed, and BTC has grown into a young man, with a group of younger brothers around it. I am very confident about what these digital currency boys will do in the next ten years.

The long summer is coming.