Trend analysis: Bitcoin's sharp correction makes the "bulls" take a holiday without thinking? The fundamentals are still very good

BTC is close to the previous high of 200 points and the correction is more than 5%

Bitcoin has been rising from 10,000 to 19,490 in the past two months. It is only 176 points away from the historical high of 19,666 in 2017. The three-year high is just around the corner.

Before setting a new record high, there will always be some people who hesitate, and it is also customary to consolidate near special points. Some people take profits to avoid risks, while others take a pullback to look ahead.

Bitcoin is the leader, which is equivalent to the market index in stocks. If the leader falls, confidence will be insufficient. The market falls slightly, and the small market falls sharply. Bitcoin falls 5%, which is two or three times that of other currencies. This time, A-shares also fell for two days.

Bitcoin fundamentals are excellent

We believe that Biden, who supports digital currency, has been officially elected, and China has also congratulated him, unless the KGB can find evidence of cheating by the Democratic Party. China is also preparing to strengthen supervision, and the funds that are foresighted are probably already running away with Bitcoin.

The United States is going to celebrate Double Eleven, and Grayscale and others will definitely not enjoy the blessing of 996. There is one less brainless bull in the market, and the bears will take the opportunity to play their part. The exchanges will also cooperate to boost the longs by 20 times and pick up some chips.

Conclusion: In the long run, any pullback is an opportunity to buy, especially for real estate such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Other high-quality innovative currencies can also be considered for accumulation.

Bitcoin price relationship

Judging from the data of mainstream trading pairs this month, funds are in an inflow state and the increase is not much different. Except for xrp and xlm, which have increased by more than 2 times, the other currencies are all below 1.5 times.

Conclusion: The capital flow has changed from the previous period, which mainly flowed into BTC and ETH. Now mainstream currencies have received capital support, and XRP and other currencies have even gone out of independent market conditions. Even if the correction in the past two days is taken into account, the increase is still a lot.

K-line analysis

We know that there will be a pullback near the previous high, but it is most valuable to know where to start the pullback. After the pullback is over, we also need to pay attention to where to continue entering.

Daily K-line data shows that this wave of Bitcoin's rise has not yet ended, and the MACD yellow and white lines of the two trends before and after the center have not shown any divergence, so there is no need to worry about the long term.

The 2-hour K-line shows: after the 2-hour central axis broke through, the MACD yellow and white lines and the column area both showed divergence, and the first type of selling point appeared. This is the point where we should sell.

After selling at the first type of selling point, the pullback does not reach the center, indicating that the trend is still relatively strong, forming the third type of buying point, buy, and then the K-line exceeds the previous high, forming a consolidation divergence, forming the second type of selling point, sell.

After selling at the second selling point, the price falls back to the center. There is no 2-hour level buying point, so we continue to observe. As for the precise grasp of the buying and selling points, we look at a smaller and more detailed chart.

The 15-minute K-line shows that segment 2 exceeds the high point of segment 1, and compared with the MACD indicator, it forms a consolidation divergence. The interval set can also be used to see that within segment 1, the red segment 2 is consolidating and diverging relative to the red line 1.

Conclusion: The reason for the decline in the past two days is the divergence on the two-hour K-line. It is highly likely that the divergence will pull back to the center of the divergence level, and the reality is that it will pull back to the center.

Summarize

Bitcoin has good fundamentals. The reasons for the callback in the past two days are as follows:

1. It has reached the previous high, only less than 200 points away.

2. A divergence occurred at the 2-hour level.

3. It is also a possible factor that bulls are taking a break during the holidays.

Long-term: Consistent with the conclusion of the previous period, the fundamentals of Bitcoin and Ethereum are real estate and value investment. The price ratio also shows that funds continue to flow in. There is no divergence above the daily K-line.

Mid-term: Don’t sell unless it falls below the 5-day moving average. If it falls below the 5-day moving average, you can sell half of it and wait until it stabilizes on the 5-day moving average before buying again. Although this method is not very accurate, it is simple and very cost-effective.

Short-term: After the 2-hour level divergence returns to the center, the center oscillation is a high probability event. After that, it will expand to a larger level of the center, or the third type of buying point will appear when it rises, or the third type of selling point will appear when it falls. (Special author: Zhao Yutao Editor: Wu said blockchain)