Grayscale succeeded in its holiday air raid, but is there another reason behind the waterfall?

The first day that Brother Hui is away, I miss him.

Hello everyone, I’m Pepe who knows nothing about Bitcoin. I didn’t expect that one day I would have to understand overseas customs and habits before I could trade in cryptocurrency. Thanksgiving in the United States is on the fourth Thursday of November every year, and the holiday lasts until Sunday. In other words, we have to wait until next Monday afternoon to know whether Grayscale will make any moves again [crack].

In the first round of the Grayscale vs. Xu Star battle, it seemed that Xu Star had won. The onlookers flooded the screen with messages expressing two strong wishes. One was whether Grayscale could work overtime, preferably three shifts. For an index fund that tracks stocks and trades globally 24 hours a day, it actually still follows the traditional trading hours of stocks. What can it track? It's unheard of.
The second is to hope that a joint petition will be signed to send Lao Xu back. Pepe also feels that it is quite nice to hold the happy beans. Anyway, they are usually placed on the platform to facilitate capturing some instant opportunities, and are rarely mentioned [covering face].
Of course, this could also be a coincidence. In order to avoid a run on the withdrawal of coins, this routine can be regarded as a joke. The one that had a greater impact on this ten-point drop that seemed to be what everyone was waiting for but was still somewhat unexpected was not OKEX, but the other largest exchange - Coinbase.
Today’s sharp drop came right after a series of tweets from the founder of Coinbase:

In this tweet, Brian shared some of his concerns about future regulation of the U.S. market, especially mentioning new regulations on crypto wallets . The general meaning is that in the future, if users want to transfer funds from exchanges like Coinbase to their own wallets, that is, the users keep the private keys and do not need any third-party permission, they will need to bind KYC to these private wallet addresses, otherwise they will not be able to withdraw money.

Brian believes that if such regulations are introduced in the future, it will have a long-term negative impact on encryption and the United States, just like if the telecommunications sector had implemented a strict real-name system in the early days of the Internet, it might not have achieved the current scale and results.

Many overseas analysts believe that the potential content of this information has caused panic among some investors, leading to a price collapse.
How should I put it? This thing is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, strengthening supervision means that our market can move to a bigger stage. That's why we only see some institutional funds this year, rather than in 2017. There are also compliant exchanges and trust products. If the exchanges adopt stricter KYC, some exchanges, including the current major ones, may be able to get out of the gray area.
But it is true that if private addresses are required to use real names, it will also destroy the free and barrier-free nature of crypto assets, just like the coins purchased from PayPal cannot be withdrawn or transferred, and the account may be at risk of being frozen. It is difficult to say whether this is good or bad.
However, there is no need to worry too much about this. Brian is not the first to say this rumor. It is actually part of the proposal of FATF, an intergovernmental organization, on digital currency regulation. There was news about this in June 2019 (why does it seem like every time things get hot, some regulatory cooling water has to be poured on? Is that a coincidence?).
This thing is just an idea for now, and FATF is not a real regulatory agency. Even if it can be implemented in the end, it can only play a supervisory role and cannot decide whether countries will implement it.
What's more, it is very difficult to achieve, so the current concerns about this can only be said to be a bit groundless, and it can be understood as a kind of FUD (rumor). Just pay attention to the fact that there are still some regulatory uncertainties in the future (including defi). Although it may be far away, it will have some impact on the market.
There is also another saying in the market that this decline was not only affected by the remarks of the founder of Coinbase, but more likely came from CB's deleveraging. Due to compliance issues, all contract transactions were suspended indefinitely today. This may have triggered some liquidations, leading to an increase in short-term market selling pressure.
Another potential impact is that some analysts believe that a large part of Grayscale's arbitrage is likely to be directly borrowed from Coinbase, because the custody is also entrusted to them. Therefore, stopping all leveraged lending may partially affect Grayscale's future incremental entry. One piece of evidence behind this statement is that this time GBTC fell before BTC.

Comparing the first row above, we can see that the premium of Bitcoin has dropped by 14% compared to the previous day. Is this the case? We can only wait and see what happens with Grayscale next week.

However, as far as the current market conditions are concerned, we may not be able to say that the market will fall to 10,000 or 3,000 once it drops. In fact, as we said yesterday, this year's market has changed a lot in terms of capital compared to a few years ago. Even though we have not yet created a historical high, the market is now larger than it was three years ago.

As mentioned above today, there is still an element of FUD that causes panic. In addition, it was also mentioned yesterday that 20,000 U is a psychological barrier for the public , and some twists and turns are normal.

Here is a picture of milk:

This is the situation when we first approached the 2013 1100U historical high area four years ago, in early 2017. At that time, it collapsed directly from 1100 to 800U. But it was quickly repaired.

Currently, the weekly line of Bitcoin is still above the support level, and the greed index is still at a high level above 90. Let's see what tomorrow's update will be like. So in general, it means that it failed to reach the top this time and has to start again. We have to see what changes happen in the next week. Everyone should be patient. It's also a good idea to give yourself a holiday like foreigners these days.

Conclusion

Our market forecast on Monday seems to be surprisingly accurate? Hahaha, any similarity is purely coincidental. The market is always unpredictable, so don't try to guess, just go with it, and it would be even better if you can handle both ups and downs with ease. In fact, this time is also a reminder that no matter how many sponsors there are, there is never anything new in the financial market.