Thousand-point callback is imminent

Btc

NEWS

The performance of Bitcoin in the past two days can be described as dramatic. Although the market closed flat or slightly down, the intraday fluctuations were extremely violent. Most leveraged investors have deeply experienced what it means to "the price is still the same price, but the position is no longer there". The reason why Bitcoin fluctuates so violently is that the cumulative increase in this round of market is too large, and there is a huge disagreement between the long and short sides at this position. At present, although the capital giants on Wall Street are still one-sidedly bullish on Bitcoin, the confidence of the market bulls has begun to waver again as the 20,000 mark has not been conquered for a long time. So, has the market peaked?

01

Strategy Analysis

After Bitcoin broke through the historical high of 19875, all the historical locked-in positions of Bitcoin have been released. This means that whether the 20,000 that is only one step away from 19875 can be successfully taken is actually not of much significance. From the historical experience, before the long and short positions have not found a new balance point, it is extremely unlikely that the long positions will rashly launch a new round of market. Therefore, the author believes that before the volatility and trading volume have not dropped to a staged low, the market's shock adjustment has not ended.

Recently, the "compromise version" of the fiscal stimulus plan proposed by Democratic and Republican senators was rejected by the Senate again. However, under the influence of this news, U.S. stocks, gold, and crude oil recovered all their lost ground after a brief dive. The important reason why the market does not care about this bad news is that Biden will enter the White House in January, and the balance has tilted to the side that is favorable to Pelosi. At that time, the scale of the fiscal stimulus plan will be more generous than the current $900 billion. In general, unfulfilled good news is always good news. On the contrary, when the shoe drops, everyone should be cautious. Because with the gradual launch of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, the United States may get rid of the troubles of the epidemic ahead of schedule, which also means that the upcoming fiscal stimulus plan will be the end of this round of easing.

This week, Grayscale has accumulated 5,240 BTC, an average of about 1,750 bitcoins per day. Combined with the change chart of Grayscale BTC Trust holdings, we can see that Grayscale's pace of increase has slowed down significantly since Thanksgiving. If Grayscale cannot show a more active willingness to increase holdings at this point in the investor conference, then the slowdown in the pace of increase may be the norm for a long time. In this case, the growth rate of Bitcoin in the future market will most likely slow down gradually. However, although Grayscale has reduced the number of BTC holdings in the past two days, it has accelerated the purchase of ETH and LTC, which is also the reason for the strong trend of ETH and LTC. But will the market focus switch to mainstream currencies? We need to pay attention to Grayscale's next move.

As mainstream coins enter a rest period, new track varieties represented by SUSHI and KSM begin to be favored by funds. There are two main reasons why funds choose this field to break through: first, the circulation market value of these varieties is small, and the main funds are highly controlled; second, new themes cannot be falsified in the short term, and the story has room for fermentation. However, there are very few people who can really grasp this opportunity. After all, among more than 500 new coins, less than 1% of the varieties can be favored by funds. Therefore, unless investors are very familiar with this field, the chances of winning are not great.

In general, the logic supporting the long-term bull market remains unchanged. However, judging from the profit effect and trading volume, the market has entered a phase of gradual cooling. For investors who continue to operate with high positions, properly cashing in part of the profits is also a good choice to avoid the risk of price fluctuations.

02

Currency Market Trader

Market Analysis

BTC: Regardless of whether it can break through the 20,000 mark, Bitcoin will always have a pullback to 16,199. However, compared with the plunge on November 26, BTC's adjustment will be carried out in a way of exchanging time for space. The signal for the end of the adjustment is a significant reduction in volatility and a shrinking of trading volume to a staged level. The range of the pullback is 17,500-18,000.

ETH: The price is also $600. Compared with 2017 and 2018, the current ETH has undergone earth-shaking changes in fundamentals. Therefore, endogenous growth is the main driving force of this round of market. After the development of blockchain technology gradually entered the fast lane, the imagination space of ETH has expanded from the computer in the past blockchain world to the venture capital bank in the DEFI field, and this change took only one year. From the perspective of growth, ETH is still the most promising public chain in the next five years. For mid- and long-term value investors, ETH has always been the best choice. Therefore, if ETH is linked to Bitcoin and adjusted downward, it is still a good buying opportunity.

XRP: It continues to fluctuate at a high level. There is a need for a secondary adjustment in the short term. It is not recommended to chase high prices.

FIL: FIL's performance is mediocre, but it has always been the first hot search on Huobi, which shows that the market's attention to FIL has been increasing. In addition, in order to resolve the financial pressure of staking FIL and accelerate the collection of funds, a large number of large miners gradually packaged and sold part of their computing power to downstream small and medium-sized investors. With the continuous entry of small and medium-sized investors, the computing power of the Filecion network has been rising steadily, and the number of FIL pledged in the entire network has also increased rapidly, and factors that are favorable to the market have continued to accumulate. At this time, if there is a sudden increase in volume, it is often the beginning of a new round of market conditions.

LTC: Grayscale has slowed down its purchase of BTC, but has increased its purchase of LTC, an alternative, which seems to be a move of buying high and buying low. If Grayscale's buying interest can continue in the future, LTC still has the potential to rise.

EOS: Continue to go with the flow, participation is not recommended.

DOT: A new round of rise is possible only after the upper shadow of November 30 is repaired.

LINK: There is still a second pullback after the rebound, so it is recommended to exit.

HT/OKB: Under this round of regulation, the varieties that were mistakenly killed by the market have room for valuation recovery in the future. From the repurchase data for November released by OK yesterday, the top centralized exchanges continue to operate well, and Huobi's data is expected to be good in the future. It is recommended to buy in batches at low prices.