Hashrate Market Weekly Report (2020.11.27-2020.12.04)

About BTC hashrate market:

Summary: The combined effects of the new mining machine supply vacuum in December and the high price of BTC will lead to a high probability that the price of mining machines will continue to rise.

As of the date of publication on December 4, the top three BTC mining machines in terms of profitability are still: S19, S19Pro, and M30S.

This week, the BTC price fluctuated between 18,000 and 19,900. The mining machines still made considerable profits every day, and the prices of mining machines also rose steadily. The price of S19 rose by 13.33%, and the price of S19Pro rose by 9.26%.

This week, the BTC price rose by 12.06%. The daily gross income of each S19Pro, S19, and M30S is 104.84 yuan, 90.45 yuan, and 83.79 yuan respectively, and the corresponding payback period is 279 days, 263 days, and 230 days respectively. It can be seen that the market quotation for mining machines is still mainly based on controlling the payback period, which is controlled within 250-280 days.

Chart citation: veryhash.com

The supply of the above three types of mining machines in the market is the same as last week. There is no spot, and users can only choose futures or second-hand mining machines. Through research on the mining industry, it is known that Bitmain's production capacity in December has been packaged by major customers, and the production capacity of Shenma M30S series until March next year has been packaged by major customers. Therefore, throughout December, there is no competitor in the market for Ant's stock machines. Before the 5nm chip is put on the market, holding S19 is still a good choice. As of the date of publication, the second-hand spot price of S19 is 23,800 yuan, the futures price in January is 21,200 yuan, and the futures price in February is 20,500 yuan.

Through research on mining machine manufacturers, we learned that the production capacity of Bitmain S19 and S19Pro in January 2021 is about 30,000 units, of which 10,000 units are packaged by major overseas customers, more than 10,000 units are supplied to major domestic customers, and only 7,000 to 8,000 units flow into the retail market. As of the date of publication, there are about 2,000 Antminer futures that have not been booked in the market for January 2021. According to market conditions, December is a rare vacuum period for BTC mining machines, so until the delivery of futures in January next year, the price of mining machines is likely to continue to rise.

About ETH hashrate market

Summary: The price of ETH has rebounded significantly this week, and the price of ETH mining machines has also been rising steadily. Like BTC mining machines, the payback period is still controlled at around 300 days.

As of December 4, the top three ETH mining machines in terms of profitability are: Wolf God B3, Innosilicon A10Pro, and Ethereum Bull Z7. Since the market share of Ethereum Bull Z7 is relatively small and there is not much supply on the market, its reference value is ignored.

ETH mining machines are essentially the same as BTC mining machines, and are both affected by the rise in coin prices and the supply of mining machines. This week, the price of ETH rose by 19.45%, and the daily gross income of each Wolf God B3 and Innosilicon A10Pro was 117.19 yuan and 153.41 yuan respectively.

The price of Langshen B3 increased by 1%, and the price of Xindong A10Pro increased by 1%. There is no spot in the market, and the earliest futures are at the end of December. The payback period of Langshen B3 and Xindong A10Pro is 325 days and 276 days respectively.

Chart citation: veryhash.com

This week, a new model created by Innosilicon appeared on the market - the improved version of A10, which means that the original A10 was returned to the factory for update and upgraded to 6G. The computing power is still 500M, and a half-year warranty is provided. This greatly improves the computing speed. The most important thing is that there is spot stock and the price is not high. The spot price is 28,000 yuan. Calculated at an electricity price of 0.35 yuan/kWh, the daily electricity bill is only 7.22 yuan, and the payback period is 340 days. However, this model is a helpless move by Innosilicon to supplement the out-of-stock market. The specific performance of the mining machine remains to be verified. In addition, there will be more futures deliveries of ETH mining machines in December, so the price will definitely change significantly. As of the date of publication, the second-hand spot price of Wolf God B3 is 38,000 yuan, and the futures price of Innosilicon A10pro at the end of December is 40,000 yuan.

About Filecoin Hashrate Market

Summary: Filecoin GAS fees fluctuated greatly this week, which had a significant impact on many miners.

Chart reference: https://filfox.info

The above picture shows the data from 2020.11.27, and the picture below shows the data from 2020.12.04. By comparing the two pictures, we can find that the effective computing power of the entire network has increased by 120P this week, an increase of 11% over last week, the number of miners has decreased by 12, and the pledged amount of Fil has increased by 7.74%. This shows that the Filecoin network still maintains a relatively high growth rate.

Chart citation: veryhash.com

The above picture shows the price fluctuation of fil coin this week. Generally speaking, it is in a flat trend and has not been greatly affected by the rise of BTC. It has developed an independent trend.

Chart reference: https://filfox.info

According to the data from Feihu Browser, we can see that the gas fee of the entire network has fluctuated greatly during this period. According to the Filecoin project model, gas consumption is the cost that the entire network should bear. Each node on the network must spend storage and computing resources to verify each message and maintain the consistency of the network. If everyone wants to transfer money as soon as possible in a short period of time, the transfer fee will rise sharply. The fluctuation of transfer fees is actually a market-based adjustment. When the network is congested, the gas fee will rise sharply. When the network is idle, the fee will be relatively stable. The reason why the gas fee has risen by tens of thousands of times this week is that someone has forced other miners to follow suit by continuously increasing the gas fee and sending a large number of transactions to achieve the goal of attacking the network. Of course, this is a practice that harms others and does not benefit oneself, and the possibility of occurrence is also extremely low. In a short period of time, there are relatively dense messages on the chain throughout the network. Everyone wants to complete the transaction as soon as possible, so they compete to increase the fee, which leads to large fluctuations in the network fee. The increase in Filecoin network gas fees means that when packaging messages, more gas fees need to be paid to complete sector encapsulation, which directly leads to more costs for miners to increase and maintain computing power. Of course, account returns will fluctuate in a short period of time.

Finally, it is important to remind you that the increase in gas fees, like the market fluctuations of other currencies such as BTC, is an automatic adjustment process of the entire Filecoin ecosystem. There is no need to pay too much attention to short-term fluctuations. Only by firmly holding on to the long term can you maximize your investment returns.