The market sentiment remains greedy after the volume surged and the market fell back under pressure

Blockchain Secondary Market Report for Week 51, 2020

December 15, 2020 - December 22, 2020

Key points of this report:

• This week's market trend: high volume and pressure correction, market sentiment remains greedy

• Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges increased by 65.43%

• Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets increased by 28.84%

• Exchange wallet balance: USDT balance increased by 3.498%, USDT circulation increased by 2.35%

• USDT premium rate: The premium rate fluctuated widely, and maintained a positive premium in the late trading

• Bitcoin Volatility Index: Volatility Index fluctuates widely, market sentiment is extremely greedy

• Futures contracts: Large volume and narrow fluctuations, the market continues to be bullish in the long term

• Macro perspective: All kinds of risk assets rose, and Bitcoin rose alone

• Summarize

Details of this report:

1. Market trend this week: high volume and then pressured correction, market sentiment remains greedy

As of the reporting statistics time (December 22, 2020), the average total market value of global blockchain assets this week was US$613.143 billion, up 11.89% from last week's average; the market's 24-hour trading volume this week averaged US$157.45745 billion, up 32.61% from last week's average.

As of the reporting time, the latest point of Tokenmania 8-week market index is 12.32%, the latest point of Tokenmania 32-week market index is 10.73%, and the latest point of Tokenmania 60-week market index is 10.20%.

This week, the market surged and then fell, and the overall market fluctuated at a high level. The market trading activity increased, and investor sentiment remained extremely greedy. At the beginning of the week, the market started from around 560 billion US dollars, entered a rapid upward channel, and broke through the 600 billion and 650 billion US dollars mark successively, reaching a high of 671.5 billion US dollars. Then it consolidated at a high level for 4 days, and the overall market value basically remained above 640 billion US dollars. It fell back and consolidated again in the late trading, closing at around 630 billion US dollars. The daily average of the total market value increased by 11.89% compared with last week. In the external market, all kinds of risky assets generally rose this week. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting basically met market expectations, maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the range of 0%-0.25%. At the same time, it will continue to purchase at least 80 billion US dollars of US Treasury bonds and at least 40 billion US dollars of institutional mortgage-backed securities every month. The three major US stock indices rose collectively, and gold rose by more than 2.3%, rising for three consecutive weeks.

Judging from the market, the price of Bitcoin continued its previous upward trend this week and continued to increase in volume, breaking through the resistance zone of 22,000 and 24,000 US dollars in one go, and the highest point was close to 24,200 US dollars, setting a new historical high. However, with the dramatic fluctuations in the external financial market, the price of Bitcoin fell back from the high in the late trading, and rebounded after falling to the 21,900 line. Overall, it is currently in the adjustment stage after the high, and multiple attacks on highs have failed to continue to break through effectively, and the bullish momentum has weakened to a certain extent. The current accelerated layout of institutional funds is still a key factor in the rise of Bitcoin. This week, the total transaction volume of Bakkt Bitcoin Monthly Futures increased by more than 29% compared with the previous week. OTC funds continued to increase their holdings of Bitcoin. The Fear & Greed Index remained above 90 points this week. The short-term market maintained a bullish sentiment. Grayscale and other institutional funds accelerated their entry last week (due to the lifting of the ban on GBTC in the last half-year cycle, Grayscale announced on Monday that it would not accept new investments at present, but GBTC holders usually buy back Bitcoin in the secondary market after the arbitrage is completed after the ban is lifted). In the medium and long term, the upward trend remains unchanged; but considering the approaching Christmas option delivery date, accompanied by the increase in resistance to profit-taking, it is necessary to guard against possible short-term counterattacks and callback risks. The key support level is $20,000, and it is possible to participate on dips. In addition, Bitcoin futures saw a short-term spike again this week, and the overall basis volatility of Bitcoin futures has increased. Investors are advised to pay attention to risks and reduce leverage.

Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 2 Bitcoin price changes this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges increased by 65.43%

This week, the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges was RMB 2,534.38 billion, up RMB 1,002.392 billion from last week, an increase of 65.43%. From the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges in terms of trading volume were Binance (39.17%), Huobi (29.73%), and OKEX (21.50%). The trading volume of the top three exchanges accounted for 90.40% of the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges, and the proportion of the top three exchanges decreased by 0.03% from last week; Binance's cumulative trading volume this week increased by RMB 370.523 billion from last week, an increase of 59.56%, Huobi's cumulative trading volume this week increased by RMB 312.363 billion from last week, an increase of 70.81%, and OKEX's cumulative trading volume this week increased by RMB 222.837 billion from last week, an increase of 69.17%.

Figure 3 Changes in total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4: Changes in the total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer time perspective, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of February, the market was positive under the expectation of production cuts, and the volume was simultaneously enlarged; in March, the global epidemic spread globally, and the global capital market experienced large fluctuations and panic declines. Crypto assets were also hit hard under the liquidity crisis, with daily trading volume reaching as high as 400 billion yuan; as the policies of many countries around the world continue to exert their strength, global assets gradually bottomed out and stabilized under strong stimulus, and global risk appetite gradually recovered. There are obvious signs of bottom-fishing funds in the crypto market. After the panic decline ended, the trading volume of the nine major exchanges fell below 200 billion yuan; before the halving of Bitcoin, the market volume and price increased, but for a period of time after the halving, the market reaction was flat, the volatility narrowed, and the overall range was oscillating, and the trading volume showed a downward trend; after several weeks of range adjustment, the BTC price broke upward, and the price continued to rise this week. The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges this week was 362.054 billion yuan, an increase of 143.199 billion yuan from last week, an increase of 65.43%. Considering that there are currently large exchanges that have been swiping volumes, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

Global Bitcoin OTC trading volume fell by 0.302% to US$41.309718 million, China's Bitcoin OTC trading volume increased by 16.42% to RMB 12.415083 million, and Venezuela's Bitcoin OTC trading volume increased by 0.6899% to 589.13653 billion bolivars. Based on the current exchange rate between Venezuelan Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 160845VES), the OTC BTC trading volume in the past week was approximately RMB 36.2276 million.

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global transaction volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins trading volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins Venezuelan trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges are: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets increased by 28.84%

The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week totaled 370.46%, up 82.92% from last week, an increase of 28.84%; the highest turnover rate was 81.92%, the lowest was 31.80%, and the extreme value difference was 50.12 percentage points. Among them, BCH ranked first in terms of growth, with a cumulative turnover rate of 450.45% this week, up 84.26% from last week.

Figure 8 Changes in the average daily turnover rate of the top ten assets in the past two weeks

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 9: Details of turnover rates of the top ten assets in the past two weeks

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

The top three in terms of cumulative turnover rate this week are LTC (777.81% this week, up 264.02% from last week, an increase of 51.39%), ETC (700.23% this week, up 83.74% from last week, an increase of 13.58%), and EOS (590.78% this week, up 70.99% from last week, an increase of 13.66%); the bottom three in terms of cumulative turnover rate are BTC (68.53% this week, up 12.42% from last week, an increase of 22.14%), ADA (114.06% this week, down 12.45% from last week, a decrease of 9.84%), and XLM (137.85% this week, up 17.88% from last week, an increase of 14.90%).

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: USDT balance increased by 3.498%, and the total USDT circulation increased by 2.35%

This week, the BTC wallet balance of the exchange is 2.076 million BTC; the USDT balance of the exchange is 8.7905 billion USDT, an increase of 3.498% from the same period last week; the current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC-20) is 19.834 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.35% from the same period last week.

Figure 10 Changes in the total USDT balance on exchanges

Source: TokenMania

[Note] The exchange wallet balance is a comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, and OKEX.

5. USDT premium rate: The premium rate fluctuated widely and maintained a positive premium at the end of the trading day

The OTC premium rate reflects the premium level of OTC prices and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of OTC funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that OTC funds are actively entering the market, otherwise it means that OTC funds are not motivated to enter the market or even that funds are fleeing; the on-site premium rate reflects the premium level of on-site prices and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of on-site funds.

Figure 11 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

Source: Tradingview, TokenMania

This week, the USDT premium rate fluctuated widely, and maintained a slight positive premium at the end of the trading day. Kraken Exchange's USDT/USD trading pair opened with a premium of 0.05%, the highest premium of 0.30%, the lowest premium of -0.14%, and the closing premium of 0.03% this week; with the overall upward fluctuation of the market, the USDT premium rate fluctuated more this week, fluctuated upward, and maintained a positive premium overall.

[Note] When the USDT premium/discount index is 100, it indicates USDT parity. When the index is greater than 100, it indicates USDT premium. When the index is less than 100, it indicates USDT discount.

6. Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuates widely, and the market sentiment is extremely greedy

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market. The higher the value, the greater the disagreement on future market trends.

Figure 12 Daily Bitcoin BVOL 24H Volatility

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 13 Fear & Greed Index

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the Bitcoin Volatility Index fluctuated widely, and rose 4.6% at the end of the trading day compared with the same period last week; the opening value was 2.10, the highest value was 6.94, the lowest value was 2.02, and the closing value was 3.59; the Fear & Greed Index was 90 points 7 days ago, with the highest being 95 points and the lowest being 91 points this week. The latest Fear & Greed Index is 92 points, a slight increase from 90 points in the same period last week. As the Bitcoin price continued to rise after breaking through 20,000 points, market sentiment remained extremely greedy.

7. Futures contracts: large volume and narrow fluctuations, the market continues to be bullish in the long term

From the perspective of futures contracts, the market volume continued to expand this week, contracts of different maturities maintained premiums, and the market continued to be bullish in the long term. This week, the total transaction volume of Bakkt Bitcoin Monthly Futures was US$166 million, up 29% from the previous week; at the same time, the Chicago Exchange Group (CME Group) announced that it would launch Ethereum futures on February 8, 2021. From the perspective of the term structure, this week, OKEX's weekly contracts had an average premium of 0.43%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points in premium; the average premium of the next week's contracts was 0.92%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points in premium; the average premium of the quarterly contracts was 4.66%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts was 0.19%, a decrease of 4.74 percentage points in premium. This week, OKEX's weekly contract prices were latest premiums of 0.38%, the next week's contracts were latest premiums of 0.88%, and the quarterly contracts (delivered in March of the following year) were latest premiums of 4.74%. This week, the volatility of the forward contract basis weakened (the surge in the premium of the current quarter's contracts was due to the shift in statistical data from contracts for delivery on December 27 to contracts for delivery in March of the following year). Market sentiment remains extremely greedy. Futures investors are advised to pay attention to risks, strictly control positions, select the best platform, and guard against margin calls caused by pin callbacks and platform crashes.

Figure 14 Bitcoin futures and spot price trends in the past two weeks

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 15 Bitcoin futures premium/discount rate in the past two weeks

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premiums and discounts in the report are calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data.

8. Macro perspective: All kinds of risk assets rose, and Bitcoin rose alone

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worth partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated asset returns of various assets reflect the importance of asset allocation. Funds are allocated among different asset classes according to investment needs. As the combination of asset classes diversifies, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk.

This week, all kinds of risk assets generally rose. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was basically in line with market expectations. The three major U.S. stock indexes rose collectively, and Bitcoin rose alone. The Federal Reserve's last interest rate meeting in 2020 was basically in line with market expectations, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0%-0.25%, and continuing to purchase at least $80 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds and at least $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities each month. In terms of U.S. stocks, U.S. stocks rose collectively this week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.44%, the S&P 500 up 1.25%, and the Nasdaq up 3.05%. Tesla was officially included in the S&P 500 index on Monday; market expectations for the United States to introduce more stimulus measures and the decline in the U.S. dollar both supported gold prices, with COMEX gold futures closing up 2.34% at $1,886.8 an ounce, rising for three consecutive weeks; COMEX silver futures rose 7.92% for the week to $26 an ounce; the central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar was raised by 90 basis points this week; in terms of domestic stock markets, financial stocks were sluggish this week, while cyclical stocks rose against the market trend, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.43%, the ChiNext Index rose 3.46%, and northbound funds made net purchases of 8.5 billion yuan this week.

Figure 16 Comparison of dynamic returns of various assets this week

Source: Tonghuashun, TokenMania

Comparing the dynamic yields of various assets in the past three years, Bitcoin's yield performance stands out. In the past three years, the dynamic yield of Bitcoin was 3761.11%, ranking first among all assets, and there was a large gap with the yields of other assets. Except for digital currencies, the yields of other assets showed differentiation. The performance of US stocks was relatively good, with the S&P 500 index rising by 38.45% and the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 83.25%. In addition, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.26% and gold rose by 48.78%.

Figure 17 Comparison of dynamic returns of various assets in the past three years

Source: Tonghuashun, TokenMania

Among all types of assets, the market value of digital currencies is the most volatile. In the process of bubble expansion and bubble bursting, the price of digital currencies has shown a trend of skyrocketing and plummeting. Since 2020, the market has been affected by the liquidity crisis brought about by the global epidemic, and Bitcoin has experienced a sharp correction; recently the market has risen sharply, and the price has hit a record high, but in the long run, digital currencies are at a relatively low valuation. With the extrusion of bubbles, digital currencies are worth partial allocation.

9. Conclusion

Market trend: The market surged and then fell this week, and the overall market fluctuated at a high level. The market trading activity increased, and investor sentiment remained extremely greedy. At the beginning of the week, the market started from around 560 billion US dollars, entered a rapid upward channel, and broke through the 600 billion and 650 billion US dollars mark successively, reaching a high of 671.5 billion US dollars. Then it consolidated at a high level for 4 days, and the overall market value basically remained above 640 billion US dollars. It fell back and consolidated again in the late trading, closing at around 630 billion US dollars. The daily average of the total market value increased by 11.89% compared with last week. In the external market, all kinds of risky assets generally rose this week. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting basically met market expectations, maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the range of 0%-0.25%. At the same time, it will continue to purchase at least 80 billion US dollars of US Treasury bonds and at least 40 billion US dollars of institutional mortgage-backed securities every month. The three major US stock indices rose collectively, and gold rose by more than 2.3% for three consecutive weeks.

Judging from the market, the price of Bitcoin continued its previous upward trend this week and continued to increase in volume, breaking through the resistance zone of 22,000 and 24,000 US dollars in one go, and the highest point was close to 24,200 US dollars, setting a new historical high. However, with the dramatic fluctuations in the external financial market, the price of Bitcoin fell back from the high in the late trading, and rebounded after falling to the 21,900 line. Overall, it is currently in the adjustment stage after the high, and multiple attacks on highs have failed to continue to break through effectively, and the bullish momentum has weakened to a certain extent. The current accelerated layout of institutional funds is still a key factor in the rise of Bitcoin. This week, the total transaction volume of Bakkt Bitcoin Monthly Futures increased by more than 29% compared with the previous week. OTC funds continued to increase their holdings of Bitcoin. The Fear & Greed Index remained above 90 points this week. The short-term market maintained a bullish sentiment. Grayscale and other institutional funds accelerated their entry last week (due to the lifting of the ban on GBTC in the last half-year cycle, Grayscale announced on Monday that it would not accept new investments at present, but GBTC holders usually buy back Bitcoin in the secondary market after the arbitrage is completed after the ban is lifted). In the medium and long term, the upward trend remains unchanged; but considering the approaching Christmas option delivery date, accompanied by the increase in resistance to profit-taking, it is necessary to guard against possible short-term counterattacks and callback risks. The key support level is $20,000, and it is possible to participate on dips. In addition, Bitcoin futures saw a short-term spike again this week, and the overall basis volatility of Bitcoin futures has increased. Investors are advised to pay attention to risks and reduce leverage.

Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges increased by 65.43%. The total trading volume of the nine major exchanges this week was RMB 2,534.38 billion, an increase of RMB 1,002.392 billion from last week, an increase of 65.43%. From the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges in terms of trading volume are Binance (39.17%), Huobi (29.73%), and OKEX (21.50%). The trading volume of the top three exchanges accounted for 90.40% of the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges, and the proportion of the top three decreased by 0.03% from last week; Binance's cumulative trading volume this week increased by RMB 370.523 billion from last week, an increase of 59.56%, Huobi's cumulative trading volume this week increased by RMB 312.363 billion from last week, an increase of 70.81%, and OKEX's cumulative trading volume this week increased by RMB 222.837 billion from last week, an increase of 69.17%.

Global Bitcoin OTC trading volume fell by 0.302% to US$41.309718 million, China's Bitcoin OTC trading volume increased by 16.42% to RMB 12.415083 million, and Venezuela's Bitcoin OTC trading volume increased by 0.6899% to 589.13653 billion bolivars. Based on the current exchange rate between Venezuelan Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 160845VES), the OTC BTC trading volume in the past week was approximately RMB 36.2276 million.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets increased by 28.84%. This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated to 370.46%, an increase of 82.92% from last week, an increase of 28.84%; the highest turnover rate was 81.92%, the lowest was 31.80%, and the extreme value difference was 50.12 percentage points. Among them, BCH ranked first in growth, with a cumulative turnover rate of 450.45% this week, an increase of 84.26% from last week.

The top three in terms of cumulative turnover rate this week are LTC (777.81% this week, up 264.02% from last week, an increase of 51.39%), ETC (700.23% this week, up 83.74% from last week, an increase of 13.58%), and EOS (590.78% this week, up 70.99% from last week, an increase of 13.66%); the bottom three in terms of cumulative turnover rate are BTC (68.53% this week, up 12.42% from last week, an increase of 22.14%), ADA (114.06% this week, down 12.45% from last week, a decrease of 9.84%), and XLM (137.85% this week, up 17.88% from last week, an increase of 14.90%).

Exchange wallet balance: USDT balance increased by 3.498%, and USDT circulation increased by 2.35%. This week, the exchange BTC wallet balance was 2.076 million BTC; the exchange USDT balance was 8.7905 billion USDT, an increase of 3.498% over the same period last week; the current USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC-20) was 19.834 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.35% over the same period last week.

USDT premium rate: The premium rate fluctuated widely, and maintained a positive premium at the end of the trading day. This week, the USDT premium rate fluctuated widely, and maintained parity at the end of the trading day. The USDT/USD trading pair on the Kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.11% this week, with a maximum premium of 5.00%, a minimum premium of -0.19%, and a closing premium of 0.09%. With the continued rise of the market, the USDT premium rate has increased recently, and has generally maintained a positive premium range.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuated widely, and the market sentiment was extremely greedy. This week, the Bitcoin volatility index fluctuated widely, and the closing price rose by 4.6% compared with the same period last week; the opening value was 2.10, the highest value was 6.94, the lowest value was 2.02, and the closing value was 3.59; the fear & greed index was 90 points 7 days ago, the highest this week was 95 points, and the lowest was 91 points. The latest point of the fear & greed index was 92 points, a slight increase from 90 points in the same period last week. With the Bitcoin price breaking through 20,000 points and continuing to rise, the market sentiment remained extremely greedy.

Futures contracts: This week, the market volume continued to expand, contracts of different maturities maintained premiums, and the market continued to be bullish in the long term. This week, the total transaction volume of Bakkt Bitcoin monthly futures was US$166 million, up 29% from the previous week; at the same time, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group) announced that it would launch Ethereum futures on February 8, 2021. From the perspective of the term structure, this week, OKEX's weekly contracts had an average premium of 0.43%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points in premium; the average premium of the next week's contracts was 0.92%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points in premium; the average premium of the quarterly contracts was 4.66%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts was 0.19%, a decrease of 4.74 percentage points in premium. This week, OKEX's weekly contract prices were latest premiums of 0.38%, the next week's contracts were latest premiums of 0.88%, and the quarterly contracts (delivered in March of the following year) were latest premiums of 4.74%. This week, the volatility of the forward contract basis weakened (the surge in the premium of the current quarter's contracts was due to the shift in statistical data from contracts for delivery on December 27 to contracts for delivery in March of the following year). Market sentiment remains extremely greedy. Futures investors are advised to pay attention to risks, strictly control positions, select the best platform, and guard against margin calls caused by pin callbacks and platform crashes.

Macro perspective: This week, all kinds of risk assets generally rose. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was basically in line with market expectations. The three major U.S. stock indexes rose collectively, and Bitcoin rose alone. The Federal Reserve's last interest rate meeting in 2020 was basically in line with market expectations, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0%-0.25%, and will continue to purchase at least $80 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds and at least $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities each month. In terms of U.S. stocks, U.S. stocks rose collectively this week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.44%, the S&P 500 up 1.25%, and the Nasdaq up 3.05%. Tesla was officially included in the S&P 500 index on Monday; market expectations for the United States to introduce more stimulus measures and the decline in the U.S. dollar both supported gold prices, with COMEX gold futures closing up 2.34% at $1,886.8 an ounce, rising for three consecutive weeks; COMEX silver futures rose 7.92% for the week to $26 an ounce; the central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar was raised by 90 basis points this week; in terms of domestic stock markets, financial stocks were sluggish this week, while cyclical stocks rose against the market trend, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.43%, the ChiNext Index rose 3.46%, and northbound funds made net purchases of 8.5 billion yuan this week.

Risk Warning

Price correction risk

Domestic and foreign regulatory policies exceeded expectations

Changes in the international geopolitical environment are beyond expectations

Risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

Disclaimer

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