Daily Market Analysis | As the option delivery date approaches, BTC is expected to fluctuate widely

Trump's postponement of the economic stimulus bill, the out-of-control epidemic in the UK, and the US SEC's accusation that Ripple illegally sold XRP as a security are the main reasons for the recent market decline. Among them, the US SEC's accusation against Ripple actually has a very large impact. In addition to BTC being considered a commodity, many tokens including Ethereum have not yet been clearly considered as securities. This is also the main reason why BTC is particularly strong, while most mainstream currencies such as ETH are very weak. It is particularly important to note that as Christmas approaches, institutional holdings slow down, and the option delivery date approaches, a large number of options are facing delivery, and BTC may experience large fluctuations.

From a fundamental perspective, the market is in a state of panic, but funds are beginning to build positions, and BTC is performing strongly, which is worth paying attention to. Short positions are dominant in the contract market, but the strength of long positions has increased, and the market is bullish. The number of BTC holding addresses has stabilized and rebounded, but there has been a large-scale outflow of BTC locked in DeFi, which shows that the market panic has increased significantly, but large funds have been increasing their holdings and building positions.

From the technical chart, BTC has now fallen below the trend line and MA5, and the support level below is MA10 (near $22,600). The market is in a state of panic, and mainstream currencies are generally falling. Overall, BTC has relatively limited room for decline, and the market outlook tends to fluctuate widely. Mainstream currencies are affected by XRP and have further room for decline. BTC's support level below is $22,000, and the resistance level above is $24,500.

summary

1. Trump's postponement of the economic stimulus bill, the impact of the epidemic, and the US SEC's accusation that Ripple illegally sold XRP as securities are the main reasons for the market crash.

2. Currently, short positions dominate the market, but the strength of longs has increased. The ratio of long and short positions is fluctuating at a high level, and the market's bullish sentiment has recovered.

3. Amid the market crash, Bitcoin miners’ sentiment to hoard coins has increased, which shows that miners are optimistic about the future market, with a net accumulation of 366 BTC in the last 24 hours.

4. The number of BTC holding addresses stabilized and rebounded, but there was a large outflow of BTC locked in DeFi, which shows that market panic sentiment has risen sharply, but large funds have begun to gradually increase their holdings and build positions.

5. BTC continues to fluctuate at a high level, there are serious signs of capital flight in mainstream currencies, off-market attention continues to decline, on-market buying power weakens, and the market is slightly weak in the short term.

6. BTC has currently fallen below the trend line and MA5, with the support level below being MA10 (around $22,600). The market is in a state of panic, with mainstream currencies falling across the board, with XRP falling the most significantly. The support level below BTC is $22,000, and the resistance level above is $24,500.

7. Today, the main crypto indexes in the crypto market plummeted, and the mainstream index with large market capitalization - BTC fell significantly, among which XRP still fell the most, BTC performed strongly, and the overall signs of capital flight were still serious.

1. Macro Market and Cryptocurrency News

On the 22nd local time, Trump rejected the $900 billion economic stimulus plan agreed by Congress, calling it a "shame" and asking lawmakers to pay more than three times the relief money to the American people, which to some extent affected the market's risk appetite. But more importantly, the British virus mutated, the epidemic got out of control, and the epidemic risks faced by many countries around the world increased significantly; in addition, the US SEC believes that XRP is a security and has filed charges. Many exchanges are considering delisting XRP, and many market makers are considering stopping trading XRP, which directly led to a sharp drop in XRP. In fact, in addition to BTC being considered a commodity, many tokens including Ethereum may be considered securities, which is also the main reason why BTC is particularly strong, while most mainstream currencies such as ETH are very weak.

2. Contract Indicators

According to coin data, as of 14:00, the ratio of long and short positions of BTC in the entire network is: long 49.26%, short 50.74%. At present, short positions are dominant in the market, but the strength of long positions has increased. According to OKEx contract data, on the hourly chart, the ratio of long and short positions has risen and is currently fluctuating at a high level. Overall, short positions are dominant in the market, but the strength of long positions has increased. The ratio of long and short positions is fluctuating at a high level, and the market is bullish.

3. Miner Cumulative Indicators

According to Bytetree data, from the cumulative data of miners' production and selling, it can be seen that miners as a whole mainly hoard coins, and the amount of miners' selling has dropped significantly, with a net accumulation of 366 (199 yesterday) BTC in the last 24 hours. Overall, under the market crash, Bitcoin miners' hoarding sentiment has increased, which shows that miners are optimistic about the future market, with a net accumulation of 366 BTC in the last 24 hours.

4. On-chain indicators

According to Oklink data, by observing the number of addresses holding coins, it can be seen that the number of BTC holding addresses has stabilized and rebounded, and the market's confidence in holding coins has gradually recovered. The locked amount of BTC anchored assets in DeFi was 141,230 yesterday and 138,806 today (as of 14:00), a net decrease of 2,424 compared with yesterday. Overall, the number of BTC holding addresses has stabilized and rebounded, but there has been a large-scale outflow of BTC locked in DeFi, which shows that market panic has risen sharply, but large funds have begun to gradually increase their holdings and build positions.

5. Fear Index and Buy/Sell Strength Index

According to alternative.me data, today's Fear and Greed Index is 86 (yesterday's 93), which is lower than yesterday, and market sentiment has fallen back to a certain extent. According to Baidu search index, Bitcoin search volume continues to fall, and market attention continues to decline. According to coin data, as of 14:00, USDT funds had a net outflow of 50.72 million. The current RSI 14 (Relative Strength Index of Buying and Selling) is 67 (yesterday's 71.4), and buying power has weakened. Overall, BTC continues to fluctuate at a high level, and there are serious signs of capital flight from mainstream currencies. Off-site attention continues to decline, and on-site buying power has weakened. The market is slightly weak in the short term.

6. Moving average indicator

From the technical chart, BTC has currently fallen below the trend line and MA5, and the support level below is MA10 (around $22,600). The market is in serious panic, and mainstream currencies are generally falling, with XRP falling the most significantly. The support level below BTC is $22,000, and the resistance level above is $24,500.

7. Mainstream assets and popular currencies

According to Chainext data, the main crypto indexes in the crypto market plummeted today, and the decline of the large-cap mainstream index-BTC was very obvious, among which XRP still had the largest decline, BTC performed strongly, and the overall capital flight was still serious. In the past 24 hours, only OKB (0.28%) rose among the top 100 currencies.

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