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This article was originally written by IPFS Force Zone As the blockchain market becomes more and more popular, many new investors have begun to learn about Filecoin and try to invest in mining. This article mainly summarizes some important knowledge points, including baseline, total reward trend, Fil/T trend income and input-output ratio, so that everyone can have a deeper understanding before investing in Filecoin. 1. Baseline: Not set in stone According to the Filecoin economic model, the income of Filecoin storage miners is divided into simple release and baseline release. Simple release accounts for 30%, while baseline release accounts for 70% (affected by the baseline standard). Many people think that the benchmark is immutable, but this is not the case. If the actual network scale does not meet the network baseline requirements, the release of the baseline part will be limited. When the computing power scale of the entire network reaches the baseline standard, the total daily income will be greatly improved. This total income is not a sudden process, but a process of gradual release as the scale grows. For detailed process, please review: " Filecoin baseline standard adjustment, how much impact does it have on miners' income?" How is the current baseline calculated? Source: spec.filecoin.io, 2020-12-17 Baseline change is an exponential growth process, with an annual growth rate of 100%. The Filecoin document mentions that the current baseline calculation formula is (where t is the number of seconds at that height, b0 is the initial baseline 2.50571167981217EiB, and e is a constant): So let's find g. Given the formula (ga is the annual growth rate of 100%): Substituting in, we can obtain g=ln2/31536000s. It is known that the current height is 359030, that is, t=359030*30=10770900s. Substitute Therefore, at an altitude of 359030, the baseline standard value is 3.17501502411888EiB. How will the benchmark affect the baseline yield? About 37.91% of the baseline release amount is released Because we know that 70% of the FIL revenue released every day is affected by the baseline, so how much of the baseline has been released so far? According to our rough calculations, due to the limitations of the baseline network, the actual rewards released by the baseline are about 37.91% of the baseline part, and most of them have not been released. In the future, as the computing power scale exceeds the baseline standard, the block rewards released to miners will increase. According to the current computing power growth (700TiB/H), it is expected to meet the baseline network requirements in May 2020. Daily total reward release forecast (time inflection point is not used as investment reference), source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-12-28 Future daily total reward trend forecast: As the scale grows, the total reward will grow. The increased rewards mainly include two parts: returning to the normal baseline network level and the delayed release of the part that did not meet the baseline standard before. However, it is not an infinite growth. When the effective time is close to the natural time, the daily reward will gradually decrease and return to the normal 6-year halving release cycle. FIL/T forecast (the time inflection point is not used as an investment reference), source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-12-28 As the total reward increases, it is predicted that the single T revenue will rise to a certain extent, and after the rise, it will gradually decrease slowly. In general, only the computing power that is deployed in advance can catch up with the growth area of the single T revenue. 4. Input-output ratio per year Some people may be concerned about what the future returns will be if they start investing now? Based on the current data, a rough calculation is made, with the following known premises: the effective computing power income per T is 0.14 FIL/day, the computing power growth mortgage is 8.2304 FIL/T, the computing power growth fee is 9.12 FIL/T, the computing power is maintained at 0.000668880374627501 FIL/T/day, the unit price of FIL is 150 yuan, and the computing power cost per T is 2,000 yuan. Current setting conditions, source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-12-28 Annual expenditure per T: computing power cost + computing power growth mortgage + computing power growth fee + computing power maintenance * 365 = 17.59 FIL + 2000 yuan ≈ 4639.18 yuan; single T income = single T daily income * 365 + computing power growth mortgage = 59.33 FIL ≈ 8899.56 yuan, the income is 91.83%, which will be fully obtained after one and a half years of mining. In the first year, about 40.8975 FIL can be withdrawn, about 6134.63 yuan, and a profit of 32.24% can be achieved in the first year. PS: The above are all based on predictions and calculations based on the current computing power scale. The inflection points and calculations are not used as investment references, but only for research and analysis.
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Tip: Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market. This article is not intended as investment and financial advice. |
